With US equity indexes closing moderately higher, the VIX was still broadly subdued, having made a new cycle low of 13.06, but settling -1.9% @ 13.56. Near term outlook offers some equity weakness, with a push higher in the VIX to the 18/19s. Sustained action >20 looks difficult for another few weeks.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*I adjusted the descending trendline on the daily chart.. as we broke a new cycle low today.
As of the April 1st' open, VIX bulls need to see 15s to offer any opportunity of the upper teens next week.
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Suffice to add.. it was pretty incredible to see the VIX almost break into the 12s this morning.
Yet.. we did see a turn around 11am. The 14/15s look viable tomorrow/Friday.
US equities closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2063 (intra high 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers an overdue retrace, at least to the 2000/1990 zone, which would likely equate to VIX 18/19s.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: micro chop... leaning a touch lower into the close.. but clearly, nothing of any significance.
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Another day for the equity bulls, but with a moderate hint that we might have seen at least a short term high - as reflected in a great many black-fail candles.
In theory, there is potential for broad declines tomorrow.. to the 2040/35 zone. Even if that is the case, that will make for a monthly close above the 10MA... and that is a problem.
US equities remain moderately higher, but price momentum still appears to be swinging back toward the equity bears. VIX is choppy, but holding above the earlier low of 13.06. A move into the 14s, whether into the close/tomorrow will offer some provisional clarity.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
The hourly 10MA will be around sp'2060 across the closing hour.
Any close in the 2050s would be...useful to those bolding still holding short.
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I've been browsing a fair few of my company charts... CAT is a fair example for today...
A new cycle high of $77.25, but the daily black-fail candle bodes in favour of the bears tomorrow. First support is the 72/71 zone.. where the 200dma is lurking.
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3.23pm.. Gold -$15.... miners GDX -1.8%.... and that is despite another day lower for the USD, -0.3% in the DXY 94.80s.
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As for equities, so much for leaning lower into the close. Annoyingly, with still no sustained downside power.. we're back to sp'2068..... a mere 4pts shy of the earlier new cycle high.
Whilst equity price momentum is now in the process of swinging back toward the bears, there is notable weakness in WTIC oil, which has swung from early gains of almost 3% to currently -0.7% in the $39s. The $40 threshold remains pretty strong resistance.
USO, daily2
NYSE comp'
Summary
*note the current black-fail candle for the NYSE comp', which could even turn red by the close.
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Equity bears should be seeking a few daily closes back under the 200dma for each of the main indexes, and its notable for the sp'500, that is currently @ 2016.
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Not much to add.
With two hours to go.. considering the hourly equity/VIX cycles, there is serious threat of a marginal net daily decline for most indexes, with VIX set for the 14s.. whether by the close.. or tomorrow.
In theory... the hourly MACD cycle offers increasing downward pressure into the Thursday/March close.
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US equities remain moderately higher, but there are clear reversal candles appearing all over the place. A net daily decline in the sp'2055/45 zone now looks probable. VIX is similarly offering a key floor of 13.06, a daily close in the 14s would give provisional clarity.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
I guess you could say, this is 'marginally' more interesting than the 11am hour.
We have clear turns on the hourly equity and VIX MACD cycles. Often, we'll get some hours of chop to solidify a floor/ceiling.
Regardless... with 3 hours to go, even a marginal net daily decline would no doubt spook some of the more twitchy bull maniacs.
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notable reversal... BA, daily
Having decided to fire 4000 people, we've seen a strong swing from the $132s to 128s. Its a very long way just to reach the Feb' low of $102.
*note the daily MACD cycle, set to turn negative late today/early tomorrow. Next support will be the 50dma in the 122/120 zone... and that is a clear 4% lower.
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US equities have cooled from a morning high of sp'2072 to 2063. VIX is similarly offering a turn, from a new cycle low of 13.06. Equity bears should remain desperate for a marginally red close.. with VIX back in the 14s. That sure won't be easy, but cyclically, the setup now favours the bears.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*notable weakness, Gold -$15, with the miner ETF of GDX -2.9% ... but more on those later.
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Things are indeed 'marginally interesting' with a natural turn from 11am.
Overall though.. I'll take things seriously once I see VIX 14s, with sp'2040s. That would give initial clarity that a retrace might finally be underway.
In any case... a red daily close is clearly now viable.
US equities are holding broad gains, with the sp +14pts @ 2069. It is notable that the Nasdaq comp' is making a serious attempt to clear major resistance at the 4900 threshold. VIX is confirming the near total market complacency, having broken a new cycle low of 13.19.
Nasdaq comp', daily
VIX'daily3
Summary
We've another oil inventory surplus, but a mere 2.3 million barrels. It would seem anything under 5 million is now treated as bullish for oil. Clearly, the $40 threshold is offering some resistance though.
Right now, a daily close back in the sp'2050s would be something for the equity bears.
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notable strength: FCX +3% in the $10.40s, as even the Cramer is touting 'FCX will make it'.
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Here in London city...
Spring sunshine, and summer warmth might be just 3-4 weeks away.
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time to cook
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11.10am.. Metals sure are weak today... Gold -$14... Silver -0.5%.
That is not helping the miners, GDX -1.8%... although not yet negating even half of yesterday's gains.
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11.27am... VIX trying to floor from 13.06.
60min
Kinda interesting, but I can't take it seriously until the 15s
US equity indexes open broadly higher, with the sp' breaking a new cycle high, +16pts @ 2071. Despite the USD -0.2% in the DXY 94.90s, the metals are in cooling mode, Gold -$9. Oil is +2% in the $39s, ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'daily5
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
*I highlight the Nasdaq comp', as the 4900 threshold is one of the last key resistance levels. Any price action above the giant psy level of 5K would bode for new historic highs.
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So... new cycle highs, and we have almost everyone bullish.
Equity bears should be desperate for a latter day cooling, with a marginal net daily decline.
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notable strength, AAPL, daily
Set for a test of the 200dma in the $110s.
**it remains curious that we saw a 'rogue print' in the $110.50s last Mon' March 21st.
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back for the oil report at 10.30am
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10.30am . EIA report.. net weekly surplus, 2.3 million barrels.
Oil +2.6%.... in the $39s.
USD -0.5% in the DXY 94.60s... and that is clearly helping.
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +12pts, we're set to open at 2067. USD continues to cool, -0.3% in the DXY 94.80s. Metals are cooling from strong Tuesday gains, Gold -$7. Oil is +1.0% in the $38s, ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting ADP jobs data
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So, the sp'2056 high is going to be broken at the open. Next resistance is the upper daily bollinger in the 2070/75 zone.
The late Dec'2015 high of 2081 is arguably the last tolerable level for equity bears. Any action above there would bode for broad upside into the summer... to new historic highs in at least the headline indexes.
For now, that still seems very unlikely.
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There is the equally important issue of the monthly close. As things are, the majority of world equity markets are holding within a downward trend from last spring/summer. I'll detail that this weekend.
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Update from Mr C
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Hunter with the legendary Mr Black on financial fraud
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Overnight action
Japan: broadly weak, -1.3% @ 16878
China: increasing strength, +2.8% @ 3000.
Germany: currently +1.7% @ 10055, next resistance is 10400/500s.
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Have a good Wednesday
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8.15am ADP jobs: 200k.
sp' holding gains of around 11pts... 2066.
*Fed official Evans set to appear on clown finance TV.
On any fair basis, having climbed from the Feb'11th low of sp'1810 to 2056, the US market is due (at the very least) a retrace. First natural downside target is the 50dma, which in early April will be in the 1960s. As ever, the looming monthly close will be important for US and all other world equity markets.
sp'weekly1b
sp'monthly1b
Summary
Suffice to add, with two trading days left of the month, its going to be tough to attain another close under the 10MA, currently @ 2019.
Equity bears are going to need some dire oil inventory numbers (at least 6-7 million barrel surplus) to help swing the market lower.
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Market chatter from Schiff
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Looking ahead
Wed' will see ADP jobs, and the latest EIA oil report (10.30am).
*Fed official Evans is set to speak to the 'Forecasters club' at 1pm. There is indeed some irony in a fed official at such a club, as the Fed is notoriously one of the worse economic forecasters out there, arguably only surpassed by the IMF.
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*bonus chart - WTIC oil, weekly2
It is notable we currently have a blue candle. If the week closes blue, it will be a provisional sign that we've likely maxed out at $42.49. If that is indeed the case, the outlook for energy stocks - and the broader market, is bearish across April/May.
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Finally involved
After what seems like years, yours truly is finally involved again. It is of course extremely difficult to catch the top of any equity cycle... and today's close was a little disappointing. However, all things considered, it is unfathomable to imagine that the market won't see some significant cooling into early April... at least to the 50dma.
I hold overnight - short the sp'500.. and long the VIX.
US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +17pts at 2055 (intra low
2028). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 2.7%
respectively. Near term outlook increasingly threatens a turn, with
first key target of the 50dma.. which will be in the 1960s across early
April.
sp'daily5
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
sp'500: it is notable that the upper daily bollinger is at 2069. A break above the most recent 'marginally lower high' of 2081 looks out of range.
Nasdaq: the key 4900 threshold is a mere 1.0% away.. with the 200dma lurking. Sustained price action >4900 looks extremely difficult.
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