VIX continues to cool

With equity indexes seeing moderate chop across the day, the VIX remained broadly subdued (intra low 16.78), settling -3.4% @ 17.09. Near term outlook offers a test of the psy' level of sp'2K, which will likely equate to VIX 15s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

As equities continue to battle upward, the VIX remains in classic melt mode, already breaking into the 16s.

It would seem VIX 15s will be hit if sp'2K this Friday.

Broadly, VIX looks set to remain subdued for another two weeks. Certainly, VIX 30s look out of range until end month, if not mid April.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 1986. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 1990s, with 2K viable this Friday. Broad upside looks due into the FOMC of March 16th.... best case is the gap zone of 2038/43.


sp'60min

Summary

Closing hour action: micro chop... but leaning on the upside, breaking a new cycle high of 1986.
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The drama of CHK made for one interesting closing hour on clown finance TV, and ironically, CHK stock managed to hold very significant gains of around 23%.

As for the broader market... underlying momentum remains strongly bullish, and it will likely take at least two more weeks for the bull maniacs to exhaust themselves.

Considering a bullish MACD cross on the big weekly cycle is now imminent, there seems little reason to get involved on the short side until after the ECB and FOMC meetings are out of the way.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - rising support

Regardless of the exact close, the near term outlook offers further upside to the sp'1990s.. if not a test of the giant 2K threshold this Friday. Rising support will be around 1955 at today's close, and 1980 by the Friday close. For now.. equity bears look powerless ahead of the ECB and FOMC meetings.


sp'60min

Summary

Clearly there is threat of weakness ahead of the jobs data, but broadly, it'd now be surprising if the market didn't test 2K in the near term.


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notable strength.. CHK, daily

.. but it remains an obliterated stock.. having imploded from last summer.

.. and we now have news...........

Whether suicide, murder, or just a plain old accident, CHK is now even more complicated.

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You know its a big story if they drag the Cramer on...

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back at the close

2pm update - VIX continues to break new lows

With US equities battling for a marginally positive close, the VIX remains subdued, and continues to melt lower, currently -1.7% @ 17.40. Metals have managed to build gains, with Gold +$10 and Silver +0.8%. Oil is helping the broader market mood, currently u/c in the $34s.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.. on what is a mere consolidation day before renewed upside.. whether tomorrow or Friday.
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notable weakness...

TVIX, daily

Not surprisingly.. TVIX is breaking a new cycle low, the 6s look due. I suppose 5s are viable, if sp'2035/40s.. with VIX 15s at the time of the next FOMC.
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back at 3pm

1pm update - broadly strong

Despite some moderate weakness, US equities look broadly strong, headed for the sp' 2K threshold, with best bull case upside to the 2020/40 zone by the FOMC of March 16th. VIX remains subdued, having earlier hit 17.51. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$8, but still looks vulnerable into mid March.


sp'daily5b

GLD, daily2

Summary

Little to add.

Considering yesterday's giant gains, the market is arguably in consolidation mode... before the next push to the 2k threshold.
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notable weakness....

INFN, daily

It seems there is no real news.. its just cooling from the 50dma
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back at 2pm

12pm update - already turning positive

With oil turning positive, currently +0.6% in the $34s, US equity indexes have naturally followed, with the sp'500 breaking a new cycle high of 1980. The giant psy' level of 2K will be viable as early as tomorrow, but more probable on Friday. Despite current gains: Gold +$7, the precious metals look highly vulnerable into mid March.


sp'daily5

GLD, daily2

Summary

Little to add.

Anyone still trying to short ahead of the ECB (March 10th) and the FOMC (March 16th) is arguably way too early.

There still seems no hurry.
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VIX update from Mr T.    due

*seemingly taking a week off*

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time for lunch

11am update - another monstrous oil surplus

The latest EIA report showed a net weekly surplus of 10.4 million barrels. For the moment, the market doesn't particularly care, with oil lower by just -1.3% in the $33s. Most indexes look prone to turning positive into the afternoon, and continue clawing toward their respective 200dmas.


sp'daily5

Summary

The oil surplus really shouldn't come as a surprise, as supply is NOT being cut anywhere. Indeed, many recognise that there is potential for further supply coming online before end year.

Capitulation in WTIC oil is under $20.

If we are $38/40 by mid March, I'd even consider a mid term short, via USO.

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notable strength, tech, QCOM, daily

Clearly headed for the gap zone.. where the 200dma is near. QCOM is just one of dozens of individual stocks I follow, ALL highly supportive of the notion of the sp'2020/40 zone.. before the next rollover.
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Here in London city...

A rather fierce icy wind... with stormy showers.
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time to cook


11.05am... and the indexes turn green... already.

10am update - no downside power

It remains the case that the equity bears are largely powerless.. with most indexes opening just a little lower. Net daily gains are clearly viable, and regardless of today, a test of 2K looks inevitable, if not the 2020/40 zone by the FOMC of March 16th.


sp'daily5

GLD, daily

Summary

re: Gold. Still looks due to retrace to the red zone. There is a clear 10 trading day window... and even though I've a target of GLD 125 (aka Gold $1300)... there seems little reason to get involved right now.

Cyclically, we've already ticked lower... and its indicative of just how powerful the recent rally was.
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As for equities, its kinda embaressing that the equity bears can barely muster a moderate retrace lower, after what were super strong Tuesday gains.

VIX is +3%.. but only in the 18s... with 16/15s viable with sp'2K.

Instruments like TVIX/UXVY will surely melt lower across the next two weeks. There is likely no hurry on the next volatility-long trade.
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time for some sun... back soon

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are broadly flat, we're set to open at sp'1978. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 98.40s. Metals are a little weak, Gold -$2. Oil is -1.0%, ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min

Summary

*ADP jobs: 214k.... 'reasonable', something for the econ-bulls to be relieved about. Ironically, the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are now wondering if the Fed might raise rates at the next FOMC in two weeks!
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Market is set to consolidate yesterday's crazy gains.

It does seem though, the market will continue to battle upward. Its just a matter of whether 2K is hit this week... or next.

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Update from Mr C.



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Overnight action

Japan: solid gains, +4.1% @ 16746
China: +4.3% @ 2849
Germany: currently +0.4%@ 9754

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Have a good Wednesday

The laughable bullish hysteria

With Fed official Dudley touting no threat of any rate hikes in the near term, the market opened higher, and built gains across the day. The mainstream are naturally getting increasingly confident about the rest of 2016. After all, with the sp'500 set to move above the 2K threshold, everything is fine again, right?


sp'monthly1b

sp'weekly8f

Summary

Again, it is highly notable that the February close was weak, making for the third consecutive net monthly decline.

We have the monthly 10MA at 2011, and that will be prime resistance across March.

Equity bears must see a March close under the 10MA.. if not preferably under the Feb' close of 1932.

If we're trading in the 2020/40 zone around mid March, it will be tough to see a March close <1900.
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re: weekly8f. The current pattern/setup is clearly similar to summer 2008.

Every cycle is unique, and there are many differences of course from summer 2008, but still... in theory, the next down wave should be the most powerful..and take us to at least the low 1600s...testing the double top of 2000/2007. The same can be said for a number of other world markets, notably the German DAX.
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Looking ahead

Wed' will see ADP jobs, the latest EIA report, and the Fed beige book (2pm).

*Fed official Williams is on the loose in early morning.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed powerfully higher, sp +46pts @ 1978. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.1% and 2.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside to the 1980/90s, with 2K more viable next week. A peak around mid March looks on track, before a critical rollover.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Suffice to add, most indexes look set for a test of their respective 200dmas by mid March.

From there, things should get real interesting.

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a little more later...