With equities seeing some rather typical OPEX chop, the VIX remained subdued, and melted a little lower, settling -2.4% @ 12.43 (intra high 13.09). Near term outlook offers the sp'2140s by end month, and that should equate to VIX remaining within the 15/11 zone.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*the VIX saw a net weekly decline of -3.3%.
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Little to add.
VIX remains broadly subdued, and looks set to remain low into early June. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until the next FOMC of June 17th.
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US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 2122. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers upside into the 2140s by end month, with the 2170s just about viable by the next FOMC of June 17th.
sp'60min
Summary
... and another week comes to a close.
I do understand why some have been attempting minor index shorts from the sp'2120s, but to me.. it seems overly risky.. not least as the indexes are set to close with net weekly gains.
It'd seem the market will continue higher into early/mid June, at which point we'll be likely trading somewhere in the 2140/70 zone.
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As for yours truly, the week started fine... but hasn't ended so great as Gold just keeps on clawing higher. Perhaps its just a one week 'crazy bounce'.. of which we've seen dozens since the 2011 bubble peak. No doubt, the weakening USD is a primary upward pressure for the metals. Sooner or later.. King dollar will turn back upward.
Have a good weekend.
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*the usual bits and pieces to wrap up the week... across the evening
US equities are set to close with minor chop into the weekly close. Most indexes (Transports is the exception) are set for moderate net weekly gains. VIX remains subdued, and is due to settle in the 12s.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Little to add.. on what is a quiet end to the week.
A weekly close in the sp'2120s seems very probable, and it won't take much of a short-stop cascade to break new historic highs in the closing hour.
notable strength: NFLX +5.1% @ $616, and I'm already starting to see more chatter of 900/1000.
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Whilst equities continue in their minor OPEX chop... the VIX is naturally subdued, stuck in the mid 12s. It has to be asked, how high might the VIX reach this summer/autumn? Are the mid 20s all the equity bears are going to see - as has been the case since mid 2012, when the sp'500 was a mere 1266?
VIX, monthly
VIX'weekly
Summary
*with little to add on the indexes... I thought a look at a few VIX charts might interest some.
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Barring a little equity sell down <sp'2115 this afternoon, the VIX is set for a moderate net weekly decline.
It is highly notable that at the current rate, the VIX will see a MACD bullish cross on the weekly cycle around mid June.
For now, there seems little reason to be long VIX... at least until FOMC week of June'15th.
My best guess...
VIX to see at least the low 20s sometime in mid/late June - regardless of the FOMC decision. There seems 'reasonable' opportunity for a sig' retrace from the sp'2140/70 zone... at least to 2k... and if that is the case... VIX 30s would be hit.. if very... very briefly.
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US equities remain in very minor chop mode.. ahead of the weekend, sp -1pt @ 2120. Metals are holding slight gains, Gold +$2. Oil remains well above the early morning low, -0.5%. VIX remains subdued, -1% in the 12s.
sp'60min
TLT, daily
Summary
Little to add...
Notable strength in long dated bonds... TLT +2.0%.. with a break of trend. In many ways.. the move is bonds is the somewhat overlooked issue today.
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weakness: FB -1.2%... with some sig' vol' right now.
US equities continue to see rather natural opex chop, a daily close in the sp'2120s still looks probable... with a moderate net weekly gain for most indexes. VIX is not reflecting any concern, set to close in the 12s. Metals are battling for break even, whilst Oil continues to recover, -0.5%
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*action in the metals is still offering upside.. so long as the USD doesn't manage to hold the 93s. A move into the 94/95s into end May would cause some real problems for those in metal/oil land.
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Not much to add, on what is a pretty standard OPEX.
The underlying upward pressure in equities should be clear to almost everyone, and the current weekly candles are offering rather clear spike floors from the Tue' low of 2085.
The 2140s look due... and 2170s will be just about viable by the FOMC of June 17th.
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notable strength: NFLX+4.6%.. and yes the PE is insane... 275/300... or perhaps you'd rather a neg' yield EU bond?
Whilst equities see continued minor chop - with a likely close in the sp'2120/25 zone, the USD has turned lower, -0.2% @ DXY 93.20s. As a result, the initial downward pressure in the metals and oil has faded, Gold +$1, with Oil -0.8%.
sp'60min
GLD
Summary
*opening reversal (hollow red) candle in GLD, reflecting the renewed USD weakness.
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Well, a day of chop would be pretty natural... considering its OPEX.
For a net weekly gain, bulls need sp >2116.. which happened to this mornings opening minor washout low.
US equities open with some minor mixed chop. Far more important though... Bonds continue to climb, TLT +1.0%. USD is also making a serious attempt to break the short term down trend, +0.5% in the DXY 93.90s. Oil is under major pressure, -2.2%. Metals are a little weak, Gold -$3.
TLT, daily
UUP, daily
USO, daily
Summary
*the moves in currency and bond land are arguably pretty important, and will likely shape the next few weeks.
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So.. bonds are climbing... the USD is battling for the DXY 94s... which is putting downward pressure on Oil, and that is pushing the energy stocks lower...
Oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -3.5%
Deere (DE) -2.4%.. downgraded by the JPM, from $90 to $84.
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I see a few people looking to short the sp'500 in the 2120s, but really, it seems overly risky, as the 2140s look due before end month.. nevermind the threat of 2170s in June.
VIX continues to reflect a market that has zero concern of anything, stuck in the 12s.. with an early low of 12.41.
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10.02am. consumer sentiment.. major miss... 88s vs previous 95s .... certainly in sync with the recent disappointing retail sales data.
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10.20am.. USD turns negative... as the neg' econ data upset some.
Metals and Oil are naturally recovering as the pressure is taken off.
Strength: NFLX +3.9%.. as the momo chasers pile in
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Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2125. New historic highs are due this morning in the sp'500 and Dow, with the NYSE/Nasdaq comp' set to follow. Metals are moderately lower, Gold -$6. Oil continues to cool, -0.4%, as the USD makes another attempt to rally, +0.3% @ DXY 93.70s.
sp'60min
sp'weekly
Summary
After all the chatter across the last few weeks... the headline sp/dow indexes are set to break new historic highs.
A moderate net weekly gain looks due for all indexes.... except the Transports.
The sp'2135/45 zone is easily within range by end month, and frankly, there is little reason why the market won't keep clawing higher into at least the next FOMC of mid June.
As a fair few recognise, a tag of the upper bollinger on the giant monthly cycle - currently in the sp'2170s, would make for a far better re-short level.
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notable early movers...
NFLX +2.4%.. now in the $600s.... seemingly headed for the proverbial moon.
DE -1.8% @ $90.50, but it did achieve a bullish monthly close above the key $90 threshold in April.
LOCO -13%.. as the momo chasers worry about future growth
GMCR -5%.. post earnings depression
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Financial chatter from Mr H.. with guest 'appleinvestor'..
I don't follow the 'appleinvestor' guest, but I certainly agree with much of what he has to say on the metals. His downside targets are very close to mine.
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*awaiting a trio of econ-data this morning, today is OPEX of course, so expect increasing chop into the weekend.
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Whilst equities saw a day of rather significant gains, there was continued weakness in the USD, which settled -0.2% @ DXY 93.43 (intra low 93.15). The only issue in the near term is whether there is a brief bounce before another wave lower to the DXY 90/89s.
USD, weekly
USD, monthly3, outlook
Summary
It has been a tiresome day.. and I'll forgo any chatter on the above USD charts.
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Brief reminder on the bigger weekly sp'500 cycle..
The blue candle has now turned to an outright bullish green candle... and the Tuesday low of sp'2085 is now almost 2% lower.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see a trio of data, Empire state, indust' produ', and consumer sent.
*It will be OPEX, so expect increasing chop into the Friday close.
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US equities closed with somewhat significant gains, sp +22pts @ 2121.
The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 1.0% respectively.
Near term outlook is for new historic highs in some of the indexes, but
certainly not the Trans/R2K which remain seriously lagging.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
*the weakness in the two leaders remains an issue, but still... at least some of the indexes look set to break new territory in the days ahead.
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Sp'500, Dow, NYSE/Nasdaq comp' are set to break new historic highs in the near term.
The bigger weekly/monthly cycles will both be offering the sp'2170s in mid June... which would make for a rather important tag of the upper bollinger band.
In any case.. for now.. this is still no market for those wishing to be broadly short equities.
