sp'60min
Summary
I'm tired... suffice to say... price structure is offering a baby bear flag.... bearish for Wednesday... should have a fair chance of significant downside.
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I will post a daily wrap at 8pm EST.
Tuesday, 4 November 2014
Closing Brief
US equities saw a day of moderate weakness ahead of the US elections, sp -5pts @ 2012. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for the sp'1980/70s, along with VIX 17/18s.
sp'60min
Summary
I'm tired... suffice to say... price structure is offering a baby bear flag.... bearish for Wednesday... should have a fair chance of significant downside.
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I will post a daily wrap at 8pm EST.
sp'60min
Summary
I'm tired... suffice to say... price structure is offering a baby bear flag.... bearish for Wednesday... should have a fair chance of significant downside.
-
I will post a daily wrap at 8pm EST.
3pm update - baby bear flag
US remain moderately weak, sp -0.4% @ 2009. Price structure is a rather clear baby bear flag, and it is offering the low sp'1970s tomorrow, along with VIX 17/18s. Oil remains weak, -1.6%.
sp'60min
Summary
So... we have a clear small bear flag on the 15/60min cycles... and a more significant drop should (in theory) occur across tomorrow.
The low 1970s look a viable target... which for me, would be a likely exit from my existing short-index block.
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Notable weakness: GDX -3.1%
sp'60min
Summary
So... we have a clear small bear flag on the 15/60min cycles... and a more significant drop should (in theory) occur across tomorrow.
The low 1970s look a viable target... which for me, would be a likely exit from my existing short-index block.
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Notable weakness: GDX -3.1%
2pm update - continued chop
US equities remain choppy, with the Dow even turning fractionally positive. Oil remains notably weak, -1.7%. Equities look set to lose the sp'2000 threshold within a day or two.. primary downside target are the low sp'1970s.. with VIX 17/18.
sp'daily5
Summary
Tiresome day...
Awaiting at least one day of significant downside between tomorrow and Friday.
A test of the 50dma... currently @ 1968.. and rising... looks a viable target.
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yours.... struggling
sp'daily5
Summary
Tiresome day...
Awaiting at least one day of significant downside between tomorrow and Friday.
A test of the 50dma... currently @ 1968.. and rising... looks a viable target.
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yours.... struggling
1pm update - back to chop
US equities are back to chop, with the sp' -0.3% @ 2011. Price action will likely remain choppy into the close ahead of the US elections. VIX is holding minor gains of 2% in the low 15s. Oil remains very weak, -2.1%.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add right now.
Notable weakness in the miners... GDX -2.6%... losing most of the Monday gains.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add right now.
Notable weakness in the miners... GDX -2.6%... losing most of the Monday gains.
12pm update - moderate declines
US equities are lower, with the sp'500 so far managing to hit 2001, with VIX 15.93. A post election decline to the sp'1970s - with VIX 17/18s looks viable by end week. Oil remains in free fall, -2.8% in the $76s.
sp'60min
Summary
Interesting morning, especially for the energy sector, but overall.... its still small moves. The fact the Trans broke a new historic high this morning remains a major problem for those in bear land.
The 1970s do look a reasonable target, but what then?
No clarity unless <1900.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for tea.
sp'60min
Summary
Interesting morning, especially for the energy sector, but overall.... its still small moves. The fact the Trans broke a new historic high this morning remains a major problem for those in bear land.
The 1970s do look a reasonable target, but what then?
No clarity unless <1900.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for tea.
11am update - provisional break of trend
US equities are increasingly shaky, with the sp' moderately lower, -0.5% @ 2006. It remains notable that the Transports broke a new historic high.. greatly helped by the airlines... themselves helped by Oil.... -2.1%. VIX is +5% in the mid 15s.
sp'60min
Summary
So.. we have a somewhat interesting break. First downside target by Friday are the sp'1970s.. but that merely gets us back to where we were last Thursday morning... urghh.
I'll no doubt say it many times across the next week or so.. but until we're back under sp'1900.. equity bears have nothing to tout... not least whilst the Transports is still breaking new highs.
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Notable weakness, Oil/gas drillers...
SDRL, weekly
I will probably cover the drillers in my 'fair value' page later after the close.
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time to cook
11.12am.. sp'500 approaching first key support at the giant 2000 threshold.. where is also gap support.
VIX +7%.. making a play for the 16s.
sp'60min
Summary
So.. we have a somewhat interesting break. First downside target by Friday are the sp'1970s.. but that merely gets us back to where we were last Thursday morning... urghh.
I'll no doubt say it many times across the next week or so.. but until we're back under sp'1900.. equity bears have nothing to tout... not least whilst the Transports is still breaking new highs.
--
Notable weakness, Oil/gas drillers...
SDRL, weekly
I will probably cover the drillers in my 'fair value' page later after the close.
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time to cook
11.12am.. sp'500 approaching first key support at the giant 2000 threshold.. where is also gap support.
VIX +7%.. making a play for the 16s.
10am update - another mixed open
US equities open mixed. Most notable, a new historic high in the Transports of 8826. There is an arguable minor break of trend on the sp'500. VIX continues to claw higher, +2% in the 15s, first upside target remains the 18/20 zone.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*It is highly dubious if we have a short term high for the sp'500... not least since the Trans just broke a new historic high (strong gains in the airlines).
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Long day ahead....I certainly don't expect a break <sp'2000 until tomorrow at the earliest. My concern is that we'll actually swing higher to the 2040/50 zone as many are currently touting.
Notable weakness, Oil -2.0%
.. which is destroying the oil/gas drillers, RIG -4.7%, SDRL -6.3%.
10.35am.. .sp-10pts @ 2007.... marginally interesting... but really... until elections out of the way... sub 2000 looks... unlikely.
VIX +4%.... in scheme of things... minor.
At current rate.. first real chance of a sig' push higher.... Friday.
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sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*It is highly dubious if we have a short term high for the sp'500... not least since the Trans just broke a new historic high (strong gains in the airlines).
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Long day ahead....I certainly don't expect a break <sp'2000 until tomorrow at the earliest. My concern is that we'll actually swing higher to the 2040/50 zone as many are currently touting.
Notable weakness, Oil -2.0%
.. which is destroying the oil/gas drillers, RIG -4.7%, SDRL -6.3%.
10.35am.. .sp-10pts @ 2007.... marginally interesting... but really... until elections out of the way... sub 2000 looks... unlikely.
VIX +4%.... in scheme of things... minor.
At current rate.. first real chance of a sig' push higher.... Friday.
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Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2011. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$2. Oil is sharply lower, -1.8%. Price action is likely to remain relatively subdued until after the Tuesday US elections.
sp'daily3
Summary
The fall in Oil is pretty dramatic, at some point Mr Market is going to have to 'catch down' to some extent.
Other than that... there really isn't much else to note. It is surely just a case of waiting until tomorrow for the first real opportunity of downside. Even then, its going to be damn difficult to hit the first soft target of the sp'1970s by late Friday.
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Notable weakness, Oil/gas drillers, RIG -1.6%, SDRL -4.2%
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9.36am.. Trans.. +0.5%, new historic high.... ... with VIX in the 15s... hmm
sp'daily3
Summary
The fall in Oil is pretty dramatic, at some point Mr Market is going to have to 'catch down' to some extent.
Other than that... there really isn't much else to note. It is surely just a case of waiting until tomorrow for the first real opportunity of downside. Even then, its going to be damn difficult to hit the first soft target of the sp'1970s by late Friday.
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Notable weakness, Oil/gas drillers, RIG -1.6%, SDRL -4.2%
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9.36am.. Trans.. +0.5%, new historic high.... ... with VIX in the 15s... hmm
Daily Wrap
A quiet start to a new month, sp -0.2pts @ 2017 (new historic intra high 2024). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.3% respectively. A moderate down wave looks likely after the Tuesday US elections. As things are, even the 1970s look tough to reach.
sp'daily3 - fib levels
VIX'daily3
Summary
*the above fib chart assumes sp'2024 as a cycle top, but we could easily keep on clawing higher tomorrow/Wednesday.
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So, another new high for the sp'500. Just reflect that we've ramped from 1820 to 2024 - a gain of 11.2%, across 14 trading days.
The VIX managed to hold minor gains across the day, but this is not surprising considering the looming US elections.
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Oil - continuing to slide
The October close was exceptionally bearish, and it is no surprise to see continued downside, lower by a very significant -2.4%, into the $78s
WTIC monthly'2, rainbow
The $65/60 target zone looks very probable early next year. From there, long Oil would seem a very reasonable trade, at least back to the 90/100 zone. On any basis, lower energy prices are going to really help the US, and broader world economy. Of course, the one notable exception will be... energy stocks.
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Closing update from Riley (in front of a pool... but pretending he is still on the floor, I really wish he'd forgo the green screen).
Frankly, if a retrace does only make it to the 1990s... thats a sick joke.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday will see Intl trade and Factory orders data.
There are mid-term US elections, although of course, no results until overnight Tue/Wed.
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Pork Bellies... I knew it!
One of the first sites I check at the start of each day is Finviz. A look at Finviz - see HERE, this evening, they've added VIX to the primary table. That is good to see, but none other than Pork Bellies is the one to have been dropped. I.... knew.......it.
*Ohh yeah, notice Oil at $102, that is 30% higher - screenie data on left side is from March'9th 2014.
If you saw the lunch time VIX update from Mr T, he mentioned something about VIX futures/options with planned extended trading hours. It seems the CBOE are still in the process of extending trading hours.
--
All fans of Trading places should start Tuesday with a bacon sandwich.
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Goodnight from London
sp'daily3 - fib levels
VIX'daily3
Summary
*the above fib chart assumes sp'2024 as a cycle top, but we could easily keep on clawing higher tomorrow/Wednesday.
--
So, another new high for the sp'500. Just reflect that we've ramped from 1820 to 2024 - a gain of 11.2%, across 14 trading days.
The VIX managed to hold minor gains across the day, but this is not surprising considering the looming US elections.
-
Oil - continuing to slide
The October close was exceptionally bearish, and it is no surprise to see continued downside, lower by a very significant -2.4%, into the $78s
WTIC monthly'2, rainbow
The $65/60 target zone looks very probable early next year. From there, long Oil would seem a very reasonable trade, at least back to the 90/100 zone. On any basis, lower energy prices are going to really help the US, and broader world economy. Of course, the one notable exception will be... energy stocks.
--
Closing update from Riley (in front of a pool... but pretending he is still on the floor, I really wish he'd forgo the green screen).
Frankly, if a retrace does only make it to the 1990s... thats a sick joke.
--
Looking ahead
Tuesday will see Intl trade and Factory orders data.
There are mid-term US elections, although of course, no results until overnight Tue/Wed.
--
Pork Bellies... I knew it!
One of the first sites I check at the start of each day is Finviz. A look at Finviz - see HERE, this evening, they've added VIX to the primary table. That is good to see, but none other than Pork Bellies is the one to have been dropped. I.... knew.......it.
 |
| Bye Bellies... hello VIX |
*Ohh yeah, notice Oil at $102, that is 30% higher - screenie data on left side is from March'9th 2014.
If you saw the lunch time VIX update from Mr T, he mentioned something about VIX futures/options with planned extended trading hours. It seems the CBOE are still in the process of extending trading hours.
--
All fans of Trading places should start Tuesday with a bacon sandwich.
-
Goodnight from London
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