Friday, 28 March 2014

Seeking a break under 1830

The weekly 10MA of sp'1833 remains a key level for the bull maniacs to hold. If it is broken, whether tomorrow, or next Monday, such a break will open up a swift ride lower to 1800/1790. Price action in recent days remains weak, and equity bears have reasonable opportunity at this time.



*the above scenario remains my most bearish outlook. I am still open to the sp'1900s, but if we break <1830.. that will be difficult this spring. Certainly, if we hit the lower weekly bollinger band (1768, and rising), I'd consider 1883 a key intermediate'3 top.

So, just one day left of the trading week, and we are holding a blue candle at sp'1849.

My best hope right now is for a break of 1830, and that will open the door to much lower levels. Whether we get stuck around 1800/1790...or even a little lower...we'll just have to wait and see. The MACD (green bar histogram) remains in negative territory, and the market is very vulnerable to downside into this weekend, and across next week.

Looking ahead

In terms of econ-data, we have personal income/outlays, with consumer sentiment due at 9.55am. So..nothing major is due, and that will give the market an opportunity to trade on underlying price pressure..which right now, is 'weak'.

*There is no sig' QE-pomo until at least next Tuesday....bulls...beware!

Positioned for a major one day fall

I am heavy short, primarily via SDS, and also having again picked up a SPY option put block this afternoon. The following remains an attractive outlook...

sp'60min1b - double H/S

Tomorrow could be pretty exciting for the bears. There is no sig' QE for the bears to be concerned with, and as ever, one key issue will be....'who wants to hold long into the weekend?'.

If the bears can break <1830, by late morning, the afternoon could

Goodnight from London