VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
We continue to see sporadic little intraday spikes.. but the highs remain very low... in the low teens.
The big 20 threshold looks unlikely to be challenged until June.
--
more later... on the indexes
Wednesday, 29 April 2015
VIX holds moderate gains
With equities seeing some weakness into the early afternoon, the VIX clawed higher (intra high 14.34), but settling +7.9% @ 13.39. Near term outlook is for continued broad equity upside.. which should keep the VIX pinned within the 14/11 zone into mid May.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
We continue to see sporadic little intraday spikes.. but the highs remain very low... in the low teens.
The big 20 threshold looks unlikely to be challenged until June.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
We continue to see sporadic little intraday spikes.. but the highs remain very low... in the low teens.
The big 20 threshold looks unlikely to be challenged until June.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed weak, sp -7pts @ 2106 (intra low 2097). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by a significant -1.2% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers a little further weakness, whilst the broader trend remains strongly bullish... with the sp'2170/80s viable by mid June.
sp'60min
Summary
Suffice to say.. an interesting and rather good day for yours truly.
--
Despite the net daily index declines, it remains the case that the equity bears just can't muster any significant.. or sustained downside.
VIX continues to reflect a market with next to zero concern about anything, least of all a GREXIT.
--
more later.. on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
Suffice to say.. an interesting and rather good day for yours truly.
--
Despite the net daily index declines, it remains the case that the equity bears just can't muster any significant.. or sustained downside.
VIX continues to reflect a market with next to zero concern about anything, least of all a GREXIT.
--
more later.. on the VIX
3pm update - clawing into the close
US equity indexes are battling for a positive net daily gain.. as market consensus is that the Fed won't raise rates until at least September. USD is seeing a sig' late afternoon bounce.. as the Euro cools. Metals are seeing increasing weakness, Gold -$5. Oil is similarly cooling, but still +2.5%
sp'60min
Summary
Interesting day.
It would seem the USD will claw upward into the close...
*I will consider going re-long Oil tomorrow... and/or long-Euro.. via FXE. Euro looks set for 1.17/1.20 by mid June.
-
Notable hyper-strength in Salesforce (CRM)... as Bloomberg post a story on a 'possible acquirer'...
Like the recent instances of TCK and DISCA (amongst others)... I would not be surprised to see CRM refute the story.. for the stock to collapse AH or early tomorrow.
Risky situation.... for those still long.. and holding overnight.
-
notable weakness: TWTR -8.2%.... utterly dire near term outlook.. at least to the 36/35s... if not the Dec' low of $34s.
-
3.18pm.. Equity chop... but clearly.. no sig' downside right now.. despite the USD holding well above the earlier lows.
Euro.. via FXE, 60min
I will have eyes on FXE tomorrow morning... gap zone looks an easy target.. to consider going long. Upside target is 1.17/1.20
sp'60min
Summary
Interesting day.
It would seem the USD will claw upward into the close...
*I will consider going re-long Oil tomorrow... and/or long-Euro.. via FXE. Euro looks set for 1.17/1.20 by mid June.
-
Notable hyper-strength in Salesforce (CRM)... as Bloomberg post a story on a 'possible acquirer'...
Like the recent instances of TCK and DISCA (amongst others)... I would not be surprised to see CRM refute the story.. for the stock to collapse AH or early tomorrow.
Risky situation.... for those still long.. and holding overnight.
-
notable weakness: TWTR -8.2%.... utterly dire near term outlook.. at least to the 36/35s... if not the Dec' low of $34s.
-
3.18pm.. Equity chop... but clearly.. no sig' downside right now.. despite the USD holding well above the earlier lows.
Euro.. via FXE, 60min
I will have eyes on FXE tomorrow morning... gap zone looks an easy target.. to consider going long. Upside target is 1.17/1.20
2pm update - time for some fedspeak
The latest FOMC announcement is due, although no policy change/rate hike is now likely until September. Equities are already seeing something of a recovery, with a net daily gain viable for all indexes. Oil is starting to cool from the earlier high, as the USD is trying to bounce.
sp'60min
USO, 60min
Summary
... standing by....
-
notable weakness: BABA -3.5% in the low $82s... earnings are next week. Hmmm
-
2.02pm.. Initial reaction..
USD jumping up.... putting pressure on everything.. esp' metals/Oil
2.06pm.. spike floors on the smaller equity cycles... a net daily gain looks probable.
Meanwhile... TWTR still falling -7.4%... the $38s are imminent. Next key support is 36/35... which will likely hold.
2.14pm...Every tick higher in the USD.... equities, oil, metals.... tick lower.... naturally.
2.28pm USD having bounce from -1.4% to -0.8%.... interesting move... it'd seem the USD will probably start Thursday moderate higher... will be tempting short... or long Euro... via FXE.
..TWTR just keeps on falling -8.0% in the upper $38s.... no one wants to buy until 36/35.
-
2.45pm... oh lookie... Salesforce (CRM).. suspended.. after hyper-ramping for no known reason..
Like TWTR yesterday.. does someone know something? (do they have earnings today?)
.. no.. its not earnings.
sp'60min
USO, 60min
Summary
... standing by....
-
notable weakness: BABA -3.5% in the low $82s... earnings are next week. Hmmm
-
2.02pm.. Initial reaction..
USD jumping up.... putting pressure on everything.. esp' metals/Oil
2.06pm.. spike floors on the smaller equity cycles... a net daily gain looks probable.
Meanwhile... TWTR still falling -7.4%... the $38s are imminent. Next key support is 36/35... which will likely hold.
2.14pm...Every tick higher in the USD.... equities, oil, metals.... tick lower.... naturally.
2.28pm USD having bounce from -1.4% to -0.8%.... interesting move... it'd seem the USD will probably start Thursday moderate higher... will be tempting short... or long Euro... via FXE.
..TWTR just keeps on falling -8.0% in the upper $38s.... no one wants to buy until 36/35.
-
2.45pm... oh lookie... Salesforce (CRM).. suspended.. after hyper-ramping for no known reason..
Like TWTR yesterday.. does someone know something? (do they have earnings today?)
.. no.. its not earnings.
1pm update - moderate weakness
US equities remain weak with the sp' -13pts @ 2101, and it remains a case of no significant downside. USD remains broadly weak, -1.2%... but susceptible to latter day (post FOMC) strength. Metals remain a touch weak, Gold -$2. Oil continues to build gains, +3.8%.
sp'60min
USO'60min
Summary
Oil is notably strong, with the latest EIA report pleasing traders that perhaps draw downs are coming in May/June.
*Having exited USO-long at $20.08.. I'm content to just watch for the rest of today.
--
FOMC is due at 2pm.... I'd expect some moderate market swings.. but broadly.. we look set to recover higher into the close.
--
notable weakness: TWTR -5.5% in the $39s
-
time for lunch :)
sp'60min
USO'60min
Summary
Oil is notably strong, with the latest EIA report pleasing traders that perhaps draw downs are coming in May/June.
*Having exited USO-long at $20.08.. I'm content to just watch for the rest of today.
--
FOMC is due at 2pm.... I'd expect some moderate market swings.. but broadly.. we look set to recover higher into the close.
--
notable weakness: TWTR -5.5% in the $39s
-
time for lunch :)
12pm update - holding pattern
US equities have naturally slipped into a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC announcement (due 2pm). Most indexes look set to resume higher after the latest Fedspeak. USD remains broadly weak, -1.2% in the DXY 94.80s. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$3. Oil is building sig' gains of 3.0%.
sp'60min
USO, 60min
Summary
*I exited USO-long an hour ago... very content with the exit. Will consider going long on any sig' pull back.
--
Little to add.
Market looks set to trundle sideways into 2pm.
Regardless of any initial down wave... I'd still expect market to claw somewhat higher into the close.
-
notable weakness: -4.9% @ $40.20.... the CEOs appearence on clown finance TV has not exactly inspired the momo chasers to hit the buy button.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time to cook
sp'60min
USO, 60min
Summary
*I exited USO-long an hour ago... very content with the exit. Will consider going long on any sig' pull back.
--
Little to add.
Market looks set to trundle sideways into 2pm.
Regardless of any initial down wave... I'd still expect market to claw somewhat higher into the close.
-
notable weakness: -4.9% @ $40.20.... the CEOs appearence on clown finance TV has not exactly inspired the momo chasers to hit the buy button.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time to cook
11am update - USD continues to unravel
Whilst equities continue to see moderate weakness (but liable to turn positive this afternoon), there is notable sig' weakness in the USD, -1.0% in the DXY 95.10s (intra low 94.88). First target zone of 93/92s is clearly probable by mid May.
UUP, weekly
USO, 60min
Summary
*I will continue to use UUP as a way to highlight USD, since stockcharts don't offer intraday charts on the DXY.
--
So.... USD weakness continues... 93/92s now look easy to hit. Increasingly... the 90/89 secondary target looks viable in June.
If the USD can floor in June/July..... it would help make for a natural equity.. and Oil cycle top.
--
*I remain long Oil via USO... I am trying to give it some time to build gains before my next exit.
In any case... at least I'm not long TWTR, -4.5% in the low $40s.
-
11.07am.. EXITED long-USO... from 20.08.... moderate gain... it'll do.. will look to re-long.. on any pull back.
UUP, weekly
USO, 60min
Summary
*I will continue to use UUP as a way to highlight USD, since stockcharts don't offer intraday charts on the DXY.
--
So.... USD weakness continues... 93/92s now look easy to hit. Increasingly... the 90/89 secondary target looks viable in June.
If the USD can floor in June/July..... it would help make for a natural equity.. and Oil cycle top.
--
*I remain long Oil via USO... I am trying to give it some time to build gains before my next exit.
In any case... at least I'm not long TWTR, -4.5% in the low $40s.
-
11.07am.. EXITED long-USO... from 20.08.... moderate gain... it'll do.. will look to re-long.. on any pull back.
10am update - rinse... repeat
Again its a case of a moderately weak open, with no real downside power, a latter day recovery looks due. The market is set to enter a holding pattern until the FOMC announcement of 2pm. Metals are a little weak, Gold -$4. Oil is +0.3% ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'daily5
Summary
*awaiting EIA report (due 10.30am)
--
A very disappointing open for those in bear land. Lousy GDP data... pre-market weakness of sp-13pts.... only to open -6pts.. and already in danger of turning positive!
Whether you want to blame the central banks, stock buy backs, or just plain crazy 'momo chasers',... this is no market for the bears.
-
notable weakness.... the hysteria stock that is TWTR...
An opening reversal candle.... but TWTR has a long day ahead... with the CEO to appear on clown finance TV in the 11am hour.
Market still seems more rattled by the early release of earnings, than the usual lousy earnings/outlook.
A daily close <$40 would be a real problem, and open up a likely move to the 36/35s. before flooring.
For now... I'm not getting involved in the TWTR nonsense.... but it remains a great deal of free entertainment.
-
stay tuned!
10.24am.... EIA report due.... with sp -11pts.
It remains notable that we're still well above yesterdays' low of sp'2094.
*TWTR unable to hold the $40 psy' level... it would seem 36/35 is due in early May.
--
USD dropping like a rock... -1.1% the DXY 94s have now been hit...
10.30am.. EIA report.... 1.9 million barrel surplus... somewhat less than expected...
Oil is on the rise, +1.1%... still set for the $60 threshold.
*I remain long USO...seeking a move into the $20s
-
10.35am.... NEWS update.... the Ben Bernanke is now a senion advisor at PIMCO.
... the irony.
--
USD -1.2%.... its helping prop up equities/commodities...
Oil climbing... +2.1%
sp'daily5
Summary
*awaiting EIA report (due 10.30am)
--
A very disappointing open for those in bear land. Lousy GDP data... pre-market weakness of sp-13pts.... only to open -6pts.. and already in danger of turning positive!
Whether you want to blame the central banks, stock buy backs, or just plain crazy 'momo chasers',... this is no market for the bears.
-
notable weakness.... the hysteria stock that is TWTR...
An opening reversal candle.... but TWTR has a long day ahead... with the CEO to appear on clown finance TV in the 11am hour.
Market still seems more rattled by the early release of earnings, than the usual lousy earnings/outlook.
A daily close <$40 would be a real problem, and open up a likely move to the 36/35s. before flooring.
For now... I'm not getting involved in the TWTR nonsense.... but it remains a great deal of free entertainment.
-
stay tuned!
10.24am.... EIA report due.... with sp -11pts.
It remains notable that we're still well above yesterdays' low of sp'2094.
*TWTR unable to hold the $40 psy' level... it would seem 36/35 is due in early May.
--
USD dropping like a rock... -1.1% the DXY 94s have now been hit...
10.30am.. EIA report.... 1.9 million barrel surplus... somewhat less than expected...
Oil is on the rise, +1.1%... still set for the $60 threshold.
*I remain long USO...seeking a move into the $20s
-
10.35am.... NEWS update.... the Ben Bernanke is now a senion advisor at PIMCO.
... the irony.
--
USD -1.2%.... its helping prop up equities/commodities...
Oil climbing... +2.1%
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are a little lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 2109. Metals are weak, Gold -$3, with Silver -0.4%. Oil is -0.2%, ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'daily5
Summary
*awaiting Q1 GDP data
--
We have an interesting day ahead.... not least with the Oil report at 10.30am.. and the FOMC at 2pm.
notable weakness: TWTR -2.6% in the low $41s. A daily close <$40 would be a real problem, and open up 'some weeks' in the mid/low $30s.
Casinos, WYNN -10%... lousy earnings.... MGM and LVS are following, -4%
Lumber liquidators -16% in the $27s. Did they not fix the toxic floors yet?
-
strength: GPRO +12% in the $51s... post earnings.. although it is notable that the stock was initially -5%.
--
Have a good day!
8.31am GDP: 0.2%..... vs 1.0% expected....
Lousy number... no question about it.
USD remains weak, -0.4% in the 95s. Already close to first target zone.
Equity indexes cooling a touch on the news.. sp -7pts.. 2107.
... now its a case of what the FOMC statement is.... I'm guessing the market will manage to still broadly climb.
8.42am.. USD still rapidly cooling, -0.6% in the DXY 95.40s. We're now a ful 5% lower from 7 weeks ago.
At this rate.. we'll be back to the breakout zone of 90/89 by mid June. If that is the case, I'll be going long UUP for a hyper-wave ramp to the 120s.
We've not forgotten about Greece, or the other EU PIIGS have we?
9.04am.. watching clown finance TV.... Cramer looking a bit bashed up after his beloved TWTR is smacked lower by 20%...
Re: TWTR early release of results '... this was trolling.... it was a glitch in the system... its not Twitters fault'
-- comedy gold.
-
9.11am.. Indexes are snapping lower , sp -13pts... back to 2101. If yesterdays low of 2094 is taken out... then things will get interesting.
In any case... the market is awaiting the FOMC.. although that won't see any actual changes... will it ?
9.16am.. TWTR -3.7% in the low $40s.... is it time that Cramer is put on suicide watch yet? Ironically, he was even making a TWTR joke just now.. and then kinda back tracked with a 'too early?'
The underlying issue.. as with all things... one of 'fair value'.... and before items.. TWTR actually saw a Q1 loss of 25 cents.. rather than the 7 cents headline number.
9.37am.. sp -6pts... which is a pretty lame open for the bears.
sp'daily5
Summary
*awaiting Q1 GDP data
--
We have an interesting day ahead.... not least with the Oil report at 10.30am.. and the FOMC at 2pm.
notable weakness: TWTR -2.6% in the low $41s. A daily close <$40 would be a real problem, and open up 'some weeks' in the mid/low $30s.
Casinos, WYNN -10%... lousy earnings.... MGM and LVS are following, -4%
Lumber liquidators -16% in the $27s. Did they not fix the toxic floors yet?
-
strength: GPRO +12% in the $51s... post earnings.. although it is notable that the stock was initially -5%.
--
Have a good day!
8.31am GDP: 0.2%..... vs 1.0% expected....
Lousy number... no question about it.
USD remains weak, -0.4% in the 95s. Already close to first target zone.
Equity indexes cooling a touch on the news.. sp -7pts.. 2107.
... now its a case of what the FOMC statement is.... I'm guessing the market will manage to still broadly climb.
8.42am.. USD still rapidly cooling, -0.6% in the DXY 95.40s. We're now a ful 5% lower from 7 weeks ago.
At this rate.. we'll be back to the breakout zone of 90/89 by mid June. If that is the case, I'll be going long UUP for a hyper-wave ramp to the 120s.
We've not forgotten about Greece, or the other EU PIIGS have we?
9.04am.. watching clown finance TV.... Cramer looking a bit bashed up after his beloved TWTR is smacked lower by 20%...
Re: TWTR early release of results '... this was trolling.... it was a glitch in the system... its not Twitters fault'
-- comedy gold.
-
9.11am.. Indexes are snapping lower , sp -13pts... back to 2101. If yesterdays low of 2094 is taken out... then things will get interesting.
In any case... the market is awaiting the FOMC.. although that won't see any actual changes... will it ?
9.16am.. TWTR -3.7% in the low $40s.... is it time that Cramer is put on suicide watch yet? Ironically, he was even making a TWTR joke just now.. and then kinda back tracked with a 'too early?'
The underlying issue.. as with all things... one of 'fair value'.... and before items.. TWTR actually saw a Q1 loss of 25 cents.. rather than the 7 cents headline number.
9.37am.. sp -6pts... which is a pretty lame open for the bears.
Another down day for the USD
The USD - King of paper world, continued to cool, with a net daily decline of -0.8% @ DXY 96.29. The 93/92s are within easy reach by mid May. Secondary target zone of 90/89 looks viable by mid June. Broader hyper-upside to the 120s looks due on the next wave... beginning sometime this summer.
USD, weekly
USD, daily
Summary
Suffice to say.. the fifth consecutive net daily decline, and the DXY 95s are already close. The first target zone of 93/92s looks easy to hit within the next 2-3 weeks.
A retrace... and then a hyper-ramp
USD, monthly'3, outlook
The above chart should clarify what I am seeking in the mid term. Under no outlook do I see sustained trading under the old breakout level of 90/89.
After all, do you really think the Euro/Yen are not going to devalue faster than the USD? Then there is the issue of huge capital inflows to the USA... increasing the upward pressure.
-
*I am looking to be long the USD (via long equity positions, but also UUP long dated option calls).. this summer. I will be seeking an entry in the 90/89 zone... which looks just about possible in June.. before the first realistic opportunity of renewed upside.
--
Looking ahead
Wednesday will be pretty important, with Pending home sales and the latest EIA report. However there is also the first reading for Q1 GDP. Market is expecting 1.0% growth, vs the Q4 of 2.2%.
Further.. we have the latest FOMC announcement (due 2pm). No change in policy is likely. There will NOT be a post Yellen press conf.
--
Goodnight from London
USD, weekly
USD, daily
Summary
Suffice to say.. the fifth consecutive net daily decline, and the DXY 95s are already close. The first target zone of 93/92s looks easy to hit within the next 2-3 weeks.
A retrace... and then a hyper-ramp
USD, monthly'3, outlook
The above chart should clarify what I am seeking in the mid term. Under no outlook do I see sustained trading under the old breakout level of 90/89.
After all, do you really think the Euro/Yen are not going to devalue faster than the USD? Then there is the issue of huge capital inflows to the USA... increasing the upward pressure.
-
*I am looking to be long the USD (via long equity positions, but also UUP long dated option calls).. this summer. I will be seeking an entry in the 90/89 zone... which looks just about possible in June.. before the first realistic opportunity of renewed upside.
--
Looking ahead
Wednesday will be pretty important, with Pending home sales and the latest EIA report. However there is also the first reading for Q1 GDP. Market is expecting 1.0% growth, vs the Q4 of 2.2%.
Further.. we have the latest FOMC announcement (due 2pm). No change in policy is likely. There will NOT be a post Yellen press conf.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5pts @ 2114 (intra low
2094). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.5% respectively. Near
term outlook remains bullish, with new historic highs due for all
indexes. The VIX continues to reflect a market that has virtually no
concern of anything.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
*a notable break of trend on the R2K, but the daily closing candle was somewhat bullish, offering a spike floor of 1242.
--
Not much to add. Most indexes merely saw a minor down cycle, but held within their broader upward trends. Only the R2K showed any significant downside.. but managed a relatively impressive net gain of 0.5%.
Overall... the broader trend remains unquestionably bullish.
--
a little more later..
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
*a notable break of trend on the R2K, but the daily closing candle was somewhat bullish, offering a spike floor of 1242.
--
Not much to add. Most indexes merely saw a minor down cycle, but held within their broader upward trends. Only the R2K showed any significant downside.. but managed a relatively impressive net gain of 0.5%.
Overall... the broader trend remains unquestionably bullish.
--
a little more later..
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