Despite the market swinging lower from opening gains, the VIX still failed to show any sig' upside power (intra high 15.42), settling -1.9% @ 14.41. Near term outlook threatens the sp'2090/2100 zone.. which would likely equate to VIX 12s. The key 20 threshold looks as out of reach as ever.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add... the VIX remains broadly subdued. There are sporadic little upside bursts of 3-5%... but they just don't hold, and the VIX looks set to remain stuck under the 20 threshold until late May.
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US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -0.3pts @ 2064. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is extremely messy, as there is clear threat of another push to the 2090/2100 zone.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: minor chop.. leaning weak, but settling well above the intraday low.
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So... that concludes May 12'th 2016.. in what remains one sick.. nasty... twisted casino.
I'm sure the financial historians of the 22nd century will overlook it, but today was a pretty good example of just how bizarre things currently are.
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re: near term targets... clearly, equity bears need to take out today's low of 2053 to negate the serious threat that we'll battle back upward to 2090/2100 early next week.
Even a move to the 2000/1990s looks difficult... as reflected in a VIX that appears magically pinned to the mid/low teens.
To those who survived today mentally intact.. congratulations, that puts you in the top 1%.
Despite a rather dynamic bearish opening reversal... with the market swinging from sp'2073 to 53, US equities are set to close moderately mixed. VIX continues to show no sustained/significant upside power... stuck in the lowly teens. For the equity bulls.. today was a little messy... but the market recovered yet again.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*re: hourly equity chart - I am trying to refrain from counting any of the waves, but hell, it ain't hard to see a large ABC /sub 2 wave.. starting from 2039... and ending somewhere close to 2100 next Mon/Tuesday.
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Little to add, on what has been a particularly twisted day.
I'm sure the day traders out there had a rather entertaining day, but for those with eyes more focused on the bigger picture, today offered very little clarity, as the market remains broadly stuck a mere 3-5% from historic highs.
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Here in London city..
Bullish UV.
Bearish shadow
After today, I could do with a week or two off.. but no... thats not viable. Each day... just... gets.... worse.
US equities remain broadly weak, but (as ever) there are buyers out there.... who are currently holding to the view that the market really has nothing to worry about in the near/mid.. or certainly... the longer term. That is currently reflected in the VIX, higher by just 1% in the upper 14s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Nothing to add... too many personal issues.
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notable weakness, AA, daily
Ugly chart.. ugly company... a break of the 200dma seems highly probable.. with the mid/low $8s next week.
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I need some sun/air, or I'll completely lose my gods damn mind ... back at 3pm
Whilst the broader market remains moderately weak, there is more significant weakness in the 'old leader' - Transports, which has taken out the Friday low (equiv' to sp'2039).. currently -1.5% in the 7500s. The market looks set for increasing weakness for the remainder of this week.
Trans, daily
sp'daily5
Summary
*note the sp'500 seeing a minor bounce from the 50dma of 2053.
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As things are.. a break of the sp'2039 low looks probable.. along with VIX 16/17s.
Most realistic bearish case is a weekly close in the 2020/10s... with VIX 18/19s.
however, I just can't see any justifiable catalyst (other than pure cyclical/technical reasons) to have any realistic hope of anything lower than that.
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notable weakness... AAPL, daily
With the $90 threshold taken out.. next big level is $70.. but for now.. the mainstream are in utter denial of what is currently underway.
US equities continue to unravel, with the sp -9pts @ 2054, with the VIX +3% in the 15s. USD +0.3% in the DXY 94.10s. Oil has seen a strong reversal, currently -0.7%.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly1b
Summary
..busy... brb.
*If only some of you knew the crap I am having to deal with right now.... jeez.
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re: weekly1b: a rather significantly FAIL-spike... somewhat suggestive of sp'2000/1990s...
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US equity indexes have seen a clear reversal, with most indexes already turning fractionally red. VIX is confirming the move, swinging from 13.95 to the 14.90s. As things are, things really only get interesting on a break of last Friday's low of sp'2039 - with VIX >17.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*I'm trying to not get lost in the minor noise this hour... so daily/monthly charts!
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A clear reversal.. as initially seen in the precious metals/miners.
Now its a case of whether a daily close in the 2050s... or the 40s.
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There are a truckload of interesting movers so far today...
I'll highlight the bigger monthly cycles.. as they are what really interest me....
US equities open higher, but the gains are less than pre-market levels. Far more notable is action in the precious metals/miners, which have seen a strong reversal. It remains the case that the broad strength in the metals/miners (since the Dec/Jan' low) are arguably an indirect bearish indicator for equities.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
It sure wasn't look so pretty an hour ago... but we clearly have a provisional reversal underway.. not just in equities, but reflected in a number of other asset classes.
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notable reversal... Gold, GLD, daily
Gold looks set to turn positive... with the miner ETF of GDX already +0.9% in the $25s.
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notable weakness... NFLX, daily
Ugly... real .. real ugly. First soft target is $70..... much like AAPL.
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10.03am.. The precise settling opening hourly equity candle.... BLACK-FAIL... with a major spike.. with hollow-red reversal for the VIX.
A real classic opening reversal... bulls got teased...
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10.15am.. AAPL breaks the Aug' flash print low of $92.00.. as negative iPhone7 chatter concerns some. Next big support.. $70.
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +12pts, we're set to open at 2076. USD is +0.3% in the DXY 94.00s. Metals are under pressure, Gold -$10, with Silver -1.0%. Oil is +1.5% in the upper $46s.
sp'60min
Summary
Well... I'm pretty damn bemused at the gains we're set to start with.
Its going to be tough to attain a net daily decline, unless some of the big money really hit the sell button today. The fact oil is making a play for the $47s only adds to the problems.
Lets see how high the algo-bots can drive this to the typical turn of 11am.
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Update from Mr C.
Oscar is sounding extremely bearish, and although he doesn't explicitly say it, he is clearly still seeing the broadly bullish price action in Gold as an indirect bearish warning for the US equity market.
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Overnight action
Japan: recovering into the close, +0.4% @ 16646
China: early sig' declines, but settling u/c @ 2835
Germany: currently +0.5% @ 10022
Have a good Thursday
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**Bonus video....
Just a short update from Mario at SMF...
Mario sure is quirky.. but he called the late Dec/Jan decline, and is seeking a 20% fall this summer/autumn.
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8.51am.. sp +9pts.. .2073..... so.. we're cooling a little....
Still though... its annoying we ain't opening straight into the 2050s...
Whilst US equities closed broadly lower, there was contrasting strength in WTIC oil, which settled +$2.19 (4.9%) at $46.75. The psy' level of $50 is the next natural upside target, but considering the US/world capital markets are set to get increasingly twitchy, that won't be easy.
WTIC, daily
WTIC, weekly
Summary
So.. with a break to the $47s... the $50 threshold is now really close... and its a bizarre thought that if Oil somehow reached $52.. that would be an effecting doubling.
However, considering the broader equity/capital markets should start to get increasingly twitchy into late May.. and especially across June... it would be surprising if Oil did not also start to cool on fears of weak global growth.
Then there is the underlying over-supply issue. Despite today's net weekly surplus of 3.4 million barrels, global supply remains well above demand... and that should keep prices from seeing any sustained action above the big $50 threshold.
I remain of the view that the $26 low will be tested again.. if not briefly broken to the upper teens..for capitulation in the energy industry.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, and import/export prices.
*there are a trio of fed officials on the loose.. and Mr Market will be listening for any hint that the Fed will hold off.. ahead of the BREXIT vote.
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4.07am BST.. still awake...
*bonus chart... for the real doomers out there..
sp'weekly8e
Ironically.. for those equity bears who can't much stand Oscar Carboni (its been a while since I received an emailed complaint for highlighting one of his videos), his 'failed head test' scenario is still offering one of the more valid bearish scenarios this summer/autumn.
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I shall close with this...
I could listen to the first 80 seconds of this... for eternity. Make of that... what you will.
US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -19pts @ 2064. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.5% and -1.2% respectively. Near
term outlook remains borderline, as until the Friday low of 2039 is
taken out, price action still remains pretty choppy... with a broadly
subdued VIX.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
sp'500: negating most of the Tuesday gains, but still well above the 50dma (2052). Equity bears need a break of the Friday low of 2039, to open up the 2000/1990s, from which another bounce would likely occur.
Dow: 217pts of the Tuesday gain of 222pts were negated.. which is pretty bearish.. and offers moderate opportunity for near term downside to the 17300/200s. A break <17K looks out of range for at least another 3-4 weeks.
