VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains crushed. sub-teens...the 10s look due to be hit again, and 9s are very viable.. as soon as next week if sp'2000s.
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more later.. on the indexes
Wednesday, 23 July 2014
Volatility continues to melt lower
With US equities breaking new historic highs, the VIX was naturally knocked lower in the morning, settling -5.9% @ 11.52. VIX 10s look a viable weekly close, and the only issue is when will we see single digit VIX?
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains crushed. sub-teens...the 10s look due to be hit again, and 9s are very viable.. as soon as next week if sp'2000s.
--
more later.. on the indexes
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains crushed. sub-teens...the 10s look due to be hit again, and 9s are very viable.. as soon as next week if sp'2000s.
--
more later.. on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp +3pts @ 1987. However, most notable, another set of new historic highs for the sp'500 & Trans. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.2%. Near term outlook is bullish into next FOMC (July'30).
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting earnings from FB, T, and QCOM.
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...and another day come to a close.
Suffice to say, price action remains the same. Mostly a combo of low volume algo-bot upside melt..with periodic QE to help.
Certainly, this is no market to be shorting.. and is one to be long..although I realise the notion of going long into the sp'2000s seems pricey.
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting earnings from FB, T, and QCOM.
---
...and another day come to a close.
Suffice to say, price action remains the same. Mostly a combo of low volume algo-bot upside melt..with periodic QE to help.
Certainly, this is no market to be shorting.. and is one to be long..although I realise the notion of going long into the sp'2000s seems pricey.
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - upside melt into the close
US equities are holding moderate gains, with notable new historic highs in the sp & trans. A daily close in the sp'1988/92 zone appears likely. VIX remains crushed, -4% in the 11.70s. Metals and Oil are seeing minor chop.
sp'60min
Summary
*5/15min cycles are offering minor upside into the close, and the 1990s are viable in the closing hour.
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Regardless of exactly where we close, the broader trend remains fully intact, and the sp'2000s look very viable next week.
Whether we close July in the 1990s..2000s.. or 2010s... should make no difference to anyone, not least those on the long side.
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Notable strength: DAL
Headed for the mid/upper 40s into late summer.
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updates into the close...especially if we do break into the 1990s.
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*earnings due at the close... AT & T (T) , QCOM, and .... FB
3.23pm.. sp'1988...market seems to want a daily close in the low 1990s.
Lets see how many bears will get twitchy..and make a run for it into the close!
sp'60min
Summary
*5/15min cycles are offering minor upside into the close, and the 1990s are viable in the closing hour.
--
Regardless of exactly where we close, the broader trend remains fully intact, and the sp'2000s look very viable next week.
Whether we close July in the 1990s..2000s.. or 2010s... should make no difference to anyone, not least those on the long side.
-
Notable strength: DAL
Headed for the mid/upper 40s into late summer.
--
updates into the close...especially if we do break into the 1990s.
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*earnings due at the close... AT & T (T) , QCOM, and .... FB
3.23pm.. sp'1988...market seems to want a daily close in the low 1990s.
Lets see how many bears will get twitchy..and make a run for it into the close!
2pm update - the upside resumes
A single net hourly decline is probably all the equity bears are going to get today (yeah, I realise how annoying that is to hear). A close in the sp'1985/90 zone looks probable. VIX reflects a fearless market... no matter how many civilian/military planes are shot down.
R2K, 60min
Summary
If you will indulge my own long-index trade for this hour...
The R2K broke out last Friday. A perfect back test against the old down channel.. and we're now in some form of up wave. So long as we don't break back under 1150, I ain't worried.
A weekly close in the 1170s would give me confidence about the outlook into the late summer... where we should be in the mid 1250/75 zone.
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yours...
in a rather hot capital city.
R2K, 60min
Summary
If you will indulge my own long-index trade for this hour...
The R2K broke out last Friday. A perfect back test against the old down channel.. and we're now in some form of up wave. So long as we don't break back under 1150, I ain't worried.
A weekly close in the 1170s would give me confidence about the outlook into the late summer... where we should be in the mid 1250/75 zone.
-
yours...
in a rather hot capital city.
1pm update - minor down wave
US equities have cooled a little from the earlier historic highs (Trans/SP), but overall price action remains very strong. Daily net index gains look likely... with the giant sp'2000 level likely to be hit next week.
sp'60min
Summary
So... a down hour... the horror!
I'd guess the micro 5/15min cycles will be fully reset by 2.30pm.. with upside into the close.
*I'd like an R2K close in the 1160s... a break into the 1170s is kinda important this week.
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Update from Riley
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back at 2pm
sp'60min
Summary
So... a down hour... the horror!
I'd guess the micro 5/15min cycles will be fully reset by 2.30pm.. with upside into the close.
*I'd like an R2K close in the 1160s... a break into the 1170s is kinda important this week.
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Update from Riley
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back at 2pm
12pm update - more of the same
US equities are holding moderate gains, with closing net gains seemingly very probable. A daily close in the sp'1990s appear likely today... or tomorrow. The R2K is playing catchup, the 1170s remain an important to break..and hold over.
sp'weekly8
Summary
So... what now huh?
Well, with another QE tomorrow..and price action as it is - along with low volume, just about everything favours the bulls.
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VIX update from Mr T
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time for lunch
sp'weekly8
Summary
So... what now huh?
Well, with another QE tomorrow..and price action as it is - along with low volume, just about everything favours the bulls.
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VIX update from Mr T
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time for lunch
11am update - pushing higher
After some mixed opening chop, the market is back into algo-bot melt mode (helped by some QE), and the sp'500 is pushing to new highs. The giant 2000 threshold is a mere 0.5% away.
sp'60min
R2K, daily
Summary
Volume is low... its a QE day (as is tomorrow), and with no downside pressure, we're back to just pushing higher.
Based on the R2K chart, the broader market could rally all the way into next FOMC/GDP day.. Wed' July30th.
Notable strength: AAPL +2.9% @ $97.40s... on its way to $100.. and beyond.
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*I remain content to hold long-index into tomorrow.
sp'60min
R2K, daily
Summary
Volume is low... its a QE day (as is tomorrow), and with no downside pressure, we're back to just pushing higher.
Based on the R2K chart, the broader market could rally all the way into next FOMC/GDP day.. Wed' July30th.
Notable strength: AAPL +2.9% @ $97.40s... on its way to $100.. and beyond.
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*I remain content to hold long-index into tomorrow.
10am update - opening minor chop
US indexes open with some minor chop, although it is notable that the sp'500 and Transports both break new historic highs. With next to zero downside pressure, Mr Market looks set for net daily gains.
sp'60min
R2K, daily
Summary
Opening hourly candle...a new high, then a reversal...but still...price action remains very strong.
So...a bit of chop, but that is expected. There is a wheel barrow of QE due this morning (and tomorrow)... who would dare be short this?
Ohh, and as for more planes being shot down in the Ukraine. For now... it is entirely irrelevant.
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*I hold moderately long, R2K, from 1154... seeking the 1170s before end of this week. Seems a viable target.
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Notable strength: airlines, DAL +3.2%... breaking out of what is a giant bull flag....
Mid/upper 40s look due later this summer
10.25am.. R2K making a play for the 1160s.. .which will open up 1170s late today..or tomorrow.
VIX is in melt mode, -3% in the 11.80s.
10.37am.... entire market...pushing higher...VIX getting seriously crushed, -6% in the 11.40s...10s look an easy target.
sp'60min
R2K, daily
Summary
Opening hourly candle...a new high, then a reversal...but still...price action remains very strong.
So...a bit of chop, but that is expected. There is a wheel barrow of QE due this morning (and tomorrow)... who would dare be short this?
Ohh, and as for more planes being shot down in the Ukraine. For now... it is entirely irrelevant.
-
*I hold moderately long, R2K, from 1154... seeking the 1170s before end of this week. Seems a viable target.
-
Notable strength: airlines, DAL +3.2%... breaking out of what is a giant bull flag....
Mid/upper 40s look due later this summer
10.25am.. R2K making a play for the 1160s.. .which will open up 1170s late today..or tomorrow.
VIX is in melt mode, -3% in the 11.80s.
10.37am.... entire market...pushing higher...VIX getting seriously crushed, -6% in the 11.40s...10s look an easy target.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +2pts , we're set to open at 1985. Precious metals are similarly higher, Gold +$2. Equity bulls have fair opportunity of the sp'1990s today..or tomorrow, the QE will no doubt help.
sp'daily5
Summary
So.. we're set to open a touch higher, on a day when the market will see another $2bn or so of QE thrown at it.
Price structure on the hourly chart is a baby bull flag, and it might take another 2-4 hours to complete. Regardless, I'd expect a net daily gain.
--
Mr Permabull returns... from the basement.
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Good wishes for Wednesday trading.
sp'daily5
Summary
So.. we're set to open a touch higher, on a day when the market will see another $2bn or so of QE thrown at it.
Price structure on the hourly chart is a baby bull flag, and it might take another 2-4 hours to complete. Regardless, I'd expect a net daily gain.
--
Mr Permabull returns... from the basement.
--
Good wishes for Wednesday trading.
Another set of new historic highs
Despite a few shaky trading days recently, the broader trend has remained intact. Indeed, with new historic highs in the Transports and Sp'500 today, the equity bulls are on track for yet another monthly net gain. Incredible.
Trans, monthly
sp'weekly8
Summary
The 'old leader is now 3.1% higher so far this month... and it will surely make for the sixth consecutive monthly gain. On any basis, that is a huge achievement for the equity bulls. Considering the current price action, another 2-3 months of net monthly gains look... probable.
Similarly, despite the current blue candle on the sp'500 weekly chart, we did fractionally break a new high today of 1986. The 1990s look easily within range, and it is highly notable that the upper bollinger is already offering the 2010s.
Looking ahead
The only minor thing of note tomorrow - aside from various corporate earnings, will be the EIA oil report.
*there is sig' QE of around $2bn... bears beware!
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Hitting a button
Finally, after a fair few days of watching this nonsense, I entered a trade. I am long the R2K from 1154, seeking the 1170s by end of this week. In the bigger picture, I'm somewhat resigned to the 1300s at some point, although that seems more likely next year.
Goodnight from London
Trans, monthly
sp'weekly8
Summary
The 'old leader is now 3.1% higher so far this month... and it will surely make for the sixth consecutive monthly gain. On any basis, that is a huge achievement for the equity bulls. Considering the current price action, another 2-3 months of net monthly gains look... probable.
Similarly, despite the current blue candle on the sp'500 weekly chart, we did fractionally break a new high today of 1986. The 1990s look easily within range, and it is highly notable that the upper bollinger is already offering the 2010s.
Looking ahead
The only minor thing of note tomorrow - aside from various corporate earnings, will be the EIA oil report.
*there is sig' QE of around $2bn... bears beware!
--
Hitting a button
Finally, after a fair few days of watching this nonsense, I entered a trade. I am long the R2K from 1154, seeking the 1170s by end of this week. In the bigger picture, I'm somewhat resigned to the 1300s at some point, although that seems more likely next year.
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US indexes closed higher, sp +9pts @ 1983. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. Most notable, new historic highs in the Trans/SP'500. Near term outlook is bullish into the sp'1990s.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
Without question, the most notable aspect of today was another set of new highs, in the Transports and sp'500.
The past week was certainly a little shaky for the market, but with new highs being hit, things are once again clear. We're headed higher.
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
Without question, the most notable aspect of today was another set of new highs, in the Transports and sp'500.
The past week was certainly a little shaky for the market, but with new highs being hit, things are once again clear. We're headed higher.
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
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