Monday 17 December 2018

Victory, victory you say

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -54pts (2.1%) at 2545. Nasdaq comp' -2.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.1% and -2.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a Fed/Powell induced bounce, but all bounces are to be seen as such.




US equities opened moderately weak, and quickly spiraled to significant declines. From a low of sp'2567, the market rebounded back to fractionally positive.Then Gundlach appeared on CNBC in the lunchtime hour, and equities swung back lower. The afternoon was outright ugly, with the closing hour seeing a break below the February low.

Volatility climbed for a second day, settling +13.4% at 24.52. All things considered, the VIX should be trading around 35 right now.

Victory, victory you say

In pre-market, the US President began his day...

If we're in the sp'2300/200s in early 2019, will the US President still call it a victory? No doubt, his suggestions to the fed will become more direct. Arguably, to get back on Trump's 'good list', Powell will need to cut rates by mid 2019, not least if the EU is officially in recession, and US growth has slowed to 2.0% or lower.

If only Grand Admiral Thrawn was in command of the Fed!

Four days until winter solstice

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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