VIX holds moderate gains

Despite equity indexes breaking a pair of new historic highs in the morning, the VIX opened higher, and built gains across the day, settling +6.7% @ 13.12. Near term outlook is for the broad equity upside to continue into May. The big VIX 20 threshold looks out of range for some weeks.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

A net daily gain in the VIX, but still.. a VIX that struggles just to break into the 13s.

Considering the broader equity trends, there is little reason to believe VIX has any significant opportunity to break into the 20s until at least mid June.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed somewhat weak, sp -8pts @ 2108 (new historic high 2125). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -1.2% respectively. Outlook is for continued broad upside into May.. if not across the summer... helped by a retracing USD.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting earnings from the tech behemoth of AAPL
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A pretty tedious day.

More than anything, I'm beyond tired of seeing the same nonsense talk across the usual sites. The same people calling another top... on the very day that two of the bigger indexes (sp'500/NYSE comp') break new historic highs.

The broader trend remains bullish.

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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - a new high is a new high

Despite some moderate weakness into the afternoon, it has been another day for the equity bulls, with the broader upward trend resulting in another pair of new highs (sp'500/NYSE comp'). With just 3 trading days left of the month, most indexes are set for net monthly gains of around 2%.


sp'daily5

Summary

*notable weakness in the R2K, -1.1%.. sitting on rising trend that stretches back to October.
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Despite the currently red indexes.. it is utterly a joke for any of the doomer bears to be calling this anything than what it really is... another day when the broad based sp'500 achieved a new historic high of 2125.

Back in early summer 2013 when I waved the white flag against the deflationary collapse scenario - that many still cling to... well, we were in the sp'1500s then. 

We simply won't be trading under those levels... again.

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notable strength: AAPL, +0.9% in the $131s.

Without question, one of the top 3 tech companies in the world.. set to report in AH.. probably around 4.30pm. The $140s are just about possible if expectations are surpassed.

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back at the close

2pm update - just another day for the top callers

With the down cycle from the new historic high of sp'2125 to 2111, the top calling maniacs have again started to appear. It remains ever more bizarre how the majority get increasingly twitchy unless equity indexes are breaking a new high each hour... EVERY hour.


sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add, on what is just another day when the market breaks a new high... retraces a little, but with so many getting concerned 'is that it?'.

So few seem interested in the big picture these days. Oh well...

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notable strength: TSLA +6.4% in the 230s.

Daily candle is a little spiky right now, but still... the recent break is absolutely clear - from a bull flag no less. The 250/60 zone looks an easy target for May/June.

1pm update - weaker USD helping the relics

Whilst US equities have cooled a little from earlier highs, there is notable strength in the precious metals. With the USD -0.4% in the DXY 96.50s, the metals are seeing some natural upward pressure, Gold +$27, with Silver +4.5%. Oil remains u/c though... but holding within a broader upward trend.


GLD, daily

USO'60min

Summary

Little to add.

I'm beyond tired of seeing borderline hysteria on any down swing of 0.5%.. its frankly lame.

We're now at the stage where if the market is not breaking a new historic high every few hours, the top callers have the guile to crawl out of the trenches.

Incredible denial... and no doubt, it will only get worse.

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notable weakness: Dow stocks:  MCD -1.7%.  HD -1.3%

12pm update - a man will not...

US equity indexes are holding moderate gains, having broken new historic highs of 2125 (sp'500) and 11248 (NYSE comp'). With the USD -0.3%, the metals are especially strong, Gold +$23, with Silver +4.1%. Oil is struggling, back to u/c in the $57s.

UUP, weekly

Summary

*the break in the USD should be clear to anyone by now. USD looks headed for DXY 93/92 within the next month or two. For me, the only issue is whether the retrace is a little faster..  or even sharper... to 90/89.

Under no outlook do I see a move back below the breakout level of 87s. USD looks set to resume higher this year.. to the 120s.. which would likely cause at least some degree of market upset.

For now, its merely a case of equity grind.. to the upside.

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notable strength:  miners, GDX +3.5%.. .as the precious metals rise, although price structure remains a very bearish H/S formation.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch

11am update - 13pts to go

Whilst the broader market remains holding moderate gains, the Nasdaq comp' has notably come within a mere 13pts of the tech bubble high of 5132. A key break through looks inevitable.. opening up 6-7k. Metals have built significant gains, Gold +$22.. whilst Oil has turned lower, -0.3%


Nasdaq comp' daily

Summary

Anyone still doubt the broader market upside?

It remains somewhat bemusing to me how few are taking much of this seriously. A break of 5132 is viable today... and looks a certainty this week.

From there... it'll be interesting to see what targets start to appear in the mainstream for the Nasdaq.. and indeed, the broader market. Upgrades look due.
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notable strength: TWTR, +2.8% in the $52s.

Earnings are due at the Tuesday close.. viable upside to 57/62.

10am update - opening gains

US equities start the week on a moderately positive note, with a new historic high of sp'2125. The Nasdaq comp' has already hit 5108, a mere 26pts (0.5%) from breaking the bubble high of spring 2000. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$7. Oil is +0.4%


sp'daily5

Summary

*there is notable strength in the EU markets...  the US markets are relatively lagging a little.
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The underlying upward pressure continues, and it'd seem consensus is starting to believe no rate hikes this year. I shall hope that is not the case.

USD +0.1% @ DXY 97.01... renewed weakness looks due this week... and that will certainly help equities.. and Oil.

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early gains... AAPL +2% in the $132s... the 140s look just about viable on earnings... due at the close of today.

TSLA +4.8 @ $229... having seen a major break of down trend last week.

Clear break of the 200dma... next upside target is $250/60.. looks pretty easy in May.
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Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equities are starting the week a little higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at a new historic high of 2122. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$7, with Silver +0.8%. Oil is set to open -0.2%, but holding within the large upward trend.


sp'daily5

Summary

So... another new week begins. There is little reason why we won't end April (May is this Friday) in the sp'2130s.

Biggest issue this week will be the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, but that shouldn't hold bear any surprises.

China had a strong day, settling +3% in the 4500s, that now makes for a monthly gain of around 20%. The giant 5k threshold is within reach by late May/early June... pretty incredible. A 20/30% pull back - back to 4000/3500 remains a high possibility, but really, who wants to dare step in front of that freight train?

notable early strength: DIS +1.1% @ $110.70... another new high
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Update from Oscar


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 Good wishes for the week ahead!