Monday 16 December 2013

Volatility gains with the indexes

Whilst the main indexes closed with rather impressive gains, the VIX managed a minor gain, settling +1.7% @ 16.03. There is certainly a touch of market concern ahead of the FOMC though, but once that is past..VIX should melt lower into year end.




The fifth consecutive daily gain for the VIX..which in itself is somewhat unusual.

Certainly, market volatility is creeping higher, but the 20s look out of range until at least late Jan/Feb.

Equity bulls should be seeking a break of trend, and for that, will need VIX <15.50 by the end of this week.

So long as the Fed do not change policy and/or spook the market with something 'odd' this Wednesday afternoon, VIX should start to melt lower this week..and probably for the remainder of the year.
more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes all closed with rather impressive gains (considering Sunday night futures), with the sp +11pts @ 1786. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and 1.2% respectively. Near term outlook is a touch choppy, but strong gains once we are post-FOMC Wednesday.



For the equity bears, today has been a real disappointment. All those hopes of Sunday night, where the futures were sp -15pts (or so) to the 1750s, has already faded away to nothing.

Yes, there is the FOMC this Wednesday, but seriously, how can anyone expect the Fed to change policy a week before the Christmas holiday..and before the Bernanke has exited.

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - battling for a close in the 1790s

The Sunday night futures of sp -15pts now look somewhat laughable. Instead of the sp'1750s, we're set for a daily close in the low sp'1790s. Metals are losing their gains, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is holding +1.0%. Once the uncertainty of the FOMC is out of the way... things should be real straight forward until late January.



It remains an extremely quiet start to the week.

The VIX remains a touch positive, and normally I'd be highlighting that as a major problem for the bulls, but..unless you really think the Fed will change policy this Wednesday, the VIX is to be dismissed.

An hour to go..lets see if we get a daily close in the 1790s. Certainly, the underlying pressure should be enough.

3.33pm.. a micro wave to the downside..but hey..we're still holding half of the opening gains, and considering the recent weakness...bulls should be more than content.

Some interesting strength in Ford (F)....whilst the TWTR is cooling down after last weeks hyper-ramp.

3.44pm.. the micro 5min cycle due to snap higher into the close...bears in trouble.

A close in the 1790s..still viable.

2pm update - small bull flag

The main indexes are holding most of the gains, with a pretty clear small bull flag on the 15min cycle. The sp' looks set for a daily close in the 1790s..which opens up the 1800s by the time of the FOMC announcement on Wed' at 2pm. Metals and Oil similarly both higher.



Even without any annotations, the bull flag is clear enough.

MACD cycle is already looking floored, and we're approaching the typical turn time of 2.30pm.

Lets see if the bull maniacs can manage a daily close in the 1790s..not that it is 'vital'.

FB is offering a double top at $54

..but it'll probably break through, given a few days.

1pm update - the two leaders are leading

The two leading market indexes - Transports/Rus'2000 small cap, are leading the way higher, both are higher by around 0.9%. This is day'3 to the upside for both indexes, and they offer a clearer price structure, than other indexes. New highs..look

R2K, daily

Trans, daily


Regardless of how you might like to count this nonsense..the primary trend remains up.

I sure saw a lot of doomer talk this weekend, where are those posters now?

Where will they be, if sp'1800s, after the FOMC announce no-taper this Wednesday?

Perhaps, more than anything, it remains bizarre at those bears who are still touting an imminent multi-month..even multi-year top!  After two years of near straight up ramp, you'd think they'd at least wait for a month or two of chop.

1.20pm.. sp'1782...resistance last Thursday..should be support this afternoon.

Considering the QE money sloshing around out there today, a close in the 1790s..still very viable.

12pm update - bull flag on the weekly chart

The more important weekly cycles are offering a rather clear bull flag,, as seen best on the Dow. The once laggy Dow is holding above the old six month trading range. End year target is 16300/500, if the Fed doesn't upset anyone!

Dow, weekly


*baring a weekly close <15650, it remains pretty bullish

Despite the opening gains, its pretty quiet out there, where is everyone?

Once Wednesday is out of the way, it will probably just be a case of algo-bot melt into year end. Unlike last December, market seems utterly unconcerned about any budgetary/debt ceiling least for now.

VIX update from Mr T.

time for lunch!

12.36pm.. a very clear small bull flag on the 15min index charts.

Anyone getting overly excited about the morning pull back..., err.. no...we ain't closing red. Go stare at that weekly chart for the rest of the day.

Yes, VIX is green...but then..we have the FOMC this Wednesday.

11am update - QE fuelled week

Regardless of the minor noise across the rest of today, equity bears need to be mindful of a market that will see very heavy QE, especially this Thur/Friday. Metals are trying to rally, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is build gains of 1.2%. VIX is holding largely doubt due to the certainty of the FOMC.



*no surprise to see the market get stuck in the low 1790s, where there is obvious upper bol' resistance on the hourly cycle.

However, we have the cycles putting in a clear the upside. I realise some will be touting a full reversal lower..with a slightly red close, but that doesn't look at all viable.

Notable mover: STX, +2.6%, trying to break a new high.

Seagate is probably a $100 stock in 2015. Go check the balance sheet!

11.29am.. a little morning chop..but we're comfortably higher..and the 1772 low looks a strong floor for the rest of this month.

Baring a truly bizarre decision by the Fed to alter policy this Wednesday, there is zero reason why the market won't rally for the remainder of the year.

*metals gaining, Gold +$11, Silver +48 cents..2.5%... kinda interesting, but they remain old broken support.

10am update - Dow re-takes old broken support

Equity indexes jump higher to start the last full trading week of the year. Most notable, the Dow, which has jumped back over the old broken resistance/support level. Equity bulls should be charging for a daily close in the 16000s this week. VIX is lower, but only by -2%.

Dow' daily



Well, this is one way to start a week!

The triple floor of sp'1772 is now a strong floor, and with MACD daily cycle turns, bears have very major problems this week.

Hell, clown finance TV is talking about a market that has 'priced QE-taper' in, lol

Notable Dow mover: XOM, +3%.. that is a major move for such a world corporate giant.

FB +$ the 54s...challenging the Oct' high. A break into the 55s, should confirm $60s will be hit.

10.32am..touch of chop..but the hourly and daily cycles now offering a clear upward turn.

Just a case of how high we close..and whether the 1800s are viable at the time of the FOMC.

With sig' QE today..bears face..too tough a task.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have swung sharply higher from overnight lows, sp +9pts, we're set to open around 1784. Metals are a touch lower, whilst Oil +0.7%. With sig' QE today, equity bears face the usual problems.



I realise, those who went to bed last night with futures of sp -9pts will be somewhat dismayed at the looming open of +9pts.

Personally, I just have to laugh...its not like we've not been through this a few hundred times already.

Notable early movers: TWTR, -1.9%, but the general trend is still starkly higher.

9.37am... sp'1790s due...and those 1800s are back in range by tomorrow.

Bears...on the run!