Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
The sp' climbed a very important 1.4% this week, breaking a new historic high of 1963. The media is understandably now getting increasingly obsessed over the giant psychological threshold of 2000. Whether that occurs in the next few weeks..or later this year... is difficult to say. What is clear, the primary trend remains strongly to the upside.
There is strong rising trend support in the 1850s, and that will have risen to 1900 by late July. Equity bears should be aiming for a July monthly close somewhere under 1900 to offer the first hope of a late summer/early autumn upset.
Nasdaq Comp'
The tech gained 1.3% this week, and fractionally broke (by a single point) the March high of 4371. There looks to be upside to the 4500/4600s by mid July. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for the eighth consecutive week, and there is potential for a further 2-4 weeks of upside.
Dow
The mighty Dow gained 1% this week, although is still 22pts shy of the next key level of 17k. However, the 17000s do look set to be hit, whether late June.. or mid July. Key rising support by end July will be in the 16700s. On any basis, equity bears should be seeking a July monthly closing under 16500 or so.
NYSE Comp'
The master index is now in the 11000s..a new historic high. There looks to be a further 200/300pts of upside into mid July.. at which point even this index should start to roll over.
R2K
The second market leader gained an impressive 2.2% this week, and looks set to break above the March high of 1212. There looks to be viable upside in July to the 1225/50 zone.
Trans
The 'old leader' gained 2% this week, but interestingly, did not break last weeks high. There looks to be further upside to the 8400/8500s by mid July.
Summary
So.. we have new historic highs for the sp'500 and NYSE Comp', with the Nasdaq breaking a post 2009 high. The Dow, R2K, and Trans', all look set to follow with new highs into July.
Late summer/autumnal upset?
The ultimate question is whether we just keep on climbing all the way into next year.. or whether we see some form of sharp (but brief) down wave. Something on the order of 15/20% would sure make for one hell of a 'shake out'.
sp'weekly4
The above chart is from last summer, and it is somewhat disturbing to see that we are now in the original target zone of 1950/2050. I continue to have some hope that this scenario was indeed the correct one all along, but as ever.. 'hope' is not a trading strategy. Equity bears should be aiming for a July monthly close under 1900, before they can start dreaming of much lower levels.
Looking ahead
There are a fair few data points next week. However, Wednesday will be the most important day, with Durable Goods orders, and the final reading for Q1 GDP. Market is expecting a further downward revision from -1.0%.. to somewhere in the -1.5/-2.0% range.
*there is sig' QE-pomo: Monday $1-2bn, Wed' $2-3bn
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back on Monday :)
