Monday 27 August 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

A broadly flat close for the market, on what was yet again beyond-abysmal volume. This market may as well be shut until after the US labor day holiday next Monday.

Dow, daily




The tranports was again particularly weak today - it sure is more volatile than just about anything else out there. Near term trend is most definately downward.

The broader sp/dow showed a touch of weakness into the close, but it remains all noise.

Downside targets for this Thur/Friday morning, are dow'12800, and sp'1380. I expect a bounce post-Bernanke this Friday and into next Tuesday (Sept'4).

A little more later.

Closing Brief

The market closed broadly flat, with volume at near record lows (even for August), the VIX closed almost 8% higher.





Just a quick note, market closed broadly in line...everything is now set up for some level of is 1380.

More later.

3pm update - closing hour weakness

Seeking a broadly flat close on the main indexes. Note that the old leader, tranny is -0.5%, equivilent to around dow-65pts. VIX looks like it might close in the low 16s.



Lets see if there are any sellers out there!

...more after the close!

2pm update - micro-moves

It looks like the hourly cycles are done, and we're way due for a down move across Tuesday and into Wednesday.



So, lets see if we get a rollover, and then the issue is whether we can break the previous low of 1398. A close in the 1390s will be the target for Wed/Thursday.

Yet, in the scheme of things, these are indeed embaressingly small moves. As I noted a few weeks ago, 'most people' should turn off their screens and come back in mid-September.

Stay tuned.

1pm update - a little weakness this afternoon

A quiet day still, lets see how much the bots want to sell things off this afternoon.



Seeking a broadly flat close, with a hit of 1380 no later than the Friday open.

12pm update - still seeking 1380

Market remains in slow crawl mode, I'm still looking for a flat doji close. VIX clinging onto moderate gains.



Nothing much to add, a quiet day, tomorrow will likely be a lot more dynamic.

Time for lunch

11am update - 1380, bounce, then major fail ?

A relatively quiet opening 90 minutes, there really isn't anything likely to move the market until tomorrow. A daily close with a doji candle would seem fitting.

VIX continues to battle higher, a peak of 18/19 later this week seems 'best bear case'.

Sp'daily5b, scenarios


A new chart to outline the broad scenarios. A' remains very possible, sp'1450/75 this autumn remains well well within range if there sellside volume remains non-existant.

Right now, best guess is a bounce off 1380, but putting in a slightly lower high <1426...before a wave lower. Yet this is entirely dependent upon so many issues, not least the market getting majorly spooked pre-election by 'something'.

Anyone looking to take a new short block, should arguably wait until middle of next week, after the post-hole hysteria has quietened down a bit.

Whatever the Bernanke says this Friday at the hole, I'd expect the market to rally off it. It is important to note that Draghi is at the hole on Saturday, so bears holding long across this coming weekend are at high risk of a Monday gap higher.

More later

10am update - a quiet Monday

Good morning. Aside from the little quakes in California, and Tropical storm Isaac in the Gulf of Mexico, it really is kinda quiet out there.

We do have lots of econ-data this week, starting tomorrow, so in theory, it should be more active than last week. Lets not forget, this is the week of the hole. Urghh.


VIX, daily


I've added a black minor count, I have only low-confidence though in this. Index target would be somewhere around 1380 by Thur/early Friday, and then a bounce AFTER the Bernanke has spoken. Perhaps from 1380 to 1410, putting in a lower high.

I will continue to drone on about how important 1354 is. Until we break that, we are most certainly still putting in higher highs..and higher lows. Bullish!

*Stock movers, TIF, +6% (earnings less bad than expected, go figure), AAPL, +17 to 680, pretty impressive, but relative to the main market, its cheap.