sp'60min
Summary
A touch of renewed weakness into the close, but really... moderate declines are nothing for the equity bears to get excited about.
.... just one trading day left of the year........... thank the gods!
--
a daily wrap at 8pm EST.
Tuesday, 30 December 2014
Closing Brief
US equities closed moderately weak, sp -10pts @ 2080. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.5% respectively. The smaller hourly cycles are suggestive of another wave higher into mid January... to the sp'2130/50 zone.
sp'60min
Summary
A touch of renewed weakness into the close, but really... moderate declines are nothing for the equity bears to get excited about.
.... just one trading day left of the year........... thank the gods!
--
a daily wrap at 8pm EST.
sp'60min
Summary
A touch of renewed weakness into the close, but really... moderate declines are nothing for the equity bears to get excited about.
.... just one trading day left of the year........... thank the gods!
--
a daily wrap at 8pm EST.
3pm update - minor chop into the close
Equities remain moderately weak, a net daily gain looks highly unlikely. Regardless of the close, the broader up trend from sp'1972 (Dec'16th)... continues. Metals are cooling from their earlier highs... Gold +$16. Oil remains choppy, +0.5%
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add... on what was just another quiet day of pre-holiday trading.
Things really won't get going until Mon' Jan 5th... a full week... in a new year :)
--
*still time to submit your end-2015 sp'500 prediction.. see HERE for details.
--
daily wrap at 8pm EST
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add... on what was just another quiet day of pre-holiday trading.
Things really won't get going until Mon' Jan 5th... a full week... in a new year :)
--
*still time to submit your end-2015 sp'500 prediction.. see HERE for details.
--
daily wrap at 8pm EST
2pm update - moderately weak
There is no sign of a latter day rally, and market has broken new intraday lows of sp'2079... ohh the humanity, a red close? Metals are broadly holding gains, Gold +$17. Oil remains in chop mode.. having broken support yesterday, +0.4%.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
*daily MACD (blue bar histogram) is starting to rollover, but I can't take any of this seriously.. not least with it being a holiday week.
--
No sign of buyers today.. but then.. neither are there many sellers out there.
It is merely a minor down wave.. before sp'2100s.. which are STILL possible tomorrow.
--
Notable weakness: momo stocks.. TWTR -1.9%, FB, -1.1%
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
*daily MACD (blue bar histogram) is starting to rollover, but I can't take any of this seriously.. not least with it being a holiday week.
--
No sign of buyers today.. but then.. neither are there many sellers out there.
It is merely a minor down wave.. before sp'2100s.. which are STILL possible tomorrow.
--
Notable weakness: momo stocks.. TWTR -1.9%, FB, -1.1%
12pm update - chop chop
Equities remain moderately weak... with a very viable latter day rally. Metals are holding strong gains, Gold +$19, with Silver +3.2%. Oil has already turned a touch red, having earlier bounced by around 0.6%. VIX is higher for a second day, but overall.. showing no real upside power.
sp'60min
Summary
Without getting lost in the minor noise, it remains a case of 'what about the recent breakout in the R2K?'
By definition, it is an extremely bullish signal.. and it utterly bemuses me how some are calling for major downside.. even to the sp'1800s in early 2015.
-
Notable weakness, CHK -1.7%... not surprising, with Nat' gas still falling
DRYS -7.0%.. no doubt, the penny share buyers are meddling a lot in this one lately... price action sure suggests that is the case.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea... back at 2pm
sp'60min
Summary
Without getting lost in the minor noise, it remains a case of 'what about the recent breakout in the R2K?'
By definition, it is an extremely bullish signal.. and it utterly bemuses me how some are calling for major downside.. even to the sp'1800s in early 2015.
-
Notable weakness, CHK -1.7%... not surprising, with Nat' gas still falling
DRYS -7.0%.. no doubt, the penny share buyers are meddling a lot in this one lately... price action sure suggests that is the case.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea... back at 2pm
11am update - time for a turn
US equities are moderately lower, but look set for a latter day rally. The sp'2100s are still on course, not least with the recent breakout in the R2K. Oil remains choppy, and has already started to cool from the earlier high. Metals are building gains, Gold +$21... but having been broadly choppy since September.
sp'60min
Summary
So... anyone want to get overly excited about this mornings minor down cycle? Seriously, any top callers out there today?
Market looks set for at least some degree of latter day rally... as has often been the case across the last few years.
Notable weakness: TWTR -2.3%.... its been a rough year for that stock...
TWTR, daily
-
time to cook!
sp'60min
Summary
So... anyone want to get overly excited about this mornings minor down cycle? Seriously, any top callers out there today?
Market looks set for at least some degree of latter day rally... as has often been the case across the last few years.
Notable weakness: TWTR -2.3%.... its been a rough year for that stock...
TWTR, daily
time to cook!
10am update - much like yesterday
US equities open much in the style of yesterday morning.. a little lower, but with declines that look likely to be fully negated within a few hours. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$15. Oil is seeing moderate chop, +0.5%... but looking highly vulnerable to losing the $50 psy level in the near term.
sp'60min
USO, 60min'2
Summary
*oil bouncing... price structure is a clear bear flag on the hourly... now stuck against the old broken floor.
--
This remains classic holiday trading conditions (Thursday is closed of course)... and this is no market for anyone trying to capture minor down cycles. To me... seems a complete waste of time.
--
time to shop... back soon.
sp'60min
USO, 60min'2
Summary
*oil bouncing... price structure is a clear bear flag on the hourly... now stuck against the old broken floor.
--
This remains classic holiday trading conditions (Thursday is closed of course)... and this is no market for anyone trying to capture minor down cycles. To me... seems a complete waste of time.
--
time to shop... back soon.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2084. Metals are rebounding, Gold +$15. Oil remains weak, -0.8%... having yesterday failed to hold the recent $53.60 floor.
sp'daily5
Summary
So... a little lower, but like yesterday, there is ZERO reason why this will turn into anything significant. Market is still headed to the sp'2100s...and far beyond.
As ever... 'don't get lost in the minor noise'... and that sure applies to 2015.. as much as it has this year.
-
Notable early strength: GDX +2.0%, reacting to the early metals jump... but that looks unlikely to sustain itself for more than a day or two.
-
Have a good Tuesday!
sp'daily5
Summary
So... a little lower, but like yesterday, there is ZERO reason why this will turn into anything significant. Market is still headed to the sp'2100s...and far beyond.
As ever... 'don't get lost in the minor noise'... and that sure applies to 2015.. as much as it has this year.
-
Notable early strength: GDX +2.0%, reacting to the early metals jump... but that looks unlikely to sustain itself for more than a day or two.
-
Have a good Tuesday!
Oil breaks a new cycle low
Whilst the broader US market remains contentedly climbing into year end, there was notable weakness in the energy market. WTIC Oil broke a new multi-year low of $52.90. The door is now open to the $50 psy' level, after that... $45.
WTIC, weekly, 3yr
WTIC, monthly'2
Summary
Suffice to say, the recent micro double low in the mid $53s was rather decisively taken out today, and bodes for continued downside across much of January. I'm somewhat surprised, although US dollar strength was always going to remain a major hindrance to any near term bounce.
Looking ahead
Tuesday has Case Shiller HPI, and consumer confidence. In the scheme of things though... neither are particularly important enough to significantly move the market, in what is just another quiet holiday trading week.
--
Still time to submit a target
There are still a few days to submit your best guess for end 2015.. see HERE
-
Goodnight from an icy London
WTIC, weekly, 3yr
WTIC, monthly'2
Summary
Suffice to say, the recent micro double low in the mid $53s was rather decisively taken out today, and bodes for continued downside across much of January. I'm somewhat surprised, although US dollar strength was always going to remain a major hindrance to any near term bounce.
Looking ahead
Tuesday has Case Shiller HPI, and consumer confidence. In the scheme of things though... neither are particularly important enough to significantly move the market, in what is just another quiet holiday trading week.
--
Still time to submit a target
There are still a few days to submit your best guess for end 2015.. see HERE
-
Goodnight from an icy London
Daily Wrap
US equities broke another pair of new historic highs, sp'2093, with R2K @ 1220. Near term outlook remains bullish into January. All the bigger trading cycles are offering sp'2130s before the next opportunity of a minor down wave. A break under sp'2k looks unlikely for a very considerable time.
sp'daily5
R2K, daily
Summary
Little to add.
What should be clear.. the breakout in the R2K is an extremely important event, and bodes for broad upside across much... if not all of 2015.
--
Despite the market managing two new index highs, the VIX opened higher, and held moderate gains into the close, settling +5.1% @ 15.24
VIX, daily3
VIX remains relatively subdued, and considering it is a holiday trading week, VIX will probably melt lower later this week. The 12/11s certainly seem viable.
-
a little more later...
sp'daily5
R2K, daily
Summary
Little to add.
What should be clear.. the breakout in the R2K is an extremely important event, and bodes for broad upside across much... if not all of 2015.
--
Despite the market managing two new index highs, the VIX opened higher, and held moderate gains into the close, settling +5.1% @ 15.24
VIX, daily3
VIX remains relatively subdued, and considering it is a holiday trading week, VIX will probably melt lower later this week. The 12/11s certainly seem viable.
-
a little more later...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)