Thursday 26 June 2014

Closing Brief

US indexes closed moderately weak, sp -2pts @ 1957, (intra low 1944). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around 0.2%. Near term outlook continues to offer a further down wave to the sp'1940/35 zone.. before renewed broad upside across the first half of July.



*coming up...the last pair of games in the group stage, I think I'll be cheer leading the South Koreans.

So..a day of a few swings..and certainly, the opening drop did surprise many. Price structure is very similar to yesterday, and I'll be looking for another wave lower tomorrow morning.

A full daily wrap... later at 8pm EST.

time for kick off :)

3pm update - seeking weakness into the close

US indexes look vulnerable to renewed weakness into the close. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4. There is noticeable weakness in Oil, -0.9%. VIX looks set for minor net daily gains, somewhere in the 11.75/12.25 zone.



Hourly MACD cycle is suggestive we're due to see a new up wave begin tomorrow, but I'm somewhat skeptical of that.

As things are, its not a good setup for those wanting to short, aside from those with around 1960.

updates into the close...esp' if we start to roll over.

*TWTR still building gains, +6.1%

3.07pm...minor chop...and its getting kinda tiresome.

3.14pm.. price action much like yesterday... minor upward melt...

oh well, I'll be looking for weakness early tomorrow then...1940/35. difference.

*I'd only drop the bear flag scenario if much above 1961

3.29pm.. 15min cycle...wants to roll over into the close.  Bears need 1952 to confirm.

3.46pm.. price action/structure almost exactly like yesterday... bodes for the bears..tomorrow.

TWTR cooling, +4.8%

2pm update - mini surge into the 1960s?

US equities are trying to claw back to evens.. with the USA moving into the last 16 of the world cup.  A daily close in the sp'1960s still looks difficult, and there remains threat of another down wave late today..or early tomorrow.



So...a little spike higher..but price action still looks kinda weak.

As for the C wave target box.... hmm, still viable....although I realise some might want to call this a 5 wave decline now.. with E into tomorrow.

Anyway....USA are through...they did well.

Notable strength: TWTR, +5.6%

2.24pm.. market looking vulnerable to weakness into the close... downside target remains 1940/35...but right now, that looks more likely tomorrow.

1pm update - baby bear flag

US indexes are naturally trading quietly.. with the second half of USA vs Germany, still ahead. Price structure is offering another bear flag, with downside into the low 1940s later today. Metals are weak, Gold -$3, whilst Oil is lower by a somewhat significant -1.0%.



*bear flag is very clear on the micro 5min cycle.

So...once again, its a case of do we break lower in the late part of today..or instead..early tomorrow.

Hard to call, but the 1960s look well out of range until late Friday at the earliest, if not next week.

Notable strength: TWTR, +4%... and headed for the big $50 by mid July.

stay tuned.

12pm update - its game time

US indexes remain moderately lower, and look set for further declines later this afternoon. However, far more importantly, we have another game.. USA vs Germany. No doubt, many - especially those in market land, are going to be taking a two hour lunch break.



Suffice to say... minor chop..and considering the Tuesday down wave, I'd have to guess we'll see a few more hours of weakness late today..possibly stretching into early Friday.

Regardless, we should renewed upside into the Friday close..when the R2K gets a major rebalancing.

VIX update from Mr T....who needs a new mic'... and the June'25 date is wrong.

time for kick off!

11am update - a little more time

US indexes have seen some moderate declines this morning, taking out the Wed' morning sp'1949 low. Market still looks set for a little further lower, to the 1940/35 zone, a prime time for that remains 2.30pm or so, and that should equate to VIX 13s.



*I'd guess market will be almost semi-closed during the USA/Germany game at 12pm EST.

So..we're lower this morning..the bear flag was confirmed, and based on the Monday down wave, I'd expect today's C wave to last until mid afternoon.

Friday looks set for net least by end of the day anyway.

Notable weakness, RIG, -2.5%

.. but I'd still hold to general upside to the 48/50 zone within a month.

time to shop.... back soon.

11.22am.. minor chop continues, and 1950 is offering resistance.

Long afternoon ahead for the bulls.... I'm still guessing we drift lower...1940/35.. and then... up.

10am update - opening weakness

US indexes are on the slide, and it is highly probable that we are seeing a minor C, 3, or whatever you wanna call it, down wave. Downside target remains the sp'1940/35 zone, which seems very viable this afternoon.



It looked like a bear flag yesterday....

..and with the break lower, it IS indeed a bear flag.

I like being right.... I just hope that train wreck WFM turns around before the July'4 weekend, I'm really somewhat in a real situation with that one. Urghhh

10.35am.. minor chop.

Time wise, I'd have to expect another little wave lower...into the afternoon.

I think its a case of 'lets see where we are at 2.30pm'.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 1958. Precious metals are moderately weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -0.5%. There is high potential for a further minor wave lower to the sp'1940/35 zone by late today/early Friday.



We have the big USA vs Germany game at 12pm EST, and attention will be on that today.

Anyway, lets see if the market can break lower this morning, with weakness to the lower 1940s... we're only talking about a fall of 1% or so.

Video update from Carboni


Good wishes for Thursday trading

9.35am.. It is a bear flag... as I was noting yesterday.

In theory.. we should at least hit the low 1940s today...maybe a brief venture to 1935 or so, with VIX 13s

9.38am.. oh great, stockcharts is having 'issues' again.

9.40am.... bear flag is being provisionally confirmed.... looks like we'll see that 1940/35 zone today.

9.43am.. typically... I'll be looking for a floor around 2.30pm or so.  VIX about to break into the 12s.

Daily Wrap

US indexes are due a further minor wave lower, but it will do nothing to dent the multi-week upward trend. The real question is how high might the market be by mid July?




So... some moderate daily gains for all the main indexes, with borderline sig' gains of 0.9% and 0.8% respectively, for the Trans/R2K. VIX looks set to jump again, but only to the 12.75/13.25 zone... 14 on a spike - if sp'1930s.

Broader trend.. and price action remains bullish... for at least another 3-4 weeks.

Closing update from Riley

Looking ahead

There is the usual jobs data, but also pers' income/outlays.

There are two Fed officials talking during the day, Bullard and Lacker, both of whose comments could be used to knock the market lower.

*next sig' QE is not until at least next Tuesday (next QE schedule is due Mon' Jun'30).

Goodnight from London