VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains low, and the big 20 threshold looks difficult to hit for at least 'some weeks'.
Certainly, I have no interest in picking up a VIX call block in the near term.
--
more later... on the indexes
Tuesday, 3 June 2014
Volatility a little higher
Whilst equities saw minor chop across the day, the VIX managed to hold minor gains, settling +2.5% @ 11.87 - the seventh consecutive daily close in the 11s. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain within the 14/11 zone, the 10s look viable if sp'1940/50s.
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains low, and the big 20 threshold looks difficult to hit for at least 'some weeks'.
Certainly, I have no interest in picking up a VIX call block in the near term.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains low, and the big 20 threshold looks difficult to hit for at least 'some weeks'.
Certainly, I have no interest in picking up a VIX call block in the near term.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US indexes saw minor chop across the day, sp -0.7pts @ 1924. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is somewhat uncertain ahead of the ECB, but with broader underlying upward pressure.
sp'60min
Summary
A very quiet day in market land...tomorrow will most certainly be more dynamic, to be inspired by 'ADP jobs data', and a Fed beige book.
*I remain on the sidelines.
--
more later..on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
A very quiet day in market land...tomorrow will most certainly be more dynamic, to be inspired by 'ADP jobs data', and a Fed beige book.
*I remain on the sidelines.
--
more later..on the VIX
3pm update - melt into the close
The market remains pretty subdued, as it quietly awaits a series of key events/data across the rest of the week. Metals are set to close a touch higher, with the broader trend remaining weak. VIX will likely close in the 11s for the seventh consecutive trading day.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add, on what is a quiet day.
-
*I remain on the sidelines, and have little interest in trying to guess what the ECB will do this Thursday..never mind how the market might react to it.
Right now, I'd only consider an index short if sp'1935/40s, which is just about viable.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add, on what is a quiet day.
-
*I remain on the sidelines, and have little interest in trying to guess what the ECB will do this Thursday..never mind how the market might react to it.
Right now, I'd only consider an index short if sp'1935/40s, which is just about viable.
2pm update - holding pattern
US indexes are largely in a holding pattern, ahead of the Wed' ADP jobs data & Fed beige book, but much more so.. awaiting the Thursday ECB announcement. One way or another, we won't be trading in the sp'1920s for much longer.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add, on what is just another quiet day.
-
Notable strength in AAPL..
...which will be split 7 for 1 at next Mondays open. Most are starting to agree that AAPL is headed for $100..post split...which would be a new historic high
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add, on what is just another quiet day.
-
Notable strength in AAPL..
...which will be split 7 for 1 at next Mondays open. Most are starting to agree that AAPL is headed for $100..post split...which would be a new historic high
1pm update - continued minor chop
US indexes continue to see much the same price action. There remains notable weakness in the R2K, -0.6%. Precious metals are largely flat, with Gold +$1. VIX is holding very minor gains of 3%, but looks set for another daily close in the 11s.
sp'60min
Summary
From a pure cyclical perspective, hourly index charts are prone to upside tomorrow..rather than downside.
Certainly, it remains a case that the equity bears remain effectively powerless..as reflected in a VIX that is barely able to hold the 12s.
-
Notable gains, TWTR+ 1.6%.
sp'60min
Summary
From a pure cyclical perspective, hourly index charts are prone to upside tomorrow..rather than downside.
Certainly, it remains a case that the equity bears remain effectively powerless..as reflected in a VIX that is barely able to hold the 12s.
-
Notable gains, TWTR+ 1.6%.
12pm update - what about the R2K?
Whilst the broader market is seeing minor weak chop, there is once again somewhat significant weakness in the R2K, -0.9%. The recent bull flag has failed, and if the R2K loses the big 1100 threshold, then it would bode badly for the main market.
R2K,daily
Summary
To be clear, I'm certainly not going to get overly excited for the bears unless the R2K loses 1100, and even then, the recent 1080 level is even more critical.
Meanwhile, VIX is still failing to display any sig' upside power, and it will be difficult to get any move much above 14 this week.
-
VIX update from Mr T
-
Notable weakness in ACI and WLT. Have the algo-bots been reading my recent postings?
-
time for tea
R2K,daily
Summary
To be clear, I'm certainly not going to get overly excited for the bears unless the R2K loses 1100, and even then, the recent 1080 level is even more critical.
Meanwhile, VIX is still failing to display any sig' upside power, and it will be difficult to get any move much above 14 this week.
-
VIX update from Mr T
-
Notable weakness in ACI and WLT. Have the algo-bots been reading my recent postings?
-
time for tea
11am update - much like yesterday
Tuesday is turning out to be much like yesterday, minor index chop. Equity bears lack any sig' downside power, with US/world markets generally in a holding pattern until the ECB announcement this Thursday. Metals are seeing similar chop, Gold +$2, whilst the VIX is battling to break and hold the 12s.
sp'60min
Summary
For the market as a whole...nothing much should be expected of today.
Wed' will have the ADP jobs and Fed beige book..so there is a lot more potential there for price movement. Yet even tomorrow..who will want to take a trade ahead of the ECB ?
-
Notable weakness: DRYS, -2% in the $2.90s
--
time for an early lunch...
sp'60min
Summary
For the market as a whole...nothing much should be expected of today.
Wed' will have the ADP jobs and Fed beige book..so there is a lot more potential there for price movement. Yet even tomorrow..who will want to take a trade ahead of the ECB ?
-
Notable weakness: DRYS, -2% in the $2.90s
--
time for an early lunch...
10am update - minor weakness
Equities open lower, but there really isn't much downside power, and the hourly cycles are prone to another wave higher. R2K remains particularly weak, but is holding the Monday low of 1121. VIX is higher, but is highly vulnerable to turning red later today.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*opening black candle on the VIX hourly chart..bodes badly for the equity bears.
--
*factory orders: +0.7%..a little better than expected.
--
With QE this morning - if only $1.5/2.0bn, bears face the usual problems.
All things considered, there is only small chance of downside, and with the weekly charts offering sp'1930/35 in the immediate term..equity bears need to be careful.
-
*I remain content to sit on the sidelines. Call it 'weak' if you want, but I'm trying to wait for a better setup...whether long..or short.
Notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -2.1%
10.26am.. back from the shops...and I see sp'1923....bears can't even manage a minor drop for more than 15/30mins.
VIX on the edge of turning red...and its not even 11am.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*opening black candle on the VIX hourly chart..bodes badly for the equity bears.
--
*factory orders: +0.7%..a little better than expected.
--
With QE this morning - if only $1.5/2.0bn, bears face the usual problems.
All things considered, there is only small chance of downside, and with the weekly charts offering sp'1930/35 in the immediate term..equity bears need to be careful.
-
*I remain content to sit on the sidelines. Call it 'weak' if you want, but I'm trying to wait for a better setup...whether long..or short.
Notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -2.1%
10.26am.. back from the shops...and I see sp'1923....bears can't even manage a minor drop for more than 15/30mins.
VIX on the edge of turning red...and its not even 11am.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 1918. Precious metals are catching a minor bounce, Gold +$3. Market remains vulnerable to a small retracement, primary downside would be the sp'1905/00 gap zone.
sp'daily5
Summary
*awaiting Factory orders data at 10am.
--
So..we're set to open a little lower, but really, I don't think we'll see any significant price action until Thursday - ECB announcement day. Until then..mostly minor chop.
--
Video update from Oscar
Naturally..bullish.
--
9.35am.. black-fail candle on the VIX.... equity bears..beware.
The fact there is sig' QE due at 10am....will make the situation even more difficult.
9.55am.. black candle on the VIX....remains a key problem for the bears.
sp'daily5
Summary
*awaiting Factory orders data at 10am.
--
So..we're set to open a little lower, but really, I don't think we'll see any significant price action until Thursday - ECB announcement day. Until then..mostly minor chop.
--
Video update from Oscar
Naturally..bullish.
--
9.35am.. black-fail candle on the VIX.... equity bears..beware.
The fact there is sig' QE due at 10am....will make the situation even more difficult.
9.55am.. black candle on the VIX....remains a key problem for the bears.
Weekly cycles remain outright bullish
US indexes continue to regularly break new historic highs. There is near term viable upside to sp'1930/35, with 1940/60s more likely at the time of the FOMC of June'18. Core rising support on the giant monthly cycle is now in the sp'1830s.
sp'weekly8
sp'monthly
Summary
So..we now have 8 consecutive green candles on the weekly 'rainbow' chart. Unquestionably....bullish.
Even if equity bears could break low to the 1830s..that would still not break key rising support - the 10MA. That makes for a significant 'safety buffer' of 90pts for the equity bulls.
Looking ahead
Tuesday will see factory orders data at 10am, and that will be kinda important to keep an eye on.
*there is sig' QE-pomo of $1.5-2bn.
--
Trying to be careful
Yours truly remains on the sidelines. I was real tempted to pick up a day-trade on the long side this morning, but as the sp/dow threatened downside into the afternoon.. I held off. Oh well, better to miss out on a trade, than be overly early.
I'd not be particularly comfortable to launch any brief index shorts unless sp'1930/35 this Wed/Thursday. Even then, taking a short trade against the weekly/monthly cycles is pretty risky, especially if holding for more than a day or two.
Goodnight from London
--
Interesting econ-chatter, Martenson, with Jacobsen
I certainly don't agree with some of the theory/outlook, but still..I think its worth a listen..for those that have the time.
--
sp'weekly8
sp'monthly
Summary
So..we now have 8 consecutive green candles on the weekly 'rainbow' chart. Unquestionably....bullish.
Even if equity bears could break low to the 1830s..that would still not break key rising support - the 10MA. That makes for a significant 'safety buffer' of 90pts for the equity bulls.
Looking ahead
Tuesday will see factory orders data at 10am, and that will be kinda important to keep an eye on.
*there is sig' QE-pomo of $1.5-2bn.
--
Trying to be careful
Yours truly remains on the sidelines. I was real tempted to pick up a day-trade on the long side this morning, but as the sp/dow threatened downside into the afternoon.. I held off. Oh well, better to miss out on a trade, than be overly early.
I'd not be particularly comfortable to launch any brief index shorts unless sp'1930/35 this Wed/Thursday. Even then, taking a short trade against the weekly/monthly cycles is pretty risky, especially if holding for more than a day or two.
Goodnight from London
--
Interesting econ-chatter, Martenson, with Jacobsen
I certainly don't agree with some of the theory/outlook, but still..I think its worth a listen..for those that have the time.
--
Daily Index Cycle update
US indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 1924. There were new historic highs for the Trans/Dow/SP. As usual, the most notable weakness was in the R2K/Nasdaq. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish, at least into Wednesday.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
There is little to add.
Even the R2K/Nasdaq remain comfortably above the danger zone. Unless bears can break <1080 in the near term - which seems VERY unlikely, then the broader trend remains bullish.
-
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
There is little to add.
Even the R2K/Nasdaq remain comfortably above the danger zone. Unless bears can break <1080 in the near term - which seems VERY unlikely, then the broader trend remains bullish.
-
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)