VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX looks set to remain broadly subdued into end week/month. The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.
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more later... on the indexes
Tuesday, 27 October 2015
VIX higher for a third day
With equity indexes closing broadly weak, the VIX was naturally continuing to climb, settling +1.3% @ 15.49. Near term outlook is for renewed equity upside, at least to the sp'2080/90s... which will likely equate to VIX cooling to new cycle lows in the 12/11s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX looks set to remain broadly subdued into end week/month. The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX looks set to remain broadly subdued into end week/month. The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed broadly weak, sp -5pts @ 2065. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.6% and -1.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside to the 2080/90s.. not least if the market can cope with a dull FOMC announcement and somewhat mediocre Q3 GDP data.
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting earnings from AAPL and TWTR
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To be clear... I don't see the Friday high of sp'2079 as a short term top.
Another push higher looks due.. and the market will probably try to use the FOMC tomorrow afternoon as an excuse to battle into the sp'2080s.
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more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting earnings from AAPL and TWTR
--
To be clear... I don't see the Friday high of sp'2079 as a short term top.
Another push higher looks due.. and the market will probably try to use the FOMC tomorrow afternoon as an excuse to battle into the sp'2080s.
-
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - weak churn into the close
US equities are set to close moderately weak...having filled the price gap (for most stocks).. around the 200dma of sp'2060. The primary trend remains to the upside, and the sp'2080/90s still look due before any significant opportunity of a reversal.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*AAPL earnings at the close.. and that will give the cheerleaders on clown finance TV something to get excited about.
--
Little to add.
VIX is set for the third consecutive net daily gain, but still, we're only talking about VIX 15s. Even the 20 threshold looks difficult until at least next week.
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Clearly, there is more sig' weakness in energy stocks.. as Oil remains weak, -1.5% in the $42s.
Coal miner stocks utterly trashed.. CNX -21% in the $6s.
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back at the close
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*AAPL earnings at the close.. and that will give the cheerleaders on clown finance TV something to get excited about.
--
Little to add.
VIX is set for the third consecutive net daily gain, but still, we're only talking about VIX 15s. Even the 20 threshold looks difficult until at least next week.
-
Clearly, there is more sig' weakness in energy stocks.. as Oil remains weak, -1.5% in the $42s.
Coal miner stocks utterly trashed.. CNX -21% in the $6s.
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back at the close
2pm update - six red candles
With six consecutive red candles on the hourly cycle.. the market has cooled from sp' 2072 to 2058.. a entire 14pts... 0.7% of pure horror for the equity bull maniacs. The 2080/90s still look highly probable before a key short term top. Oil remains very weak, -2.1% in the $42s.
sp'60min
USO' daily2
Summary
Little to add.
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notable strength: BABA, +3.8%... but...
.. the daily black-fail candle is not so great.. .a fail at the 200dma.. at least provisionally.
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back at 3pm
sp'60min
USO' daily2
Summary
Little to add.
--
notable strength: BABA, +3.8%... but...
.. the daily black-fail candle is not so great.. .a fail at the 200dma.. at least provisionally.
--
back at 3pm
1pm update - energy stocks under pressure
Whilst the broader equity market remains a little weak, there are more significant declines across most energy stocks.... Transocean (RIG) -3.4%, Consol (CNX) -17.6%, Chesapeake (CHK) -8.0%. Oil remains -2.2% in the $42s, and the mid term outlook is now bearish.
RIG,
CNX, daily
CHK, daily
Summary
.. a truly dire trio of charts for the energy sector.. and with energy prices themselves continuing to fall.. the outlook is ugly for the rest of the year.
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However.. a sector does not make the entire market.. and even though the outlook for energy related stocks ain't so great... the broader market looks set to climb.
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back at 2pm
RIG,
CNX, daily
CHK, daily
Summary
.. a truly dire trio of charts for the energy sector.. and with energy prices themselves continuing to fall.. the outlook is ugly for the rest of the year.
-
However.. a sector does not make the entire market.. and even though the outlook for energy related stocks ain't so great... the broader market looks set to climb.
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back at 2pm
12pm update - awaiting renewed upside
US equities remain moderately mixed.. as there is a (not surprising) attempt by some indexes to turn positive. Broadly.. it would seem market is merely consolidating before another push upward to the sp'2080/90s. Oil remains very weak, -1.9% in the $42s.
sp'60min
Summary
Frankly, nothing to add.. on what is another quiet day.
At least there are AAPL earnings at the close, and that might be part of the excuse for renewed upside tomorrow.
--
notable weakness... Ford, although with a reversal candle.. at the 200dma
Sustained action under $14 looks unlikely. Key threshold for a breakout remains $18.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for lunch
sp'60min
Summary
Frankly, nothing to add.. on what is another quiet day.
At least there are AAPL earnings at the close, and that might be part of the excuse for renewed upside tomorrow.
--
notable weakness... Ford, although with a reversal candle.. at the 200dma
Sustained action under $14 looks unlikely. Key threshold for a breakout remains $18.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for lunch
11am update - quiet weakness
US equity indexes remain moderately weak, sp -5pts @ 2065, but it sure is quiet out there. Despite another array of econ-data coming in broadly weak the market is holding together, but then.. bad news is often good news in this twisted market. Oil remains notably weak, -1.6% in the $42s.
sp'60min
USO'weekly2
Summary
*seen on the bigger weekly charts, you can see that with last weeks closing red candle, the bigger cycles are now back to outright bearish.
--
Nothing much to add.
Net daily gains still seem somewhat probable... with a move into the sp'2080/90s, before first real opportunity of a retrace back to around the 2K threshold.
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notable strength (ahead of earnings).. AAPL +0.8% in the $116s.
time to shop.. .back soon.
sp'60min
USO'weekly2
Summary
*seen on the bigger weekly charts, you can see that with last weeks closing red candle, the bigger cycles are now back to outright bearish.
--
Nothing much to add.
Net daily gains still seem somewhat probable... with a move into the sp'2080/90s, before first real opportunity of a retrace back to around the 2K threshold.
-
notable strength (ahead of earnings).. AAPL +0.8% in the $116s.
time to shop.. .back soon.
10am update - opening weakness
US equity indexes are moderately lower, with the sp -5pts @ 2066. A latter day rally seems probable though. Oil is seeing renewed sig' weakness, -2.0% in the $42s.
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
re: Oil. A loss of the $40 threshold later this week/early Nov' would certainly help drag down
energy stocks.. and the broader market.
Unquestionably.. the issue of over supply has not been remotely addressed, and sustained action in the $30s now looks likely into year end.
--
notable weakness...
coal miners, CNX -11% in the $7s
CHK -4%, as Nat' gas prices look headed for $1.50.. or even the ultimate $1.00
F, -5%
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early strength... AAPL, DIS, BABA, TWTR
.. indeed, AAPL earnings at the close will be rather interesting.
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
re: Oil. A loss of the $40 threshold later this week/early Nov' would certainly help drag down
energy stocks.. and the broader market.
Unquestionably.. the issue of over supply has not been remotely addressed, and sustained action in the $30s now looks likely into year end.
--
notable weakness...
coal miners, CNX -11% in the $7s
CHK -4%, as Nat' gas prices look headed for $1.50.. or even the ultimate $1.00
F, -5%
-
early strength... AAPL, DIS, BABA, TWTR
.. indeed, AAPL earnings at the close will be rather interesting.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. US equity futures are a little lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 2068. Broadly, it would seem probable the 2080/90s will be seen before a sig' retrace begins. Energy prices continue to fall, Nat' gas -1.3%, and Oil -0.9%.
sp'daily5
Summary
*awaiting a number of econ-data points.
--
Today will likely see net daily gains.. with a close in the sp'2080s.
Right now, a cycle peak looks due late tomorrow/early Thursday... from there.. downside to around the 2000 threshold.
To be clear though, I do not believe it will be a viable short-side trade... I don't intent to attempt to short it. Default trade currently is long-side.
notable early movers....
BABA +8.3% in the $82s... above the 200dma... very significant.
F -3.2%
AAPL +0.5% in the $115s.. ahead of earnings.
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Overnight Asia action
Japan: -0.9% @ 18777
China: started very weak, -2%... but managed a net gain of 0.1% @ 3434. It increasingly looks like we'll see a monthly close >3400.
--
Have a good Tuesday
-
8.31am.. Durable goods , -1.2%... lousy number.. but hey.. bad news is good news right?
sp -5pts... 2066... a close in the 2080s still looks probable.
sp'daily5
Summary
*awaiting a number of econ-data points.
--
Today will likely see net daily gains.. with a close in the sp'2080s.
Right now, a cycle peak looks due late tomorrow/early Thursday... from there.. downside to around the 2000 threshold.
To be clear though, I do not believe it will be a viable short-side trade... I don't intent to attempt to short it. Default trade currently is long-side.
notable early movers....
BABA +8.3% in the $82s... above the 200dma... very significant.
F -3.2%
AAPL +0.5% in the $115s.. ahead of earnings.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: -0.9% @ 18777
China: started very weak, -2%... but managed a net gain of 0.1% @ 3434. It increasingly looks like we'll see a monthly close >3400.
--
Have a good Tuesday
-
8.31am.. Durable goods , -1.2%... lousy number.. but hey.. bad news is good news right?
sp -5pts... 2066... a close in the 2080s still looks probable.
China attains another close in the 3400s
Whilst US equities closed moderately mixed, there was notable strength in China. The Shanghai comp' settled +0.5%, a relatively small gain, but still, it was another very important close in the 3400s. Next upside is the monthly 10MA.. currently @ 3695.
China, daily
China, monthly
Summary
Suffice to say.. with 4 trading days left of Oct', the China market is set for the first sig' net monthly gain (currently, 12.3%) since April.
An Oct' close above the key 10MA is unlikely, but given a few weeks of minor chop/retrace.. and then further upside, a Nov' close in the 3700s looks very viable.
Looking ahead
As well as further corp' earnings, there is a fair array of econ-data...
Durable goods orders, case-shiller HPI, PMI serv', consumer con', Richmond fed
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Goodnight from London
China, daily
China, monthly
Summary
Suffice to say.. with 4 trading days left of Oct', the China market is set for the first sig' net monthly gain (currently, 12.3%) since April.
An Oct' close above the key 10MA is unlikely, but given a few weeks of minor chop/retrace.. and then further upside, a Nov' close in the 3700s looks very viable.
Looking ahead
As well as further corp' earnings, there is a fair array of econ-data...
Durable goods orders, case-shiller HPI, PMI serv', consumer con', Richmond fed
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts @ 2071 (intra low 2066).
The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.6% respectively. Near
term outlook offers the 2080/90s before a probable retrace. Post
FOMC/GDP downside target is the sp'2000 threshold.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Little to add.
Transports is still threatening a move to the 200dma... along with sp'2080/90s... before first significant opportunity of a turn lower.
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Little to add.
Transports is still threatening a move to the 200dma... along with sp'2080/90s... before first significant opportunity of a turn lower.
--
a little more later...
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