VIX back in melt mode

US equities opened a little higher, and by 10am, the VIX was sporting a classic black-fail hourly candle (intra high 15.98). That was indeed an early warning of broader equity upside, with the VIX settling -2.4% @ 14.68. Near term outlook offers the sp'2085/90 zone, and that likely equates to VIX 13s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add, those black-fail candles in the opening half hour of the day are always important to recognise.

VIX looks set for another day or two lower, before next opportunity of battling into the 16/17s.

Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for another 2-3 weeks.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +20pts @ 2066. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 1.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside to the 2085/90 zone, before renewed weakness to at least the 2010s - where the 200dma is lurking. An eventual break <2039 remains due.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a new intra high of 2071... leaning weak into the close, but nothing remotely significantly.
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Well.. overnight saw moderate weakness, but for now, 2043/39 zone remains strong support.

Broader price action remains very choppy.. stuck in the same old 2100/40 zone.

Best guess.. regardless of any move to 2085/90 zone... a break under 2039 looks infinitely more viable than a break into the 2100s.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - market sharks

US equities continue to battle upward, with the sp' breaking into the 2070s. As things are, further strength to the 2085/90 zone is viable... but that would arguably complete what is a big bear flag that stretches back to the May 6th low of 2039.


sp60min

Summary

Little to add.

2111 >2039
2039>2085/90.. with a viable next decline to the 200dma in the 2010s.

In any case, the bigger issue is that the 2100s are out of range.

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notable strength, AAPL, daily

Based on the current candle... the $97s look due, with a ceiling of 100/103. Broadly, the stock remains broken.
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As for the sharks..

If you're already a little tired of what remains a shark infested market, instead of the cheerleaders on clown finance TV, watch the following in this closing hour...



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back at the close

2pm update - as good as it gets

US equities are holding broad gains, with the sp'500 +18pts (0.9%) at 2064. With the earlier break above resistance there is clear threat of yet another push to the 2085/90 zone. A break into the 2100s looks out of range. VIX is naturally subdued, -2% in the mid 14s


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So.. as things are.. most bullish case is another 25pts or so higher.

Most bearish case remains 2000/1990s. Sustained/significant downside still looks to be no earlier than last week of May.

notable strength: AAPL +3.8% in the $93.90s... next resistance are the $97s.

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Here in London city...

Straight up

Goldilocks weather... not too hot.. not too cold

About as good as it gets.
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 stay tuned

1pm update - mainstream confidence

US equities are holding broad gains, as the mainstream remain very confident that the market will not be breaking the Jan/Feb' lows at any point this year. USD remains a little weak, -0.1% in the DXY 94.40s. Metals are leaning higher, Gold +$2, with Silver +0.4%. Oil is powerfully higher by 3.1% in the $47s.


sp'weekly6

Summary

*a notable fourth blue candle on the weekly chart... but yes.. a long week ahead.
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Clown finance TV had a guest from Bank of America touting a year end target of 2K.

Broadly speaking, we still have a mainstream that has zero concern of a possible break under sp'1810. Indeed, its pretty amusing how they get a little twitchy at the thought of a mere 5-10% retrace this summer.

re: the 4 shorts....   the debt market is certainly warning of a problem. Buy backs continue of course.. and that will help to negate some of the sell side.

Oil is trading bizarrely strong... a sustained move >$50 still looks out of range.

.. and as for fed tightening.. err.. no.    The Fed balance sheet ain't being run down.. and another rate increase is off the menu until at least Q4.

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time for some sun...

12pm update - above resistance

US equities break above short term resistance, with a daily close in the 2065/70 zone now viable. Oil is certainly helping the broader market mood, currently +3.0% in the $47s. Metals are leaning higher... Gold +$1, with Silver +0.4%... with the related mining stocks naturally following, the ETF of GDX +1.9%.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

In wave counting land.. I'd accept that a break above last week's high of 2084 is briefly viable.... as part of some larger ABC /wave'2.

Best case for the bull maniacs is a move to 2085/90 for the opex close. In any case, a break into the 2100s looks out of range.

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notable strength... AAPL, daily

... as some of the bull maniacs are once again hoping for much higher levels into the $130s later this year. There is huge resistance from the $97s to the 103s.

For those who believe the market will break significantly lower this summer, AAPL is an obvious short target.. not least as it has built a series of lower highs.. and lower lows.
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time for lunch

11am update - approaching first resistance

US equities remain moderately higher, with the sp' close to first resistance of 2060. Equity bears need a daily close <2053 to maintain the downward trend from last Tuesday's high. Front month VIX is trading u/c in the low 15s. Metals are back to broadly u/c, after someone hit the big sell button in paper land.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Well, its 11am, a typical turn time... so if we're going to close net lower today... we need to max out around current levels.

It ain't so pretty right now in bear land... but then.. neither do the bull maniacs look as though they have any hope of the 2100s.

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notable weakness... AMZN, daily

Whilst the main market is moderately higher, one of the few surviving momo stocks - AMZN, is sig' lower for a second day. Things start to get amusing on a move back under the $700 threshold.. which looks imminent.
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time to cook
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11.08am.. Well, resistance broken... next level 2070.

10am update - opening minor gains

US equities start the week on a positive note, but the gains are only minor, and there will be high threat of a fourth consecutive net daily decline. VIX is not offering the volatility bulls anything to be pleased about, with an opening black-fail candle. Metals are notably strong, Gold +$12, with Silver +1.4%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*gains in Oil of around 3% into the $47s are no doubt helping.
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Near term resistance is around sp'2060... if that fails to hold, then 2070, before next opportunity to push under 2039.

In any case.. who the hell wants to be buying here? Seriously, the only decent buy signal right now would be a break >sp'2134.. with Dow >18351.

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notable strength, AAPL, daily

...  as chatter about Buffett holding almost ten million shares (via Berkshire Hath') help inspire some buyers. Broadly though.. .the $70s look a valid target for mid/late July.. when Q2 earnings will appear.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2050. USD is fractionally lower, -0.1% in the DXY 94.50s. Metals continue to climb, Gold +$9, with Silver +1.1%. Oil is +2.0% in the $47s.


sp'60min

Summary

So.... 3 weeks down... but broadly, we're still yet to see any significant/sustained downside action, and that is entirely reflected in a VIX that is stuck in the mid/low teens.

Despite a likely higher open, a break <2039 looks due this week, and that will offer 2000/1990s, although that does seem more viable next week, not least once the next OPEX is out of the way.

Even then.... another bounce back to current levels then seems due, before things start to get interesting in late May/early June.

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early movers..

AAPL +1.5% in the $92s.... but the damage is done. With the recent loss of the $90 threshold, the 70s remain a valid target for this summer.

GDX +1.6% in the $25s.. as the metals remain broadly strong

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Overnight action

Japan: choppy, settling +0.4% @ 16466
China: climbing into the close, +0.8% @ 2850
Germany: CLOSED
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Have a good Monday
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8.33am  Empire state manu' :  -9   vs exp' +7.   a truly lousy number to start the week... supports the overall notion of underlying weak growth.

sp +2pts @ 2048.