Thursday 31 October 2019

October settles

US equity indexes concluded October on a weak note, sp -9pts (0.3%) at 3037. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow -0.5%. The Transports settled -1.3%.




The US President made an appearance just six minutes before the market open...

... which was enough to pull equity futures back to broadly flat by the open. However, at 9.45am the Chicago PMI printed 43.2, a deeply recessionary print, with equities turning broadly lower. Seeing equities begin to spiral, Trump resumed...

Lets get this clear, Trump is calling for US rates to be lower than Germany, with the ECB rate currently at -0.5%. Regardless, he has his scapegoat chosen... if the US economy turns ugly into/across 2020.


Whilst I can accept that impeachment chatter is spooking the market,Trump's morning tweets all reeked of an attempt to improve market sentiment, a mere day after the SPX printed a new historic high of 3050.

The afternoon saw a great deal of chop, ending the day and month on a somewhat weak note at 3037.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +7.2% at 13.22. S/t outlook offers increasing equity weakness, with minimum target of sp'2911, which should equate to VIX near the key 20 threshold.

Departing the capital of geo-political chaos

Halloween sunset

The crescent moon with Jupiter
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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