With equities breaking into the sp'2120s, the VIX was crushed lower (intra low 12.54), but settling -9.0% @ 13.19. Near term outlook is uncertain, with threat of another minor wave higher to sp'2135/40... or if the Greeks upset the market cart.. then a break <2072... probably equating to VIX 16/17s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Not surprisingly, the VIX has fallen to the price gap zone (see 60min cycle), but kept on going to the mid 12s.
Considering the ongoing.. and building Greek situation, VIX 13s is clearly a gross mis-pricing.
A move to VIX 16/17s looks viable in the immediate term, although 20s look difficult until a Greek default occurs.
US equities closed broadly higher, sp +20pts @ 2121 (intra high 2126). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. Near term outlook remains uncertain, with the threat of a move to 2135/40... or weakness to break the double floor of 2072. Certainly.. the 'Greek situation' will be a key determinate.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour was mostly minor chop... notably unable to break above the earlier high of sp'2126.
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A day for the equity bulls, but on what I believe was naturally light trading vol'. More likely a case of bears short-stopped from 2100 to 2120s than anything.
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*I hold short INTC overnight.. and would be content to hold across the weekend. Regardless of the Greeks, price structure is what it is.. and I see a bear flag within a H/S formation.
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US equities are set for net daily gains, with the sp'500 +21pts @ 2122. The VIX is offering a near term floor of 12.54.. having already rebounded to 13.12. Metals are holding sig' gains, Gold +$14.
sp'60min
Summary
*with price action as it is... am increasingly tempted to short the market via INTC.
Am waiting for the micro 5min cycle to max out.. then its time to start hitting buttons I think
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stay tuned.. into the close...
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2.54pm.. standing by... $32.45....
2.59pm.. I am SHORT INTC from 32.44 (with sp'2122) will be more than content to hold into next week.
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3.07pm. The hourly cycle will be offering a bearish MACD cross by late tomorrow.... a case of 'rats selling into the weekend' could be rather entertaining... and profitable.
3.13pm... sp'2121. Equity bears should be battling for a daily close <2118... its not exactly expecting too much, considering the Greek uncertainty.
3.37pm.. chop chop... still under the earlier high of 2126.
US equities are holding sig' gains of around 1% for most indexes.. just a touch under the early high of sp'2126.. with VIX 12.54. USD remains in cooling mode, but above the early morning lows, -0.2% in the DXY 94.10s. Metals remain strong, Gold +$14.
sp'60min
INTC, daily
Summary
*I've still eyes on INTC.. its cooled a little from the 50dma of $32.50s... set for a fourth day higher. Price structure on the daily cycle is a clear bear flag.. within a H/S formation, offering downside to the low $29s.
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Little to add...
Market looks set for the third net daily gain. Tomorrow is a quad-opex... ahead of the first weekend when the Greeks might just call it quits.
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Whilst the main market is holding significant gains, sp +23pts @ 2123, Intel (INTC) is at multiple resistance at $32.50. A failure to break any higher in the coming day or two could be an indirect warning of renewed trouble for the broader market... not least with the ongoing 'Greek situation'.
sp'60min
INTC, 60min
Summary
*INTC is currently a tempting short, not least as its holding within a bear flag (better seen on daily cycles).. with broader formation a H/S. For now.. I remain a twitchy watcher... as the market gains today are far stronger than most expected.
I'd feel far more comfortable if the daily equity MACD cycles were levelling out.. rather than turning positive.
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Well, 3hrs left of the day... bulls just need to churn the market sideways.... to keep the door open to 2135/40 zone... before next realistic chance of renewed downside.
Whilst the sp'500 is +20pts @ 2121, there are far more notable gains in the R2K and Nasdaq comp', both of which have broken new historic highs. USD remains in cooling mode, -0.5% in the DXY 93.80s. Metals are holding strong gains, Gold +$12. Oil +0.5%, holding the $60 threshold.
Nasdaq comp', monthly'2
R2K, monthly
Summary
*The last of the main indexes has finally broken a new historic high... and it only took 15 years of waiting.
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With some of the indexes breaking new highs, the equity bears are facing major problems. Daily/weekly charts are offering further upside (if moderate) to the 2135/40 zone.
Considering that Greece remains on the edge of a default, and eventual Euro exit, today's gains could justifiably be deemed as just plain crazy.
notable strength: INTC +1.3%.. approaching multiple resistance around $32.50. I'm keeping an eye on it, but the main indexes are certainly not offering a choppy top... yet.
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US equities are slowly building gains, with the sp'500 pulling away from the 50dma (2105)... next resistance is the 2134/40 zone. VIX is naturally being crushed, -9% in the low 13s. USD remains cooling, -0.4% in the DXY 93.80s.. which is helping the metals, Gold +$14, Silver +1.2%.
sp'daily5
VIX'60min
Summary
*it remains the case.. there is a lot going on this morning.. a fair number of the bigger chess pieces are starting to approach their next key setup.
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Daily MACD cycles are offering further upside into next week, and with a new historic high in the R2K... the Nasdaq comp' looks set to follow... perhaps as early as this afternoon.
VIX is clearly now already very low... in lower gap zone.
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meanwhile.. in hysteria land.. FIT has already started to turn bearish with a spiky black-fail candle..having lost the $30 threshold.
Anyone watching the earlier trade by trade action could see huge attempts to hold the $30 threshold (stock underwriter?).. but no.... the selling has already begun.
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11.39am.. Nasdaq comp' breaks the March'2000 tech bubble high of 5132.
US equities open moderate higher, with the sp' hitting 2113. The USD remains in cooling mode, -0.6% @ DXY 93.70s. Metals are naturally pressured upward, Gold +$14, back above the $1200 threshold. Meanwhile, fitbit (FIT) is set to be listed at the NYSE... the hysteria resumes.
sp'daily5
UUP, daily2
Summary
*there is a great deal going on this morning.. hard to decide what to highlight.
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USD is now within 1% of target zone of DXY 92/90... and metals are similarly pretty close to maxing out before the next wave of horror.. which if correct.. will bode badly for the related miners.
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Meanwhile of course.. the NYSE is focused on the latest IPO hysteria stock... FIT
I would not be surprised to see it close with a spiky black-fail candle... which is usually a major warning of trouble for subsequent weeks/months.
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notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -1.7%... as energy prices are moderately mixed. Once the USD floors and starts rising.. things will likely get real tough for most energy stocks.
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10.21am.. New historic high of 1280 for the second market leader - R2K.
10.26am.. VIX crushed in the low 13s.. approaching target zone. Hmm
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2104. The USD remains in cooling mode, -0.6% @ DXY 93.70s, the 92/90 zone remains on track. Metals are naturally being pressured upward, Gold +$9, with Silver +0.7%
sp'60min
Gold, with USD, daily'2
Summary
*some of the Gold bugs will be getting overly excited at yet another attempt to break the $1200 threshold. Yet it should be clear to at least some of them, that until Gold can break and hold above $1230, Gold remains broadly subdued.
Considering the weakness in the USD, the metals are performing particularly badly. The $1000 threshold remains a natural downside target.. if DXY >101s
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As for equities, the bull maniacs really need a daily close >sp'2105... where there are multiple aspects of resistance.
*I will have eyes on INTC... I'd feel a lot more comfortable though shorting it from $32.25/50 zone... until then... I'm largely content to watch.
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Something rather fun I noticed earlier...
ps. watch it ALL... for a closing Bieber bonus.
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Overnight action: China, -3.7% @ 4785... the day to day swings continue... and are increasingly indicative that a mid term top is being built. A full retrace to the 3400s would really shock the retail amateurs.. and it remains a very viable outcome later this summer.
Have a good Thursday
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8.31am.. CPI +0.4% m/m, 1.7% y/y.
jobs.. 267k... but few seem to care about that data point these days.
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With the Fed (not surprisingly) refraining from raising rates, the USD resumed lower, settling -0.8% @ DXY 94.49. The secondary target zone of 92/90 remains on track.. within the next few weeks. From there, King Dollar looks set to begin a hyper ramp to the 120s.
USD, daily2
USD, monthly3
Summary
Little to add.
The USD continues to cool, a mid term floor looks due within the next few weeks. It will be especially entertaining to see how the precious metals and Oil react once DXY 101s.
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**Bonus chart...
Greece, monthly
A clear break of lower rising support, with the Athex -17% so far this month.... truly dire. It would appear the 2012 low of 471 is going to be tested. That is another 210pts lower, a rather severe 31%
How low could the Athex fall with a default and eventual reversion to the Drachma? Very hard to say.... but what is clear... the near, mid, and long term trends remain nightmarishly bearish. The Greek market has lost 91% of its value since the May 2000 high of 7419.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, CPI, current acc', phil' fed, and leading indicators. That will be plenty to give the market an excuse for some early morning price action!
US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +4pts @ 2100 (intra low
2088). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.1%
respectively. Near term outlook remains uncertain, whilst Greece remains
on the edge of a weekend default.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
*R2K came very close to breaking a new historic high today (1278)...
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Little to add.
With the latest FOMC out of the way, the market will have naturally less concern... but there remains the moderately important 'Greek situation' that looks set to reach breaking point this summer.
As things are.. even if the equity bears can take out the recent double low of 2072... there are a great many aspects of support in the 2050s.
