With US equities settling moderately higher, the VIX was back in cooling mode, settling -7.1% @ 24.37 (intra high 27.22). Near term outlook is for continued equity upside into FOMC week, with the threat of VIX in the 17/15s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains in broad cooling mode from the hyper spike of the 53s. Sub 20s look due in the latter half of next week.
In Oct', I am seeking renewed equity downside.. at least back into the sp'1800s.. and that should see VIX in the 40s... if not even higher.
US equities closed moderately higher, sp +10pts at 1952 (intra range 1937/65). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside into the sp'2000s, the 2050/70 zone remains viable on a brief FOMC hyper-spike.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour: some distinct weakness, but with the micro 5min cycle putting in a clear floor.. it bodes for opening gains tomorrow.
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Little to add.
Clearly, despite some early weakness, the market was able to battle upward, and the sp'2000s remain on track next week.
Yesterday afternoon was a clear train wreck for the bull maniacs, but today has seen a clear resumption of the underlying upside from the double floor of sp'1867. There remain soft targets of 1988, 1993, but of course.. the key sp'2000 threshold. By next Thursday afternoon... we could be maxing out a giant bear flag.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Not much to add.
Market should hold the gains into the close, and that will help turn the weekly candles more bullish... keeping open the door to the sp'2000s next week.
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*I remain long DIS and USO, both positions are now in the green, seeking higher exit levels, will hold overnight.
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US equities are showing some upside power, with a break into the sp'1960s. Next target is the Tues' high of 1988, and more importantly... the 1993 high. After that.. 2000/2010 zone. Whether the market can spike to 2050/70 on the FOMC... difficult to say.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Market is back to 'grind the bears into the FOMC' mode.
I can't be short this. .. and indeed, I remain long DIS and USO... will hold overnight.
Equities remains somewhat choppy, but clearly, there is underlying upward pressure. A daily close in the sp'1955/65 zone now looks probable, along with VIX cooling to the 24s. Oil is battling to hold sig' gains, +2.6% in the $45s... with further upside to the $50 threshold into next week.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I did mention it after the open, but we did see an opening black-fail candle on the VIX. Renewed downside looks due.
I STRONGLY recommend the VIX update from Mr T. see 12pm update.
That was one hell of a large trade.. with someone closing out VIX upside protection into Sept' opex.
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US equities are holding moderate gains of 0.4% at sp'1950. A net daily gain looks probable, with the sp' still on track to battle upward to the psy' level of 2000 in FOMC week. Oil saw a net inventory build of 2.6 million barrels, but Oil is climbing regardless, higher by around 3%, trying to break into the $46s.
sp'60min
USO'60min
Summary
..back from the park :)
Greens and blues
Bullish shadow
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So, equities are a little higher.. holding above key rising trend (1940 at the Friday close)... VIX is a touch red, and Oil is on the rise.
If we close better than here.. that will be a good setup for tomorrow.. and into next wek.
The latest EIA oil report is due at 11am. Last week the inventories increased by around 5 million barrels... yet Oil held up relatively well. From a pure price structure perspective, Oil is set to break higher across today and into the weekend. First target for WTIC is the $50 threshold, with USO back to $16 or so.
USO'60min
sp'60min
Summary
*I am long oil via USO, I'd consider an exit in the 15.20s or higher later today. A daily close >15.30 or so would clarify that 16s are due.. whether tomorrow.. or early next week.
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...so... I await the inventories.. or actually not.
Its sunny in the city, the warmest part of the day.. I want to catch some sunshine, and I'll be back in an hour.
US equities open a touch weak, but have already turned moderately positive, with the sp' battling for the 1950s. Indeed, a weekly close >1950 is arguably essential to keeping open the sp'2000s in FOMC week. Oil is seeing minor chop in the $44s, ahead of the latest EIA oil report.
sp'60min
AAPL, 60min
Summary
*someone seems to have found AAPL in the $109s all too tempting in early trading, and AAPL has snapped strongly higher into the 111s.
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So.. an open where everyone is getting a chance to reposition.
There can be no excuses today. Considering the daily MACD cycles.. we're still on track to push higher.
yours... in the trenches, wearing a flak jacket.
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10.16am.. notable strength in the Transports
daily
The 8300s look viable.. which would be suggestive of sp'2000s
Good morning. Equity futures are moderately higher, sp +9pts, we're set to open around 1951. With the USD +0.1% in the DXY 96.10s, Oil is +1.2%, ahead of the EIA report. Metals are broadly flat.
sp'60min
sp'weekly2
Summary
*it will be kinda important for the bull maniacs to turn the weekly candle back to blue.. as it was earlier yesterday.
Frankly, I really want to see a weekly close at least in the sp'1950s.. anything under that would be a problem.
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Equity futures were initially weak overnight, equiv' to -10pts @ 1930... very close to rising trend... from last weeks low of 1911.
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Overnight Asia action...
Japan: -2.1% @ 18299... opening weak, with a slight recovery into the close. Considering the previous days hyper gains of 7.7%... it was an understandable retrace day.
China: -1.4% @ 3197. A broadly weak day.. and the PBOC seemed absent. On the positive side, the Shanghai comp' managed another daily close above the 3K threshold. Upside target remains the 3500/600s.... before resuming lower.
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Have a good Thursday
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7.35am sp +4pts @ 1946. Not exactly inspiring, but we've a long day ahead.
DIS +0.4% in the $102.30s. A daily close in the 103s would be something.
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8.42am.. sp -10pts... 1932... and this is starting to become a problem.
Any sustained trading <1925 will break soft rising support.... opening up last weeks 1911 low.
Best guess... we go up.. but once again.. it is a borderline situation.
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9.16am.. sp -4pts.. 1938...
*Tepper was a good guest on CNBC just earlier.. seems he would be a heavy buyer in the 1700s.
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9.39am.. minor weak chop.... core rising support is at 1925.
All things considered, we should be battling upward... no later than 11am.
9.47am.. black-fail candle on the VIX.... equity bears beware!
Whilst the US equity market closed significantly lower, there was also notable weakness in WTIC Oil, which settled -3.5% in the $44s. However, price structure remains a clear bull flag, and offers a return to the $50 threshold in FOMC week.
*I will use USO to highlight Oil.. as that is how I usually trade Oil. Yes, I'm well aware of the long term decay problems inherent in USO, and any consideration of nominal prices further back than six months is not a good idea.
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USO, daily
USO, weekly2
Summary
Price structure on the daily chart is a bull flag, with an initial target that would equate to WTIC back around the $50 threshold.
There is a clear price gap in USO in the $18s.. equating to WTIC $55 or so.. but that will not be easy... unless the USD can cool to the low DXY 90s.
re: weekly chart: despite the Wed' net daily decline, the weekly candle remains blue, and with 3 blue candles, there is the obvious threat of renewed upside into next week.
*the EIA oil report is due Thursday at 11am, and will no doubt have a major effect on how Oil trades for the rest of the week. Oil bulls really need to see a net draw down of at least 1-2 million barrels.
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Update from Mr C.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the weekly jobs, import/export prices, wholesale trade, and the latest EIA oil report.
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Two holes dug
Today was not the easiest of days, although there was at least some sunshine in the afternoon, and for a few hours it was warm.
As I noted at the start of the day, I was not particularly in the mood to hit any buttons, but with Oil cooling in early morning, I decided to pick that up. Naturally, it then slowly melted into the afternoon.
Then there was Disney, which saw an early high of $104.99, and then cooled into the $102s in the afternoon. I picked up DIS, but that stock then fell another dollar into the close.
So, I've managed to dig two moderately sized trading holes for myself, and now I'm wondering if I'll be holding one or both positions across the weekend. Its not a great thought, but I think at least my entry levels are reasonable.
*thanks for the emails/messages today... I do appreciate it, especially from some of you new people!
US equity indexes closed significantly weak, sp -27pts @ 1942 (intra
high 1988). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.7% and
-1.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside... at least
to the sp'2000/2010 zone.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
Little to add.
Despite sig' net daily declines - with a powerful 2.5% reversal from sp'1988 to 1937, the near term outlook into FOMC week remains bullish.
Trend support will be around sp'1925 at the Thursday open. By the Friday close.. the market needs to be trading above 1940.
First key downside target for the doomer bears is the Friday low of 1911. Unless that is taken out.. and closed under, it remains a series of higher lows.
