VIX crushed lower

With equities building significant gains across the day, the VIX was ground lower, settling -7.0% @ 13.45 (intra low 12.96). Near term outlook is for further equity upside to the 2150/70s into early July, which should equate to the VIX remaining very subdued in the 14/11 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

With an apparent cycle floor of sp'2072, the equity bears could only manage a VIX in the mid 15s... it is frankly... lame, and highly indicative of the continuing underlying strength in the US (and most world) equity markets.

The big VIX 20 threshold looks out of range until mid/late July. At best.. if a sig' equity correction in the late summer, perhaps we'll see VIX 25/35s, but such levels will not be sustained for long.

For the moment, there seems zero point in being long VIX, whether option calls, VXX, or the decay prone TVIX/UVXY.

--
more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +25pts @ 2105 (intra high 2108). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook has turned bullish, with a cycle low of 2072. Further upside into the FOMC of June 17th look due.. if not somewhat beyond to the 2150/70s.


sp'60min

Summary

*a choppy closing hour, but nothing for the bulls to be concerned about.
--

A decisive break above resistance.

Regardless of any minor weakness tomorrow morning (if any)... its a pretty clear change of trend. sp'2072 is likely a key short term floor.. and now we're seemingly headed higher into next weeks FOMC.

---
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a day for the bull maniacs

US equity indexes are set to close with very significant gains, with the sp'500 comfortably over the key 2100 threshold. VIX is confirming the utter market complacency, -8% @ 13.20s. Gold is set for a third consecutive net daily gain, +$10. Oil is +2.3%


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add.

We have a decisive break above resistance, along with a viable spike floor of sp'2072 - a 62pt (3.1%) decline from the recent high.

The sp'2120s appear well within range before the weekend. New historic highs in 'some' indexes looks probable before the market maxes out this summer.
-

notable weakness, Sears (SHLD) -18% in the $29s... as the market is increasingly upset at the 'REIT' issue.
--

back at the close.. to wrap up the day

2pm update - USD remains in cooling mode

Whilst the sp'500 is battling to hold above the 10/50dmas.. and the 2100 threshold, there is notable weakness in the USD, -0.5% in the DXY 94.60s. Broader downside to the 92/90 zone looks due into July, before a hyper ramp into the 120s. The implications for metals/oil should be pretty clear.


UUP, daily2

GLD, daily

Summary

*Gold seeing the third consecutive net daily gain.. although today's black-fail candle is not exactly super bullish. A move to the 116/117s looks viable.. if DXY 92/90. From there.. it will be time for another GLD short.
--

We've the retail sales data tomorrow.. and if Mr Market likes that, we'll be trading in the 2120s before most realise it.

notable strength: NFLX +4.6%.. although cooling from the earlier highs.

1pm update - holding the gains

US equities are holding significant gains, with the sp' +26pts @ 2106. The daily cycle is offering new historic highs in the 2140s, clearly though.. the Transports won't be breaking any new highs for a long while. USD remains in cooling mode, -0.4% @ DXY 94.70s. Gold +$10. Oil +1.8%.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Not much to add. Unlike last Wednesday, today's breakout looks far more sustainable.

A daily close above sp'2100 would give clarity of further upside into next week. After all, everything in Greece is again 'fine'.. right?

--
notable strength: INTC +2.0% @ $31.90s. Unless the $35 threshold is broken and held over...the broader price structure remains very bearish for the late summer.

weakness: TSLA -1.9%... even the momo chasers aren't interested in that one.

12pm update - more Greek nonsense

The latest Greek news (or rumour) has seen a decisive break above the sp'2100 threshold.. along with a move above the 10 and 50dmas. VIX is confirming the move, -6% in the mid 13s. USD remains in cooling mode, -0.4% in the DXY 94.70s. Metals and Oil are broadly holding sig' gains.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A major fail for the equity bears... but then.. sporadic Greek news/rumours remain a constant threat.

Daily/weekly equity cycles are starting to turn... and there looks to be viable upside into next weeks FOMC. With rates unlikely to be raised until the Sept FOMC, the market could battle upward into early July... at which point the USD should be flooring.

notable strength: oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both higher by around 2.3%.. as Oil +1.2%

--
VIX update from Mr T.  

*seemingly taking a day off*

-
time for lunch :)

11am update - battling for 2100

US equities are building borderline significant gains, with the sp'500 making a play to break/hold the 2100 threshold. With the USD cooling, -0.4% @ DXY 94.80s, the metals/oil are seeing some natural sig' gains, which look set to build into next week.


sp'daily5

Summary

*VIX is reflecting the renewed market confidence, -5% in the mid 13s, and that is of course somewhat bizarre considering the unresolved Greek situation.
--

Well, its not looking good for those in equity bear land.

We have a clear break of the recent down wave from last Wednesday. Now its merely a case of attaining a daily close >2100... which does appear likely.

--
notable hyper-strength, NFLX +6%, as the momo chasers are out in force...

A great many price gaps, once the main market maxes out, it will be highly vulnerable to a brief.. but very sharp down wave. Long term though... it looks super strong. No doubt, a stock split will attract even more speculative interest... as was the case with AAPL.


11.21am.. clear upside break... short-stop cascade well underway.

A daily close in the 2100s looks probable..  which opens the door wide to upside into the FOMC... and somewhat beyond.

Eyes on the USD, -0.6%..... on track for the DXY 92/90 zone.. before a hyper-wave to 120s.

10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, with the sp'500 making a serious attempt to retake the 2100 threshold, where there are multiple aspects of resistance. USD continues to cool, -0.6% in the DXY 94.60s. Metals are naturally climbing, Gold +$11, with Silver +0.6%. Oil is +2.6% in the $61s.


sp'daily5

UUP, daily2

Summary

*I remain more focused on the USD than anything else. Once the current down wave floors (probably a few weeks away)..  the metals/oil.. and perhaps equities will all have maxed out for the summer.... from there.. things get real interesting.
--

So.. opening gains, and now its case of whether we get a daily close in the 2100s.. although it doesn't necessarily have to happen today.

notable strength: +3.9% @ $671.... I would guess the PE is somewhere around 300 now.

oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both higher by around 3%... if Oil can break/hold $62... energy stocks will get a particularly strong kick higher.
-
weakness:  TSLA -2.2%... as some traders again start to wonder if the company will ever make money.
-

10.32am.. Equities holding gains....

Oil inventories -6.8 million barrels... inline with the API report.

Oil holding the $61s... set for 63s.. and then 65/67.. where they are multiple aspects of resistance.
-

Momo chasers are out in force today.. NFLX +5.8%  @ 684.... as the stock is due a split... which will bring even more chasers in.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +9pts, we're set to open at 2089. USD remains in cooling mode, -0.2% @ DXY 94.90s. Metals are naturally climbing, Gold +$9. Oil is +2.7% in the $61s, after API data suggest tightening demand/supply.


sp'60min

Summary

Now its a case of whether the market can attain a daily close >sp'2100. That doesn't have to occur today, but it MUST happen in the current up wave, or the failure would mean we're headed back lower... at least to the rising 200dma (2046).

Not surprisingly, with the USD cooling - headed for DXY 92/90 zone, most $ denominated asset classes are seeing some upward pressure.

To me, the easy trade will be to go short - whether Gold, Oil, or (gods willing) the equity indexes, once the USD floors... but that is probably some weeks away. For now... I'm content to watch.

--
Update from an unusually quiet Oscar



--
Doomer chat, Hunter with the infamous Mannarino



I think its a case of Mr M' getting overly excited at the recent weakness. Calling a grand top is a bold call, and I think he is grossly wrong. What about the QE, buybacks, or low rates? What does Mannerino think people should do in the coming months/years.... start buying bonds... for a low/negative rate? Crazy.
-

Have a good Wednesday

The significant correction

Even the mainstream are starting to come around to the notion that the US (if not most world equity markets) are increasingly due a significant correction of around 8-12% this summer/early autumn. Whether the market uses the excuse of Greece, deflationary concerns, or even higher rates.. is not important. What is important is that a washout somewhere under sp'2K in late summer looks due

Dow' weekly'4

Summary

First things first...

I am VERY open to the notion of another wave higher to around Dow 18400/600 zone into July.. possibly even dragging out into August - hence the fib' level on the chart!

Regardless of however strong the next wave is across the next month or so, I will be looking for the Dow to break rising trend (which as of end July will be around 17500).

Best guess is for a washout in the late summer to the 16500/000 zone.

I do NOT expect sustained price action <16K under any scenario this year.. even if Greece default on their foreign debt (not domestic!) and revert to the Drachma.

With continued QE from the ECB, BoJ (the list could go on), corporate share buybacks (need I remind some about GE into 2017?), and low interest rates, I do not believe a grand multi-year top is due for another two years.
-


Looking ahead

Wed' will be pretty quiet, there is only the EIA oil report, and the US treasury budget. These days though, few care about the latter.
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp +0.9pts @ 2080 (intra low 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.3%. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the 200dma (2046 and rising), but that will not be easy as the USD remains in a cooling phase.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

So, a bit of a mixed day in market land. A fair few indexes settled lower for the fourth consecutive day... lead by the Trans/R2K.

Overall... price action remains not particularly bearish.. not least whilst the broader upward trends (for most indexes.. certainly not all) remain intact.

Right now, best case for the equity bears is a test of the 200dma (sp'2046.. and rising)... before the next attempt to break new highs.. after the next FOMC (June 17th).
--

Closing update from Riley


--
a little more later...