With equities breaking new cycle highs of sp'2106, the VIX was naturally back in cooling mode, settling -6.1% @ 14.15 (intra low 13.67). Near term outlook remains of an equity retrace being due.. but for now... there is no definitive sign of a short term market top.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Equities opened higher.. but so did the VIX.. breaking an early high of 15.51.
However, the opening black-fail hourly candle in the VIX was the tell.. and that did indeed mark the top of the day.
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Next level in the VIX is the FOMC low of 12.80.
I still don't think that will be breached... but we are already very close.
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US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +24pts @ 2104 (intra high 2106). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 2.1% respectively. With a new cycle high, the outlook for a retrace is back on hold.. but is clearly due, with the market having ramped 235pts (12.5%) from the 1871 low, a mere 25 trading days ago.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a new intra high of 2106... but there was a little weakness into the close.. as no doubt some of the smarter bulls were closing out on further gains.
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Frankly, I am surprised at another new cycle high.
After the sustained price action >1950, I thought 2040/60 was a somewhat bold target for continued upside.. but now we're a clear 2% above that zone.
To be clear.. a retrace is DUE, but with another new cycle high.. the bears are back to square one... or should that be the circle of hell?
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Best guess... a test of the 200dma.. later this week. A weekly close in the 2050/40s would be a bonus.. and keep open 2020/10s next week.. or certainly no later than opex (Nov'20th).
On no realistic outlook do I see sustained action <sp'2K for the rest of the year... or first half of 2016.
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With zero (or should that be negative?) downside power from the equity bears, the market is in rather disturbing classic algo-bot melt mode.. and we're back in the sp'2100s. VIX is -7% in the 13.90s.... all that is left is the FOMC low of 12.80.
sp'60min
sp'monthly1b
Summary
*again, I have to throw out a monthly chart... the October close was decisive.. at least to me.
ALL broader bearish outlooks are OFF.
I am utterly bemused how anyone can see this market seeing sustained action under the sp'2K threshold for the remainder of the year.
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A retrace IS still due of course... but with every point higher.. it drags upward the downside target... currently the 2020/10 zone.
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US equities are still clawing upward.. with a new cycle high of sp'2096. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, are leading the way higher, by 1.3% and 1.6% respectively. Oil, -0.7% is no doubt particularly helping the Transports.
Trans, daily
R2K, daily
Summary
For now... there is zero sign of a turn... not least reflected in the two leading indexes.
Despite all that... lower levels still look probable... but considering current price action... no earlier than Wednesday.
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notable strength...
Financials: BAC, 1.6% in the $17s.. with renewed hope that the Fed will raise rates in Dec'.
DIS, +1.2% in the $115s.. as the Star Wars hysteria builds... with earnings at the Thursday close.
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US equities are still managing to claw higher.. if it at a nano-scale pace... with sp'2095. VIX has naturally cooled, -5% in the 14.20s. With the USD battling to turn positive, the metals and Oil remain under pressure... Gold -$6, with Oil -0.5%.
sp'60min
Summary
Price action really is super small scale chop... leaning on the upside.
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notable strength...
FB, +1%..
*earnings due at the Wed' close. Current PE is in the high 30s... not exactly cheap.. with no dividend.
US equities remain moderately higher, with a fractional new cycle high of sp'2094.61. Broadly though, the market looks tired, and with every passing hour.. it becomes more difficult for the equity bulls to keep pushing. Metals are weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -1.1%. Oil is starting to cool, -0.8%.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Clearly..net daily gains look due... but probably not in the 2090s.
There are increasingly more stocks that look utterly maxed out, and are already rolling over. NFLX is a rather classic example...-1.2%... having failed to break/hold the $110s.
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Meanwhile, here in London city...
11.10am... EST
A pretty good late afternoon, but the dense fog will likely soon return... and that will certainly mess with the airlines. Why aren't all planes just using auto-pilot take/off landing as they can anyway? Do we blame the Transport workers union? Probably.
Despite hitting sp'2093.. a mere 1pt below the Friday high, the broader equity market still looks vulnerable.. with net daily declines very viable. With the USD -0.2% in the DXY 96.70s, the metals remain weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -1.3%.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
Little to add.
Even if a new high is broken today, it will not negate the underlying price pressure.. which is swinging back toward the equity bears.
Market is clearly due a sig' retrace.. and the jobs data (across Wed-Friday).. would make for a natural excuse.
US equities open a little higher, sp' +10pts @ 2090, but the market looks increasingly vulnerable. The daily cycles are offering a clear bearish MACD cross, no later than Thursday. Gold is starting a new month on a weak note, -$7. Oil is back to flat.. in the $46s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
A new month begins on a moderately positive note... but all things considered, it would be bizarre if we don't see a retrace across the next few weeks.
notable weakness, miners... GDX -1.0%.... rest of the year could be pretty rough for the miners/metals... not least if the Fed finally raise rates at the Dec' FOMC.
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Opening reversal in NFLX
Its got stuck at the gap zone.... looks vulnerable to 95/90... within 2-3 weeks. A test of the 200dma remains very viable.. before upside into end year. Nov' chatter on 'Jessica Jones'.. amongst other shows will no doubt help.
Good morning. US equity futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2081. It would seem that 2094 is a short term high, and the market is now headed to the 2020/00 zone within 2-3 weeks.
sp'daily5
Summary
Overnight futures were -10pts or so... not least pressured by weakness in Asia.
It does seem very likely we'll see closing declines today... and clarify that last Friday was the peak of the up cycle from sp'1871.
It should be a far more dynamic week than last week, and we still have further corp' earnings, notably: FB and DIS.
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Energy prices remain weak...
Nat' gas -4.2%. Oil -1.0%....
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Update from Oscar
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Casey
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Overnight Asia action
Japan: -2.1% @ 18683... not the best of starts to a new month
China: -1.7% @ 3325... unravelling into the close.
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Have a good Monday
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9.39am.. It is notable that with sp +6pts... VIX is +2%.... it does not bode well for the equity bulls.
