VIX climbs a little

With US equity indexes seeing some weakness into the close, the VIX turned upward, settling +3.7% @ 18.84   (intra low 16.86). Near term outlook offers further (brief) equity weakness, but the sp'2019 low should hold, with VIX then cooling into early December.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

VIX should remain broadly under the key 20 threshold for the remainder of the month.. and probably all the way into the next FOMC of Dec'16th.

*I have ZERO interest in being long the VIX.. at least for some weeks.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2050 (intra high 2066). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a little further weakness to the 2030s, but the 2019 low should comfortably hold. The sp'2100s look due into December.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: choppy.... clearly leaning on the weaker side, with a new intraday low of 2045.
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So.. a short term top of 2066 - at declining resistance/trend, and now its simply a case of whether the 2019 low will hold.

Considering the bigger daily/weekly cycles. that looks extremely probable.

If I'm in the mood tomorrow, even I might go shopping in market land.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - vulnerable into the close

US equity indexes are looking increasingly vulnerable into the close, with net minor daily declines viable. Oil inventories are unlikely to be 'inspiring', and it bodes in favour of equity bears for Wed' morning. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10, with Silver -0.2%. Oil is -3.0% in the low $40s.


sp'60min

USO' daily2

Summary

*re: oil inventories: API due in AH, EIA oil report.. due Wed' 10.30am.
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We have a short term high of sp'2066...  the Monday opening low of 2019 should comfortably hold tomorrow.. and indeed.. for at least some weeks.
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notable weakness...

CHK -7.4%
FCX -5.3%
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3.05pm... meanwhile... just to the west of yours truly...

England vs France... so far.. its all rather subdued.

Not a great night in London city... as Winter storm 'Barney' is sweeping eastward.
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3.14pm.. sp -6pts...  VIX is powering upward...

60min

Kinda interesting.. but even if VIX breaks above the Friday high.. equity bears need to see sp' <2019.. and that looks extremely unlikely.
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3.35pm.. chop chop... sp @ 2051.. with VIX 19s

Further weakness early tomorrow.. a brief foray into the 2030s.... and then UP.

back at the close...

2pm update - USD pressuring commodities

With the USD +0.2% in the DXY 99.60s, commodities are under natural pressure, with Gold -$12, Silver -0.5%, and WTIC Oil -2.8% in the low $40s. It remains the case that EU/Asia equity markets are particularly strong due to the strengthening USD.. and their respective weaker domestic currencies.


UUP, daily

GLD, daily

Summary

Little to add.

re: equities.  Whether a marginally higher or lower close...  the broader trend remains UP.

notable weakness: miners, GDX -4.8%

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back at 3pm

1pm update - reversing at resistance

The sp'500 is starting to cool from an earlier high of 2066, reversing at declining resistance/trend from the 2116 high. Regardless of any retrace into the close/Wednesday, the broader trend remains unquestionably upward into December. Gold/Oil remain notably weak.


sp'60min

USO'daily2

Summary

*Gold hits a new multi-year low of $1064... as Silver/Copper remain similarly weak.
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The weakness in Oil is clearly restraining the upward push in equities. With the API/EIA inventory reports due - neither will likely be pretty, Oil remains at threat of losing the $40 threshold.

I'm increasingly suspicious that even if Oil loses $40 in the immediate term, the market will be able shrug it off.. as underlying pressure in equities is pretty strongly higher.
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notable strength; NFLX +5.6% in the $117s... as Jessica Jones is another day closer.

weakness, miners, GDX -4.5%... with many individual miners now lower for the month by -10/15%.

12pm update - new multi-year low for Gold

Whilst US equities continue to slowly build moderate gains, there is notable weakness in Gold.. breaking a new multi-year low of $1066. This is naturally impacting the miners, with the ETF of GDX -4.2%. With the USD set to break above DXY 100.. and onward to the 120s... that won't help the gold bugs either, lol.


GLD, daily

GDX, daily

Summary

*You have to understand, despite being a major supporter of Gold/Silver as a physical asset to guard against the maniacs at PRINT HQ... for now.. there is no turn... and lower prices are well... happening.

Again, implications for the related mining stocks should be clear.
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Little to add... except to laugh in the faces of those nasty witch hunting sons of bitches across the various Gold sites who forever tout Gold will be 5K by year end, and anyone who says no.. 'we'll drive offline'.

There is plenty more pain coming for that mindless collective.

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VIX update from Mr T. 



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time for tea

11am update - underlying upward pressure

After a brief scare to sp'2049, normal service has resumed, with a move into the sp'2060s. More notably, the USD is +0.2% in the DXY 99.60s. The giant 100 threshold is clearly viable at any time. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.3%. Oil is bouncing from early lows, -1.8%.


sp'60min

Summary

.. and that is why I can't be shorting this madness, as any opening reversal is itself prone to reversing higher.

We've a clear low of sp'2019.. and underlying pressure is set to remain bullish into December... making any attempt to short the market (even for brief day trades) overly risky.

Yes.. we're still due to retrace/cool... not least if Oil remains weak into tomorrow morning. Yet.. at best, market will probably want to merely build a baby bull flag... and settle the week somewhere in the 2070s.

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notable weakness...

Miners, ETF of GDX

Price structure is a clear bear flag... stuck under the daily 10MA. With Gold on track for the psy' level of $1000, the miners will unquestionably be dragged lower. Ugly sector... much like oil/gas stocks.

10am update - opening reversal

US equity indexes open a little higher, but have already turned negative.. as the smaller 15/60min cycles are clearly on the high side. Commodities are struggling, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is -2.7%... once again battling to hold the key $40 threshold.


sp'60min

USO'daily2

GLD, daily

Summary

An interesting open, but nothing for the equity bears to get overly excited about.

Regardless of any equity weakness across today/early tomorrow... nothing has changed.. we're still set to battle upward into the sp'2100s.

The Asia/EU markets are all looking particularly strong.. helped by their currencies weakening against the USD.
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notable weakness: miners, GDX -1.8%.
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I've eyes on DIS, AAPL, BAC... all as potential longs.

Under no near term outlook can I consider any market shorts. Pointless.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open around 2060. USD is a touch higher, +0.1% in the DXY 99.50s. Metals are weak, Gold -$4, whilst Oil is -1.6% in the $41s.


sp'60min

Gold, monthly'2, fibs

Summary

re: Gold. The key low of $1072 is vulnerable at any time... once a break... there really isn't any support until the $1000 psy' level. After that... 900/875.. which looks viable next spring.

Further downside will have severe bearish implications for the related mining stocks.
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So.. we're set to open higher... and increasingly more are starting to realise we have very likely seen a key floor of sp'2019.

Yes, there will be little retraces along the way... but it looks VERY probable that we'll be back in the 2100s.... the only issue is whether new historic highs will be made in this wave.
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Overnight Asia action

Japan: +1.2% @ 19630, solid gains... the 20000s are due before end month.
China: -0.1% '@ 3604... earlier gains... fading into the close.
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Have a good Tuesday
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8.31am   CPI data inline... m/m +0.2%., y/y +0.2%

Metals/equities mostly unchanged.
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Broad upside into the next FOMC

Regardless of any equity weakness across Tue/Wednesday (not least if Oil inventories remain high), it would appear the market has a secure floor of sp'2019, and is now headed broadly higher into mid December. First target is the recent high of 2116, and then the historic May high of 2134.


sp'weekly1b

Summary

Suffice to add... a rather strong reversal from the opening low of sp'2019... to close in the 2050s. A minor retrace looks due tomorrow/Wednesday... but broadly.. the 2100s appear extremely probable.
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*Bonus chart*  - USD, weekly

The week starts with a net daily gain for the USD. A Nov' close >DXY 100 looks unlikely... but Dec/Jan are another matter entirely. Indeed, those equity bears seeking a test/break of the Aug' equity lows should be praying for a monthly close >100. That sure would help.


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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see the latest CPI, indust' prod', and housing market index.

*two fed officials are set to speak, but the issues concerned are not likely relevant to US equities.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +30pts @ 2053. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for broad upside into the next FOMC of Dec'16th. From there... it really is up to the Fed. If no rate rise... uncertainty and lack of confidence will return to world capital markets.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Suffice to say.. we have bullish engulfing candles all over the place... offering a strong floor from sp'2019.

The 2100s look due within a few weeks... and then a challenge of historic highs before year end.

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a little more later....