Whilst US equity indexes closed moderately higher, the VIX was unable to hold early morning gains (intra high 19.10), settling -1.8% @ 18.34. Outlook into next week offers the sp'2020/40 zone, and that should equate to VIX 15/14s...before a key floor is put in.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add... VIX did break to the 19s this morning, but cyclically looks tired, and highly vulnerable to cooling to the mid teens by next week's FOMC.
Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range until late next week. The 30s.. perhaps by end March.
Hyper upside to the 40/50s are clearly out of range until mid April/May.
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US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +10pts @ 1989 (intra high 1992). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a 'Draghi inspired' break above last Friday's high of sp'2009.. with a test of the 200dma (currently 2021) early next week.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: increasingly nano-scale chop.... tedious... and NOT bearish.
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I've marginally re-drawn the bull flag, but whatever you want to call it, price action/structure does not favour the bears tomorrow.
There will be high threat of another 2-3 day climb... to the 200dma in the 2018/20 zone by late Friday/early Monday.
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**CEO of Square/Twitter set to appear on clown finance TV at 4.30pm. Dorsey remains a rather strange character.. whilst TWTR itself just appears to becoming myspace v2.0.
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US equity indexes are set to close a little higher, ahead of the next ECB meeting.. where NIRP will likely be intensified, along with a possible increase/extension of the ongoing venture in paper printing. As things are, the setup still favours the equity bulls into next week.
sp'daily5
Summary
Regardless of the exact close, what should be clear, yesterday saw broad weakness.. and we sure didn't see any downside follow through today.
I suppose some could still look for weakness tomorrow on 'Draghi disappoints', but the setup argues against it.
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notable strength.. miners, GDX, daily2
Gold remains -$8, but the miners have swung from declines of -3% to currently +1%. However.. we do have a lower low.. and a lower high. Broadly, metals/miners look vulnerable into the FOMC.
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Whilst US equity indexes are holding moderate gains ahead of the latest ECB announcement/Draghi press conf', it is notable that the upper bollinger band on the daily cycle is already offering the mid sp'2030s. By next week's FOMC, a gap fill in the 2038/43 zone will be viable.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*VIX remains broadly subdued, having hit the 19s... but looks vulnerable to 15/14s next Wed' at what should be 'max bullishness' in the mainstream.
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So... it remains pretty subdued.. and that won't likely change for rest of today.
Anyone currently short.. can have NO excuse to be whining tomorrow, if Draghi 'inspires' the markets. Its not like we don't know he is due.
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US equities remain moderately higher, sp +6pts @ 1985. With the ECB tomorrow, there remains high risk of another push higher into the sp'2010s before the weekend. Metals have rallied from the earlier lows, Gold -$4, with Silver back to u/c. Oil is holding sig' gains of 4.5% in the $38s.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Its naturally kinda quiet out there, and most are now just waiting for the ECB tomorrow.
Price structure mains bullish, and cyclically, the setup also favours the bulls for rest of the week.
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Meanwhile, on clown finance TV
So... despite being stuck since May'2015, four of the regulars still don't see any problems ahead. No doubt they'll be 'ohh so surprised' when sp'1700/1600s.
.. then talk will swing to whether the fed will need to follow the BoJ and ECB, and move to NIRP.
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notable weakness... TVIX, daily
With VIX reversing from the 19s, TVIX is naturally cooling. Price structure could be argued is a 4 day bear flag... with the $5s briefly viable next week.
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US equities remain moderately higher, and look set for a net daily gain, ahead of the ECB. Price structure favours the bulls, with a break >2009 viable tomorrow.. which will open the door to a test of the 200dma - currently @ 2021. VIX has naturally turned negative.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*metals/miners are choppy, but broadly.. look on track to slip for another 5 days.
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Little to add.
We have a provisional break of what is a big bull flag... a daily close in the 1995/2005 zone looks probable.
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time to see what the cheerleaders are saying on clown finance TV (I've had them largely on mute for the last few days).
.. I'd imagine they'll be max-bullish by next Wednesday
US equities remain moderately higher, helped by a market that currently perceives a weekly net oil inventory surplus of 3.9 million barrels as a positive. Oil is +4.5% in the $38s, but there will be huge resistance at the $40 threshold. Metals are off the lows, but remain weak for a second day, Gold -$7.
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
Equity price structure is offering a large bull flag that extends back to last Friday's high of 2009.
The ECB would be the valid excuse to break >2009.. and test the 200dma.. currently at 2021.
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notable weakness... SDRL, daily
For those chasing the $7s last Friday... its another bad day.
Capitulation in the oil/gas/mining/shipping sectors is still due.
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US equity indexes open moderately higher, with the sp +6pts @ 1985. There is notable weakness in the precious metals, Gold -$16, with Silver -0.7%. The related mining stocks are naturally on the slide, with the miner ETF of GDX -2.8% in the $18.80s. Oil is +2.3%, ahead of the EIA report.
sp'60min
GLD, daily2
GDX, daily2
Summary
Equities remain somewhat messy... not least ahead of the oil report and the Thursday ECB.
I continue to see Gold/miners as being an indirect signal for an equity ceiling next week. For now... the retrace appears on track.
Ideally, Gold/miners will see a floor next Wednesday afternoon, and then reverse powerfully higher.
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..back for the EIA report at 10.30am.
10.31am.. Inventory surplus.. hey.. it was only 3.9 million barrels.. lol
Clearly. Oil is headed to $50.. and the proverbial moon, yes?
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In any case.. equity bulls should be relieved at the number.... next issue will be the ECB.
The sp'2020/40 zone remains very viable by next Wed' afternoon.
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +13pts, we're set to open at 1992. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 97.40s. Metals continue to retrace, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.3%. Oil is +2.4% in the $37s.... ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
Summary
Underlying MACD cycle is on the low side, so there is threat the opening gains will be built upon, especially if the market can tolerate the EIA report (10.30am).
Regardless of today though, the bigger issue will be the ECB tomorrow. If the EU markets are at least moderately pleased, we'll be testing the 200dma in the sp'2020s... and if that occurs by next Tuesday, it won't take much for a brief gap fill of 2038/43 on FOMC day itself.
From there though... we should max out.... and weaken into end month.
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I continue to have particular focus on Gold/miners
GLD, daily2
I'd sure like to see a 38% retrace complete by next Wednesday afternoon, which would help to signal equities have maxed out.
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Update from a particularly loud Mr C.
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Overnight action
Japan: -0.8% in the 16600s
China: -1.3% @ 2862
Germany: currently +1.3% @ 9817, 10K stands as huge resistance.
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From a price perspective, having ramped from sp'1810 to 2009, we're about there in terms of price. Similarly, we've seen around a month of time elapse, and in theory, that is more than enough to deem this latest bear market rally as almost complete.
sp'weekly8f
sp'monthly1b
Summary
Whether you agree with the notion of using previous patterns is not particularly important.
What most should be able to agree on though, is that since May'2015, the market has been increasingly upset, and has put in a series of marginally lower highs.. and lower lows.
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Equity bears MUST be seeking a March close under the monthly 10MA.. which currently sits at 2011. Preferably, the market will cool from mid March into end month, a closing <1950 would be a good bearish sign for April/May.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see Wholesale trade and the latest EIA report.
The market will be almost entirely focused on what will likely be another large Oil inventory surplus.. somewhere in the range of 6-8 million barrels.
Technically, WTIC Oil should not see any sustained price action above the $40 threshold, and primary target remains a new multi-decade low of $20.. and eventually, the 16/15s.
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US equities closed broadly weak, with the sp'500 -22pts @ 1979. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.7% and -2.4% respectively. Near
term outlook threatens early Wednesday weakness, but it still seems
highly probable that the equity bulls will push >2009, to at least
test the 200dma, into the next FOMC.
sp'daily
R2K
Trans
Summary
Suffice to add, the weakness in the two leaders - Trans/R2K, was very significant, but broadly, the main market saw only borderline sig' downside.. on what was.. relatively light vol'.
For the moment, renewed upside still looks due, into next week's FOMC.
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