Monday 16 September 2013

12pm update - pushing higher

The main indexes are holding gains of around 1%, with the sp' in the low 1700s. The VIX is back to red, after slight earlier gains. Metals and Oil remain weak, but off the lows. Despite a touch of weakness seen in the R2K, the broader market looks set to close pretty strong.



Without getting wrapped up in the minor noise..the bigger weekly chart is what matters. Near term upside looks to be in the 1715/25 zone.

Certainly, I find it near impossible to conceive of a hyper-ramp to 1740/60s this month.

Lower weekly bol' is now up to 1693, although is starting to flatten. Regardless, the notion of returning to the June low of 1560..just how is that viable any time soon?

time for lunch

11am update - underlying pressure remains upward

Despite a touch of weakness after the opening jump higher, the bears have no downside power, and the market is battling to break new highs. VIX is a touch lower, although that is still impressive considering the index gains. Metals/Oil remain weak, despite a moderately lower USD, -0.4%.



All things considered, I'd be very surprised if we close red today. Indeed, I'm guessing there is a very reasonable chance we'll close strongly >sp'1705.

Weekly charts look pretty strong, but as ever..bulls have to keep pushing..and break new index highs..or the bears have a small 'sell the news' opportunity this Wednesday.

Notable movers: AAPL, and FB, that latter has seen a strong reversal to the downside.

*I am content on the sidelines, after exiting index-longs @ sp'1703.

UPDATE 11.01... Hmm, the R2K is looking especially weak, having lost over half the opening gains.

Kinda interesting.

10am update - back on the sidelines

The main indexes are holding gains of around 0.8%, but its not quite the hyper-bullish open that many were expecting. Those bulls seeking a strong close should be somewhat concerned with a VIX that is higher, +1.5% in the low 14s. Metals and Oil remain weak.




*I exited index-longs at the open, sp'1703. I will not be re-shorting the indexes today, regardless of any intra-day price action.

So...we're higher, but its actually looking a little weak out there.

Equity bears really need a VIX back in the 15s. above the declining daily 10MA before having any confidence of an FOMC upset.

Certainly, we have a very interesting week ahead!

AAPL is having problems... -$11...and has lost the 200 day MA

Bulls should be a little concerned with that.

10.26am.. no power on the bear rallies back after micro down-cycle. VIX set to turn red.

Looks like anyone shorting the open is about to get nailed.


Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are significantly higher, sp +18pts, we're set to open around 1706 - a mere 3pts from the 1709 high of Aug'2nd. Precious metals are significantly lower, Gold -$13, Oil is similarly lower, -1.5%. USD is -0.45%.



So, the overnight 'summers not joining the Fed' gains are holding.

There is naturally some talk of 'ohh, it'll reverse lower at the open', but I'm guessing no. The weekly charts are outright bullish, and the first target is the sp'1715/25 zone, as also offered on the monthly charts.

Considering the equity gains, VIX has a fair chance of opening in the12s.

*I will look to exit index-longs at the open, and most not intending to launch any index-shorts today.

Mr Permabull remains....bullish

Have a good day everyone.

9.25am.. metals have recovered half the declines, but still...I'd be surprised if they closed positive today.

Indexes look set to open on track..and build gains for the first hour or two.

9.35am... VIX opens a touch higher...not even the 13s. Hmmm

EXITED index-long at sp'1703

9.43am.. a touch of weakness out there...not least supported by the VIX, now +1%.

Regardless, extreme risk in shorting this opening gap...and i will not be shorting this market any time today.

Sunday night update - post Summers ramp

The Sunday evening US equity futures are significantly higher on news that Larry Summers will not be running for the Fed Chairman job. The sp' +18/21pts, which will take the market straight to a test of the key 1709 high.




Summary is how I see it...after reading around a little.

It would seem Mr Market is using the excuse that since Summers is perceived as less QE positive than Yellen (or anyone else out there)...that this is good news..and everything is risk-on again.

Bond yields look set to drop, along with the USD - at least to some moderate extent.

New historic highs ...urghh

It would look like we're going to break new historic highs for most of the main indexes at the Monday open. The cheer leaders on clown finance TV are going to be especially sickening to watch. Although maybe they'll squirm a bit if they can admit the market is rallying on 'no summers'.

In terms of price, weekly charts will be offering sp'1717/20 for Monday, although the daily charts will look real stretched once we open in the 1705/10 zone.

Another 'excuse' to ramp

Frankly, I despise this kind of market nonsense. It has been the bane for the bears for over four years now, and I'm still not used to it.

*As it is..I'm long the indexes, but will look to exit at the Monday open..and reassess. I do not particularly like the idea of holding any positions on Fed/FOMC day, so if I do exit Monday morning, I'll probably sit it out until early Thursday.

Regardless...I can sympathise with all those short across the weekend, and who are now disgusted with how things look for Monday.

Goodnight from London