VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains broadly subdued, and even if the main market rolls over with the next FOMC/GDP data, sustained action in the 20s looks difficult.
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more later... on the indexes
Monday 26 October 2015
VIX higher for a second day
With equities closing moderately mixed, the VIX managed the second consecutive (if minor) net daily gain, settling +5.7% @ 15.29. Near term outlook offers threat of the sp'2080/90s, before a viable reversal into early November. The VIX 20 threshold looks a difficult level to hit.. even if sp'2K.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains broadly subdued, and even if the main market rolls over with the next FOMC/GDP data, sustained action in the 20s looks difficult.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains broadly subdued, and even if the main market rolls over with the next FOMC/GDP data, sustained action in the 20s looks difficult.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts @ 2071 (intra low 2066). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2080/90s before a probable retrace. Post FOMC/GDP downside target is the sp'2000 threshold.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour... nano scale micro action....
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A quiet start to the week.
However, there is more opportunity for some price action.. with further earnings.. and some rather significant econ-data (Q3 GDP.. Thursday)
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more later.. on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour... nano scale micro action....
--
A quiet start to the week.
However, there is more opportunity for some price action.. with further earnings.. and some rather significant econ-data (Q3 GDP.. Thursday)
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more later.. on the VIX
3pm, 7pm, or maybe the 2pm update
It remains a rather quiet start to the week. With UK clocks moving back to GMT... aka, '6 months of grey horror', there are a mere 4 hours difference between east coast USA and the UK. For yours truly... its all a bit disorienting. Are we closed yet?
sp'daily5
Summary
.. suffice to say... I'm tired.... and I merely await the close.
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notable strength
NFLX... day'2 UP
Broadly though, the stock looks vulnerable.... not least if the main market rolls over later this week
back at 4pm... EST
sp'daily5
Summary
.. suffice to say... I'm tired.... and I merely await the close.
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notable strength
NFLX... day'2 UP
Broadly though, the stock looks vulnerable.... not least if the main market rolls over later this week
back at 4pm... EST
2pm update - strength in the airlines
Whilst the broader market is trading mostly flat, there is notable strength in the airlines. Delta (DAL) and United (UAL) are currently higher by 0.4% and 1.8% respectively. Further weakness in Oil prices, -1.7% in the $43s is no doubt helping.
DAL, daily
UAL, daily
Summary
Suffice to say, DAL is leading the way higher... with UAL now making an attempt for a daily close above the 200dma. Its pretty bullish.
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Meanwhile, here in London...
Dusk at 4pm. Great. Just great.
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back at 3pm
DAL, daily
UAL, daily
Summary
Suffice to say, DAL is leading the way higher... with UAL now making an attempt for a daily close above the 200dma. Its pretty bullish.
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Meanwhile, here in London...
Dusk at 4pm. Great. Just great.
--
back at 3pm
1pm update - chop chop
US equities remain in micro chop mode, with the sp'500 -1pt @ 2073. There is near term viable downside to the 2060/55 gap zone, but broadly, the 2080/90s appear more probable before any degree of a multi-day retrace can begin. Oil remains notably weak, -1.0% in the $44s.
sp'60min
Summary
Considering the current price action.. the 2060/55 zone looks unlikely until after the FOMC.
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notable strength: BABA +2.2%
Like a great many other stocks, even BABA has managed to break up and out of the mid term down trend. First obvious target is the 200dma.. around $81
sp'60min
Summary
Considering the current price action.. the 2060/55 zone looks unlikely until after the FOMC.
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notable strength: BABA +2.2%
Like a great many other stocks, even BABA has managed to break up and out of the mid term down trend. First obvious target is the 200dma.. around $81
12pm update - remaining quiet
US equity indexes remain in moderate chop mode, mere consolidation after last the strong gains of last Thurs/Friday. USD is -0.3% in the DXY 96.80s. Gold +$1. Oil -1.3%.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
re: VIX.. the upper teens will be valid target in the next cycle... but sustained 20s... difficult.
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notable weakness: AAPL, -3.2% in the $115s.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for some sun
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
re: VIX.. the upper teens will be valid target in the next cycle... but sustained 20s... difficult.
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notable weakness: AAPL, -3.2% in the $115s.
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VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for some sun
11am update - natural chop
US equities are in minor chop mode.. and that seems likely to continue for at least another day or so. The daily charts are highly suggestive the market will not be able to see sustained action >2100 in the current up wave, and will instead see a retrace to no lower than 2000 by mid November.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Little to add.. on what is going to be a rather quiet couple of days.. ahead of the FOMC.
As things are, I'm more inclined to see the GDP data (due Thursday) as the first excuse for a market retrace. Market is expecting Q3 +1.7%.. which although not a bold number, could still be missed.
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notable weakness: QCOM -3%, AAPL -2.6%...
If AAPL earnings please the market, that would make for an extra push to sp'2080/90s..before a short term retrace.
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time for an early lunch
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Little to add.. on what is going to be a rather quiet couple of days.. ahead of the FOMC.
As things are, I'm more inclined to see the GDP data (due Thursday) as the first excuse for a market retrace. Market is expecting Q3 +1.7%.. which although not a bold number, could still be missed.
-
notable weakness: QCOM -3%, AAPL -2.6%...
If AAPL earnings please the market, that would make for an extra push to sp'2080/90s..before a short term retrace.
-
time for an early lunch
10am update - opening minor weakness
US equity indexes open with some minor chop... leaning on the weaker side. Broadly though, the market should hold together (at least) until the FOMC announcement this Wed' afternoon. There is notable weakness in Oil, -1.4% in the $43s.
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
*Oil is looking rather ugly... breaking decisively below the trading range of the past two months.
--
As for equities...
Some degree of latter day recovery looks highly probable. Whether we can settle net higher.. difficult to say.
Really, its a case of lets see what kind of reaction we get on Wednesday/Thursday. Clearly, a retrace is due.. having hyper-ramped from 1893 to 2077... but sustained action <2000 now looks unlikely.
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notable weakness... AAPL -2.9% in the $115s... pre-earnings cooling... but then, it has ramped from the $110s last Monday.
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
*Oil is looking rather ugly... breaking decisively below the trading range of the past two months.
--
As for equities...
Some degree of latter day recovery looks highly probable. Whether we can settle net higher.. difficult to say.
Really, its a case of lets see what kind of reaction we get on Wednesday/Thursday. Clearly, a retrace is due.. having hyper-ramped from 1893 to 2077... but sustained action <2000 now looks unlikely.
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notable weakness... AAPL -2.9% in the $115s... pre-earnings cooling... but then, it has ramped from the $110s last Monday.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2069. USD is a little weak, -0.2% in the DXY 96.90s. Gold +$2. Oil -0.3%.
sp'daily5
Summary
So, we're set to open a little lower, but broadly, the market should hold together until Wednesday afternoon.
Clearly, a retrace is due... and the FOMC... or if not, the GDP data (Thursday) will offer an excuse to begin that.
Other than that... there really isn't much to note.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan +0.6% @ 18947
China +0.5% @ 3429... another notable close above the 3400 threshold.
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Have a good Monday
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8.50am
notable early mover... AAPL, -1% in the $117s. It will be interesting where this one trades... earnings are due at the Tuesday close.
A break >$120 will open up new historic highs... and negate all of the broad sideways chop from earlier this year.
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weakness.. VRX -8%...in the $106s... with a conf. call due... an ultimate PR attempt to reverse the markets increasing concern that the company is at least semi-fraudulent. Could be rather entertaining.. if the $100 threshold is closed under.
sp'daily5
Summary
So, we're set to open a little lower, but broadly, the market should hold together until Wednesday afternoon.
Clearly, a retrace is due... and the FOMC... or if not, the GDP data (Thursday) will offer an excuse to begin that.
Other than that... there really isn't much to note.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan +0.6% @ 18947
China +0.5% @ 3429... another notable close above the 3400 threshold.
-
Have a good Monday
-
8.50am
notable early mover... AAPL, -1% in the $117s. It will be interesting where this one trades... earnings are due at the Tuesday close.
A break >$120 will open up new historic highs... and negate all of the broad sideways chop from earlier this year.
-
weakness.. VRX -8%...in the $106s... with a conf. call due... an ultimate PR attempt to reverse the markets increasing concern that the company is at least semi-fraudulent. Could be rather entertaining.. if the $100 threshold is closed under.
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