Friday 8 March 2019

Reversal into the weekend

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -5pts (0.2%) at 2743. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow -0.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.1% respectively.




Overnight markets were ugly, especially in China and Japan. The US monthly jobs data from the BLS wasn't inspiring...

Indeed, the first thoughts of many... 'is 20k a typo?'. A further annoyance to the market was that average earnings were above expectations. Worse... and overlooked by (almost) everyone, the working week ticked down -0.1 to 34.4hrs. This drop is equivalent to a net job loss of at least 250k.

Was is just a 'fluky number' as Kudlow - wheeled out in early morning, deemed it? The macro-econ bears will need to see at least a couple more such prints to suggest a major economic turn has occurred, rather than just some weakening since Q4.

Anyway, equities opened broadly lower, but found a floor from a secondary gap of 2722. The afternoon saw choppy weakness, but the morning low held into the weekend.

Volatility broke a new cycle high of 18.33, but with a latter day equity recovery, the VIX cooled, settling in the low 16s.

The settling index candles (even in the transports) were of the hollow red type, and lean s/t bullish for Mon/Tuesday. 

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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