Tuesday 10 July 2018

Stronger than expected

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +9pts (0.3%) at 2793. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled -0.4% at 12.64. Near term outlook offers cooling to minimum technical necessity of sp'2768, before resuming upward into the 2800s.




US equities opened a little higher, and saw a morning high of 2795. There was a little cooling in the afternoon, a micro rally into the close, but notably shy of the morning high. Volatility was very subdued, with the VIX settling in the mid 12s.

Ongoing equity strength is indeed stronger than expected, but a cooling wave is due, if only for a day or two. The fact the Trans and R2K settled net lower today, is subtly suggestive the headline indexes (dow, sp', and nasdaq) will follow tomorrow and/or Thursday. In any case, more broadly, the outlook is bullish, as a superb earnings season is set to properly begin this Friday.

Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

The DAX is currently +2.5% at 12609. Whilst still under the key 10MA, the long term trend from 2009 is still intact. Arguably, those seeking sp'3K late summer/early autumn, should look for the DAX to attain a July close above 12750 or so.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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