Thursday 21 March 2019

Post FOMC chatter

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +30pts (1.1%) at 2854. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.4% and +1.2% respectively.




US equities opened moderately lower, but there was a reversal, with equities building significant gains into the late afternoon. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling a little lower in the mid 13s.

Post FOMC chatter

Gundlach summed up the thoughts of many...

Indeed, the outlook and policy of Print Central has massively changed since Q4...

Econ-data and corporate earnings have somewhat weakened, but the real reason for the change in policy is absolutely clear...  the drop in equities from sp'2940>2346. Since late December (starting with Mester), the fed has been wheeling out officials on an increasing basis to tout more dovish monetary policy.

Even the mainstream are a little twitchy after 'more dovish than expected' policy.

Again, I see the end of QT as the precursor to a rate cut. The 'one rate hike in 2020' is to be seen as nonsense. The rate hiking cycle is complete. Yesterday's announcement of an end date for QT strongly supports that notion.

Ohh, and BREXIT is now just eight days away. As things are, the UK is set to exit the EU Friday March 29th at 11pm GMT.

The EU have offered PM May an extension to May 22nd, but on the condition of a 'positive vote in the house of commons next week', although no one is exactly sure what that means. For what is one of the biggest decisions the UK has ever taken... this remains outright chaos. The capital markets will not be pleased if there is a 'hard exit'.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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