With US equity indexes breaking new cycle highs, the VIX broke a new multi-month low of 12.50. However, with some distinct equity cooling into the close, the VIX pushed back upward, settling +0.3% @ 13.28, notably above short term declining trend/resistance.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*daily candle is offering a somewhat clear spike floor from 12.50.
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So... the first net daily gain for the VIX in 7 trading days.
The 14s looks probable tomorrow.
The gap zone of sp'2065/61 will likely equate to VIX 15.50/16.50.
Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range until the latter half of May.
US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +1pt @ 2102 (intra high 2111). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook still offers cooling to the gap zone of 2065/61, but a monthly close <2050 looks increasingly difficult.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: distinct closing hour weakness, swinging from a new intra high of 2111.05.
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Despite the closing hour weakness.. it was unquestionably another day for the equity bears, as most equity indexes broke new multi-month highs.
Even if we somehow cool to the obvious gap zone in the 2060s, it will do little to negate the broader upward trend since February.
With the algo-bot melt continuing, we've now seen the sp'500 net higher by 300pts (16.6%) from the Feb'11th low.. with VIX having cooled from the 30s to the 12s. It is of course entirely understandable as earnings are great, and the world economy is stronger than ever before.. especially in South America.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*yes, there is a touch of upside in the VIX from earlier lows.. but still.... holding under declining resistance/trend.
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Suffice to add, regardless of the close, with a new cycle high for most indexes, its another day for the bulls.
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notable strength: BAC +2.6%...
A clear break above what is pretty important resistance, next level is the 200dma in the $15.50s.
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Despite sporadic micro retraces, the US equity market continues to broadly push higher from the Feb'11th low of sp'1810, having now climbed 298pts (16.5%) across 48 trading days. It remains merely a case of whether a massive bullish breakout occurs... or an epic fail.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*as things are, VIX is set to close lower for the seventh consecutive day.
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Little to add.. on what is just another bizarre day. Earnings continue to come in bad.. but hey.. expectations were set so low... the bad numbers are now seen as fine.
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Here in London city...
A very nice spring day, as the BREXIT vote (June 23rd) is another day closer.
The mighty Dow continues to grind higher, dragging the rest of the market with it. There is nothing but open air to the May'2015 high of 18351. A break above that should initiate those with Dow 20K hats to bring them out of deep storage. Notable strength in Oil, +3.1% in the $43s... washing out another truck load of energy bears.
Dow'daily
USO, daily2
Summary
*another crazy ass day in Oil, swinging from lows of around -2% to +3%... mostly based on more nonsense rumours.. already denied.
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Suffice to add... despite an opening reversal... it has failed to hold...again.
For the moment, those touting sp'2116 are back on track, and we're only 0.5% away, well within range by early tomorrow.
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notable strength: CNX, +7.3%. I guess the US Govt's 'war on coal' has ended, yes?
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With the sp' breaking a fractional new high of 2106, the equity bears are right back to the start again. The VIX has naturally cooled from the early spike rebound of 13.50... back to the 12.60s. USD is +0.3% in the DXY 94.20s.. and for now, that isn't dragging the metals lower, Gold +$3, with Silver +1.2% in the $17s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Suffice to add.. this is starting to get real annoying again.
I realise some are touting sp'2116...... and its notable that the Dow has already broken that equiv' level.
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notable strength, miners... GDX, daily
With the precious metals on the rise.. the miners are naturally following. If you believe Gold is headed for the 1400/1500s... GDX would likely be somewhere in the $35/40 zone.
After a rather vain attempt to break a new cycle high, US equities are under natural downward cyclical pressure. VIX remains most notable, having reversed from an opex low of 12.50, back into the 13s. A daily close in the 14s looks probable.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Naturally, yours truly is particularly interested in the VIX. First soft target are the 16s.
The market could easily use the next FOMC and/or Q1 GDP (next Thurs), as the excuse for broad cooling into end month. The March close was sp'2059, an April close under the recent key low of 2033 would be VERY useful to the bears.
As things are.. even broad cooling will not likely result in a close under the monthly 10MA.. which is in the 2025/15 zone.
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US equities opening fractionally higher, but far more notable is the VIX. Having been smacked lower (for no good reason other than opex) to a new multi-month low of 12.50, the VIX looks set to push back upward. Equity bears should be seeking a Wed' close in the 14s, with sp' under the 2100 threshold.
VIX'60min
sp'60min
Summary
*note the opening hollow-red candle in the VIX... often a sign of a reversal.. to the upside.
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Overall, its pretty subdued out there. Equity bears don't even need a significantly negative close to keep in range a weekly close in the sp'2060s.
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notable reversal... (to the upside), INTC, daily
Testing the 50 and 200dma in the $30.80/90s. Equity bulls could argue price structure is offering a large bull flag from mid March.... they just need to see the $33s to confirm.
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time to shop.. .back for the oil report at 10.30am.
10.31am.. EIA oil report... 2.1 million barrel surplus... relatively small....
Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open around 2101. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 94.00s. Metals are mixed, Gold -$3, whilst Silver is +0.6%. Oil is -1.5% in the $41s.
sp'60min
Summary
By today's close, equity bears just need <2100 to break rising trend... and if we're going to have a chance of reaching the 2065/61 zone by the Friday close, we really do need to close net lower today.
Cyclically, the setup favours the bears, with the MACD equity cycle set to see a bearish cross this morning.
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early movers....
INTC -1.9%... post earnings depression. Maybe they need to just fire even more people?
BA -2.1%
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Overnight action
Japan: opening sig' gains fading across the day, settling +0.2% @ 16906
China: broad weakness, -2.3% @ 2972
Germany: currently +0.2% @ 10369
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It was another day for the equity bull maniacs, who notably achieved a new cycle high of sp'2104, along with Dow 18103. The ultimate issue now is whether new historic highs >sp'2134 and >Dow 18351 can be made in the coming weeks/months.
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To end today.. a few Fibonacci time charts...
sp'weekly1c
sp'monthly5
Summary
So.... what to make of the above?
If you start from May'2015, the weekly cycle is offering 'something' in late May, whilst the monthly cycle is also offering a possible turn in May.
It should be clear, ANY price action >sp'2134 would negate the charts. .. and I sure ain't trading on them.. its just something unusual that I wanted to highlight.
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It is notable that the Nasdaq comp' maxed out in July of 2015, and thus the next time event is pushed out to late July/August.
Nasdaq comp', weekly2
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Macro chatter - Mr Long with Mr Rubino.
For those with an interest in the big picture.. this is a must-view.
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Poster 'Alexandre M.' highlighted the following EW video by Lara.
I try to refrain from counting any of this nonsense, but I will say, its a good video.. with some interesting ideas.
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Looking ahead
Wed' will see Existing home sales and the latest EIA report.
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As ever... your thoughts on the Fib-time charts are welcome.
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +6pts @ 2100 (new cycle
high 2104). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.3% and 0.1%
respectively. Near term outlook offers a break of short term rising
trend/support, a move <2090 will open up the gap zone 2065/61 by the
Friday close.
sp'daily
Dow
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
sp'500: a notable new multi-month high of 2104.. a mere 30pts (1.4%) shy of the May'2015 high.
Dow: a new high of 18103.. just 248pts (1.4%) shy of the May 2015 high.
Nasdaq: a net daily decline of -0.4%, but still holding within the gap zone of the 4900s.
