Despite equities cooling across the week, the VIX never did show any significant upside power, with some distinct cooling into the weekend, settling -7.5% @ 14.72. Across the week, the VIX saw a net decline of -6.2%. The VIX won't remain subdued forever, with the 25/30 zone viable in late May.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
Suffice to say, even in pre-market, with sp -16pts at equiv' of 2034, the VIX only showed gains of around 3-4%, with an early high of 16.58.
With the market clawing upward in the afternoon, the VIX was back in classic pre-weekend melt mode.
Even if the main market breaks lower again next week to the sp'2000/1990s (which is going to be difficult).. that will likely only inspire the VIX to the 19-21s.
Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range until late May.
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US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +6pts @ 2057 (intra low 2039). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is borderline, but remains broadly bearish unless a break >2080. Best case short term downside is the 2000/1990s, before the next sig' bounce of around 3-4%.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: minor chop... with seemingly no one wanting to buy >2057.
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From this evening's movie...
"What am I doing?" Dr Zimsky, 2003
One of my favourite scenes in the rather fun disaster movie 'The Core'. I often feel like Dr Zimsky... narrating into the final seconds.. only to realise its all been largely pointless ;)
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.. and another week in the world's most twisted casino comes to a close.
Most notable this week, despite the market cooling from sp'2083 to 2039, the VIX remained broadly subdued, and was unable to break above last week's high - when the sp' floored at 2052.
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Equity bulls just need to be trading above 2080 next Wed' to break declining trend.. and that will open up a push >2111.
Even if bears can push lower to the 2000/1990s next week, that will merely make for an even stronger opportunity for a 5-10 day bounce of 3-4%.
Best guess: renewed downside, but that is going to take some sporadic 'spooky news', as there isn't anything significant scheduled next week.
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notable weakness.. CHK, daily
Yesterday's candle was a classic black-fail, and we have a clear break of rising trend. CHK remains on the disappear list.
Have a good weekend
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**the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week...
Despite a continued bounce from 2039 to sp'2057, all US equity indexes are still set for a second consecutive net weekly decline, with particular weakness in the two leaders - Trans/R2K. USD continues to claw upward, +0.1% in the DXY 93.90s. Oil remains off the highs, +0.4% in the $44s.
sp'weekly1b
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add... on what is a real messy day.
No doubt some are now touting a new surge higher... well above resistance of the 2080s.... and back into the 2100s.
Yours truly is still seeking another push lower to the 2000/1990s. However, even if that occurs, will the VIX even make it to the 18/19s?
For now... the mainstream remain utterly confident that things are just .... fine.
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Equity price action is increasingly subdued, as the market appears content to trade quietly into the weekend. USD is back to flat in the DXY 93.70s. Oil is again cooling, having got stuck under declining resistance/trend, currently +0.4% in the $44s. Metals remain broadly strong, Gold +$13, with Silver +0.8%.
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
So much for the VIX climbing higher into the weekend.
Its certainly a tedious day for the equity bears, although its notable that all equity indexes are still set for a second consecutive net weekly decline.
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Schiff on Trump... on the US debt.
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Here in London city...
Warm sunshine.. 70s.... with another block of (overly small) London apartments almost finished.
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It sure doesn't particularly feel like it, but it is the case that the sp'500 has seen six net daily declines of the last seven trading days. Despite the decline from 2099 to 2039 (60pts, 2.9%), the VIX has remained stuck in the mid teens. For the moment, the mainstream simply aren't concerned about any corporate/economic issue.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add... the battle continues in market land... price pressure is still leaning to the downside.
There IS a clear divergence between the indexes and the VIX. When the VIX was 17.09 last week, the sp' was @ 2052.. but today's low of 2039 only saw VIX 16.58.
Best bear case is currently sp'2000/1990s (a 38% fib retrace of the 301pt ramp)... and that should equate to VIX in the 19/21 zone.
Even if that is hit though... another 3% bounce then looks due to 2050/60.
Things really don't get interesting until late May.
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notable weakness... AAPL, daily
Not pretty.... sub $90s look due... with 70s this summer.
Whilst the broader US equity market continues to battle it out, there remains notable strength in the precious metals, with Gold +$14 in the $1290s, and Silver +1% in the mid $17s. The related mining stocks are naturally back in surge mode, the ETF of GDX +4.9% in the $25s
GLD, daily
GDX, daily
Summary
Not much to add, the near/mid term outlook for metals and miners is very bullish. We're seeing strong gains whenever there is any weakness/concern in the US/world capital markets.
If Gold 1400/1500s.. GDX 35/40 zone.... which considering it was in 12s in January would be a truly massive climb.
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As for equities.. it remains (bizarrely) the case that the mainstream seem almost entirely unconcerned about anything.. and no doubt, some are still expecting new highs after this 'huge' correction from 2111 to the 2030s.
The bigger weekly cycles are continuing to swing back toward the bears, but clearly... the bigger move will not be until the latter half of the month.
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time to see what the cheerleaders are saying on clown finance TV.
From a pure cyclical perspective, the VIX is set to climb higher from this morning's low of 15.43 into the weekly close. Despite the messy morning price action... underlying pressure remains leaning in favour to the equity bears, with gains in the precious metals remaining an indirect signal.
VIX'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*VIX hourly candles.. spiky floors, bode for increased volatility into the weekly close. Equity bears need to see last Friday's high of 17.09 broken above.
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Five hours left of the week.... plenty of time to still cool to the 2030s... with VIX 17s.
Hourly MACD equity/VIX cycles are still offering a close in the 2020s - with VIX 18s... but yes.. that is 'best case'.
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notable weakness... AAPL, monthly
The April candle should seriously concern the equity bulls. By definition.. its suggestive of $70s
US equities open moderately lower (pre market low equiv' to sp'2034).. but have already seen a reversal to the upside. With the jobs data uncertainty removed, the VIX has already swung from the 16.50s to 15.40s. Metals are battling to hold a fear bid, Gold +$10, with Silver +0.2%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So much for the pre-market declines. Who the hell is buying right now?
Underlying price pressure on the bigger daily/weekly cycles remains increasingly negative, and a further swing lower seems probable.
Clearly though... the bull maniacs are still very content to buy in the sp'2030s.
*I'm still seeking a break into the sp'2020s, but right now, that sure doesn't look as easy as it did 40mins ago.
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Meanwhile... from the ministry of lies...
'Its a pretty solid number' - Perez.
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notable strength, miners, GDX, daily
It remains the case that the metals/miners are trading almost perfectly inverse to the broader equity market.
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower (ahead of the jobs data), sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2043. USD is -0.1% in the DXY 93.60s. Metals are mixed, Gold +$1, whilst Silver -0.1%. Oil is -1.4% in the $43s.
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting the jobs data... due at 8.30am.
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Suffice to add.. if we can break under 2040 in early morning... that will open the door to a weekly close in the 2020s.
... and any such close would give initial clarity/confidence that 2111 is a key mid term high.
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Update from Mr C.
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Overnight action
Japan: -0.2% @ 16106
China: ending the week badly, -2.8% 2913
Germany: currently -0.8% @ 9770
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Have a good Friday... back shortly... for the jobs data.
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8.31am... Net job gains: 160k, headline jobless rate: 5.0%
sp -11pts.. .2039.... we have a provisional break through...
Metals catching a fear bid, Gold +$10.
..notable weakness.. financials.. BAC -1.8%.. as threat of a rate hike drops even further.
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GPRO -9% @ $9.70.... a real mess... after earnings.-
8.43am.. sp -13pts... 2037..... . taking the first of two soft lows of 2039/33.
A break into the 2020s by 11am would be useful.. and open up a test of the 200dma (2012/11) for the weekly close.
Pre-market VIX.. +3% in the 16.40s.... equity bears need to see 17.20s.. if not 18s today.
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8.47am.. with Gold +$11... the miners are naturally on the climb, GDX +2.0%.
9.11am.. sp -9pts... 2041.... Hmmmm
The Cramer seems moderately twitchy.. even talking about 'the overstretched rally from 1810'.
Price action has been pretty subdued this week, but is clearly leaning on the moderately bearish side. A weekly close in the sp'2020s would offer some initial clarity/confidence that 2111 is a key mid term high. After another few weeks of chop.. the first big move lower should begin.
sp'weekly1b
Trans, weekly
Summary
sp'weekly: having already broken the 10MA around 2050, next key support is argubly the giant psy' level of 2K.. where the 20wma is lurking.
Trans: the 'old leader'... a clear break of trend.. next big support is 7600/400 zone. A break <7200 will likely be one of the last warnings the mainstream get before a fast break to new lows.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see the monthly jobs data - market is expecting net job gains of 200k, with a headline jobless rate of 4.9%.
US equities closed on broadly weak, sp -0.5pts @ 2050. The two leaders -
Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.1% and -0.5% respectively. Near term
outlook offers a break of the sp'2040 threshold. The big unknown is
whether the two soft lows of 2039/33 will hold. A weekly close in the
2020s would lead to 2000/1990s, before next bounce.
sp'daily
R2K
Trans
Summary
It is highly notable that two leaders have very clear breaks of trend from the Jan/Feb' lows, and both are leading the rest of the other indexes lower.
Right now, equity bears have a 'best downside case' to the sp'2000/1990s, before next bounce of at least 3-4%.
