Despite a touch of weakness into the weekly/monthly close, the VIX still continued to broadly slide, settling -2.5% @ 13.56 (intra low 13.29). VIX declined for the fourth consecutive week, with a net weekly decline of -5.2%.
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*first upside break/target for the equity bears next Monday will be a daily close in the 14s. That is well within range, and looks due.
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So.. a fourth week lower for the VIX, and the early Feb' high of 22.81 now looks a very long way up.
Sustained trading in the low 20s looks unlikely for some months.
At best... the 17/19s by next Wed/Thursday... which would equate to sp'2060s, where there are multiple aspects of support.
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US equities settled a touch weak, sp -6pts @ 2104. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a minor retrace to the sp'2060s.. where the 50dma will be lurking next week.
sp'60min
Summary
... and another rather tedious week in market land comes to a close.
All things considered, it looks like sp'2119 was a short term high. We look set to slide to the 2060s by next Wed/Thursday.. before renewed upside.
On no basis does it look like the market will be sustainably trading under the 2050 for some months.
Have a good weekend
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*a full set of updates across the evening to wrap up the week
Regardless of the exact close, it has been a powerfully bullish month for the US.. and most world equity indexes. The sp' is set for a net February gain of around 5.5%... totally negating the moderate weakness of January. Broader outlook remains strongly bullish... with the sp'2200/300s viable into the early summer.
sp'monthly
sp'60min
Summary
*the daily cycles are highly suggestive of weakness in the first half of next week.
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Soft support remains 2103/00 zone... a break under that offers 2065 next Tue/Wed.
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Notable weakness, CHK -2.9%
US equities are seeing a touch of weakness... but the key sp'2100 threshold continues to hold. VIX is not offering any market concern, -2% in the 13.60. Metals appear weak, Gold +$4, whilst Oil remains broadly flat.
sp'daily3 - fib retrace
Summary
*the above fib retrace is subject to change of course, on any new high >2119.. but that looks increasingly difficult.
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So... micro chop... with a touch of weakness. It remains very tedious price action.
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US equities remain in a state of micro chop. The only notable thing in the past few days is that the sp'500 has not broken another new high (>2119). Metals are holding gains, Gold +$8. Oil has turned negative, -0.2%. VIX remains in cooling mode, -2% in the 13.60s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Utterly tedious week... and I know I'm not the only one feeling that way.
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US equities remain in minor chop mode.. ahead of the weekend. A rally into the afternoon is very likely, and that would be enough to push the Nasdaq Comp' to the giant 5k level. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$7, whilst Oil is trading broadly flat.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
*yeah, I'm late again.
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Right now, best case for the equity bears... the market doesn't make any new highs today, but really, that is pretty lame.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is still ticking lower, and at the current rate will see a bearish cross in about two days. So.. in theory.. we should see some degree of weakness no later than next Tuesday.
Retrace downside target remains sp'2065. Anything under 2050 looks highly unlikely for some.... months.
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Notable weakness, CHK, -2.4% in the $16s.... merely continuing to implode.. after recent poor earnings.
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US equities saw another day of mixed chop, but with notable new highs in the R2K (1239), and the Nasdaq Comp' (4989). Near term outlook still offers opportunity of a minor retrace to the sp'2060s, but from there.. a straight run into the sp'2250/350 zone looks likely by mid summer.
R2K, daily
Nasdaq Comp', daily
Summary
The giant psy' level of 5k looks viable tomorrow. Regardless.. a challenge of the more important 5132 peak of March 2000 looks due within the next month or two. Once we see a monthly close in the 5200s, it opens up a straight run to at least the 6000s.
With the ECB QE-pomo train set to arrive in the EU next month... there is zero reason why the equity bears should have any hope of a sig' correction for some months.
The elusive retrace
sp'daily3 - fib levels
Right now, the mid sp'2060s look the most viable level. By middle of next week, anything under the 50dma looks out of range.
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Closing update from Riley
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Looking ahead
Friday will see a quartet of data, GDP (rev'1), Chicago PMI (market expects 58), consumer sentiment, and pending homes sales.
*there is a trio of Fed officials speaking at a monetary conf. in NYC... Mr Market will be listening for any hints on rate rises this summer.
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