With US equities ending the week on a significantly bearish note, the VIX was back on the rise, settling + 8.5% @ 27.80 (intra high 29.47). Near term outlook is borderline, and will be dependent on whether the market can hold above the Tue' low of sp'1903.
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*the VIX saw a net weekly gain of 6.7%.
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VIX is now sustainably holding in the 20/30s... which we've not seen since late 2011.
If sp' loses the recent double low of 1867 - which seems almost inevitable at some point in late Sept/early Oct', then VIX will probably be exploding back into the 50s.. and beyond.
*I will be looking to pick up a significant VIX-long position in FOMC week.
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US equities ended the week on a very bearish note, sp -29pts @ 1921 (intra low 1911). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is borderline, if market can hold >1900, then 2000 into FOMC week, otherwise... the bull maniacs have a real problem.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: some significant short-stop cascade into the close... with perhaps a few brave bull maniacs chasing higher.. on hopes that we'll open higher next Tuesday
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.... and another wild week in market land come to a close.
Without question, a week for the bears
Best guess.. we still push higher to sp'2000... but that a major collapse wave is due after mid Sept'... regardless of whether the fed raise rates or not.
Good to hear from many of you this week :)
Get some rest across the three day holiday weekend!
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week
Regardless of the exact close, it has been another wild week in the US equity market, with the sp'500 set for a net weekly decline of around -3.5%. The only marginally bullish aspect is that this week saw a higher low of sp'1903. Broadly though.. this is a broken market, headed to the Oct'2014 low of 1820... and beyond.
sp'weekly1b
sp'60min
Summary
I'm getting tired... but I think we are all.. right?
Suffice to note, no matter the close, its a bearish end to a bearish week.
Regardless of ANY bounce next week.. and into the FOMC... this market is clearly broken. A grander collapse wave to the low sp'1700s remains a primary target into Oct'. I'll endeavour to catch that one.
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I will hold a micro AAPL-long position across the long weekend. That is obviously underwater, but its small enough that I ain't going to lose any sleep. With a product conf' next Wednesday, I'd have to imagine some degree of brief hysteria next Tue/Wed, which would make for an exit opportunity.
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Updates into the close... not least if we get a little closer to the 1903 low.... or >1920.
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3.15pm.. With the market vainly battling to break back into the 1920s.. AAPL has at least broken the downward trend..
15min
The 110s look out of range by the close.. but by next Wed' 112/113s is not overly bold.
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3.37pm.. Some kind of short-stop cascade underway.
US equities remain weak, with the sp -34pts @ 1916, with the VIX +12% in the 28.90s. Regardless of any minor wave higher into the close, the US markets are set to end a bearish week.. on a bearish note. If China/Asia have bad Mon/Tuesday sessions, the US market has a real problem at the Tuesday open.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*like the sp'500, there is a marginal break of the hourly trend of the VIX
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All the smaller 5/15/60min equity cycles are now on the low side.
Yet it remains a case that few traders will want to be buying into the weekend (although why didn't that thought occur to me yesterday afternoon?).
Anyway... there is a small chance that the algos might be able to do a short-stop cascade before the weekly close.. but even then, sp' is still set to close significantly lower, at least -20pts.
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AAPL remains stuck under the near term declining trend.
15min
$110s by the close are still possible, but I'm not exiting for that. I'll hold across into Tuesday.
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2.27pm.. sp'1912... VIX 29.40s..... and even though this is often a turn time in the day... right now.. it just looks lousy.
notable weakness: BABA -4.6% in the 63s....
Broadly, market seems increasingly concerned about next Monday's China open.
With very few buyers appearing, US equities are breaking new intraday lows, sp'1917.. a mere 0.7% above the critical Tue' low of 1903. It is increasingly a borderline situation.. ahead of the long holiday weekend. Metals remain weak, Gold -$5. Oil is -1.5% in the $45s.
sp'60min
Summary
*a marginal break of rising trend on the hourly cycle.
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It is seemingly a case that few want to get involved ahead of the long weekend.
The only issue for the rest of today, can the market at least close higher than the Tuesday low of sp'1903?
Best guess... yes.. but I sure ain't adding to the long side.
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The bigger weekly cycle looks plain ugly.
The only moderately bullish aspect is that we have a higher low.
US equities remain very weak, but the bears are so far unable to do any significant technical damage, from what are now a series of marginally higher lows from sp'1867. VIX is +9% in the 28s. Whilst the USD is broadly flat in the DXY 96.40s, commodities are weak, Gold -$4, with Oil -1.0% in the $46s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. we still ain't looking great.... and a net daily gain looks out of range.
However, the near term outlook remains unchanged. UP into FOMC week.
I realise the irony in that I'm the one calling for upside after yet another lousy market morning. Tis a twisted market.
*AAPL is offering a micro double floor in the low $109s...
... the 111s are still viable before the weekly close. Broader upside to the 114/116s looks more probable than not.
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VIX update from Mr R.
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time for some cheerleaders on clown finance TV. Will they be particularly twitchy into the long weekend?
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12.27pm.. so much for the earlier low.... sp'1918.. with VIX pushing upward.. 28s.
Next level remains the 1903 low.
notable strength, US bonds, TLT +1.0% in the $122.80s.. confirming the equity declines.
US equities are battling hard to hold above the early low of sp'1919 - a notably higher low from 1903. If the market can stabilise from here... talk will swing back toward the sp'2000 threshold. VIX remains positive, +7% in the 27s, but looks highly vulnerable to closing the week red.
sp'60min
Summary
Well, it sure ain't pretty.. but we do have a marginally higher low.
For those with broader downside aims... a new intra low <1919 is important today.
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notable weakness:
miners, GDX -1.9%.. with Gold -$7 and Silver -1.0%
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AAPL, 15min
Price action bodes for upside into the afternoon.. which itself is at least somewhat bullish for the broader market.
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11.06am.. Well, its prime time for a turn upward...
notable strength: airlines, DAL +1.4%, UAL +0.2%, lower oil is surely helping.
US equities open significantly lower, and the market is something of a war zone this morning, as the bears are screaming to break the recent key higher low of sp'1903.. whilst the bulls (should be) desperate for a net daily gain to wrap up a rough week.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*opening black-fail candle in the VIX... but now back to the highs...
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The line in the sand is pretty clear... 1903.
Despite the equity declines, the VIX really isn't showing much relative upside power.
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Yours truly is naturally somewhat focused on AAPL, which has already seen a wild swing from the mid 108s to mid 110s... and back to the 109s.
AAPL'15min
stay tuned!
10.04am.. I'm inherently biased, but I see stocks like AAPL turning positive today.... with a red VIX.
I'm wearing my flak jacket.. in the trenches... and I'm still expecting to come out of this latest trade positive.
10.24am... sp'1927.... market battling to build a floor.. with a marginally higher low (seen better on hourly chart).
VIX 27s... but that could easily turn red today.... not least as vol' will likely decline into the afternoon.
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notable weakness, copper miners, FCX -5%.. TCK -6%.. the fractionally higher USD is not helping commodities.
Good morning. Equity futures are significantly lower (ahead of the jobs data), sp -24pts, we're set to open at 1927. A net daily gain in the 1950/60s will be rather important to wrap up what has been a somewhat turbulent week.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Well... it sure ain't a pretty pre-market for those long (including yours truly). We're set to open barely 1% above the key Tue' low of 1903.
Best guess... the market battles higher from here... with a net daily gain, and I realise some will roll their eyes at that outlook.
Yet how many times have we seen the market open lower on jobs Friday, only to close net higher? In any case.. today will not be dull, ahead of the 3 day holiday weekend.
early movers...
AAPL -0.9% in the $109.30s
NFLX -4% in the 96s... with a decisive fail of the $100 threshold
TSLA -1.5% in the 242s
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Update from Oscar
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Have a good Friday.
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7.24am... sp -20pts... so we're back to 1931.
VIX instruments: TVIX (2x long) +7.5%... XIV (1x short) -3.5%
Still an hour until jobs data though...
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7.57am.... meanwhile....
time to shop... back soon
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8.31am.. Monthly jobs: 173k net job gains , with a headline rate of 5.1%
Frankly, its a lousy number for the macro econ-bulls.
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Equity indexes... twitchy, sp -20pts.. 1931
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8.53am.. ohoh, we have a snap lower.. .sp -35pts... 1916... just 13pts away from a key break.
There is rising support around 1918 at the open... anything <1915.. would be decisive.
sp -30pts... 1921.
Long day ahead!
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9.13am.. sp -27pts... 1924.... 1% away from the key higher low of 1903.
One thing is for sure... we ain't going quietly into the weekend.
notable weakness: NFLX -3.7% in the $97s.
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9.39am.. opening black-fail candle in the VIX..... bears beware... they play out more often than not
Considering the market mood and price drop... the VIX is only +5%.
9.42am.. VIX candle remains black.... with sp'1930
9.46am.. Reversal candles appearing all over the place... inc' AAPL.
The week is set to conclude with the monthly jobs data, and with Thursday already having seen another sig' downward swing from sp'1975 to 1944 - settling @ 1951, from a pure cyclical perspective, the market is set to rally into the weekend.
sp'weekly
Trans, weekly
Summary
*it won't take much to push the Trans' net higher for the week, and with two consecutive net weekly gains - with spike floors, it would bode for at least another week or two higher in the rest of the market.
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Equity bulls will clearly struggle to turn the current weekly candle for the sp'500 positive by the Friday close, but there is still a rather clear spike floor of 1903 - a notable higher low.
All things considered, market should battle upward into the weekend, and across much of next week. The sp'2000 threshold looks a somewhat easy target.
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Looking ahead
Friday will be all about the jobs data.. market is expecting net job gains of 223k, with a marginally lower headline jobless rate of 5.2%.
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*I hold a micro AAPL-long position overnight, seeking an exit in the $112s before the holiday weekend.
It was a day of swings for US equities, with the sp'500 settling +2pts @
1951 (range 1975/1944). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and
-0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside.. at least
to test the psy' level of 2000 next week.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
Little to add.
US equities look set to battle broadly upward into FOMC week. First target is the sp'2000 threshold, with the market likely to max out somewhere within the 2010/2050 zone.
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*I hold AAPL-long overnight, seeking an exit into the weekend.
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