VIX holds up

Whilst US equities closed with moderate gains, the VIX held up relatively well, settling -0.4% @ 15.09 (intra low 14.81). There is viable renewed equity downside, which will offer VIX 17/18s... by the Friday close. The big 20 threshold remains a tough level to break/hold.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

All things considered, the fact the VIX held up so well (relatively) was one of the most notable aspects of today.

Equity bulls should be at least 'mildly' concerned with this discrepancy.
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Primary downside target for the equity bears should be the sp'2040/30 zone.. where the 200dma will be lurking next week. That is 'best case' though... and if Friday closes in the 2100s.. bears should probably scrub any hope of that.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +7pts @ 2088 (intra low 2074). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is very mixed, and will be dependent upon how the monthly jobs data is interpreted. Best guess... another rollover... before further upside.


sp'60min

Summary

... a bit of a mixed day of moderate upside.

The open was a bit of a mess... with a minor washout to 2074.. before battling slowly higher into the afternoon.

Market will be highly vulnerable to a snap lower tomorrow... the key level for the bears to break under will be sp'2067.
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The smaller 5/15min cycles are offering a bull flag for tomorrow morning.. so there is a sig' threat for anyone holding short overnight.. but what else is new.. right?

*I am content to be on the sidelines overnight.. having dropped GLD-short this morning.
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more later, on the VIX

3pm update - maxed out... probably

US equity indexes appear to have maxed out at sp'2092. A touch of weakness into the close looks likely, with a viable snap lower on the monthly jobs data. With the USD +0.6%, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$8. Oil continues to weaken, -2.8%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

... updates into the close...
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*I have eyes on FXI... but remain a little concerned about an overnight gain.. which would not be the best thing to wake up to tomorrow morning.

In any case.. the Shanghai comp' looks set for 4K.... which is another 2.5% lower.
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notable weakness: DISCA -2.4%.... bigger daily/monthly charts look bearish.
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3.15pm... Market remains stuck... as everyone is wondering not just what the data will be tomorrow morning, but far more difficult to fathom.... how will the market interpret it...

Ohh.. and by the way...

Does anyone know how to place a trade?
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3.32pm... Market chop.. .sp'2087... a touch weaker...

Watching FXI... its been flat lining across the day... as things are, I'm not in the mood to hold short overnight.. not least with the hourly cycle threatening one or two up days.. before renewed downside.

Will reassess tomorrow...
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Overall though.. lots of bear flags all over the place.. including Gold...      I just hope to ride the wave lower when it breaks <$1130. In theory.. it should happen within the next few weeks.
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3.46pm.. VIX turns positive.... with sp'2086..... first hint of tomorrow?

Oil -3.0%... not helping energy stocks!  SDRL -6.6%
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... well, micro 5/15min cycles are offering a bull flag....  but I ain't buying it.

back at the close.

2pm update - VIX is holding up well

Whilst equity indexes are holding moderate gains, sp +9pts @ 2089, the VIX is trading flat in the low 15s. There remains high probability of another wave lower... and the excuse for tomorrow could be 'good news is bad news'. Metals remain weak, Gold -$8. Oil continues to slide, -2.6%.


VIX'60min

sp'60min

Summary

We might well have a turn underway... with VIX set to turn positive, and equities cooling into the close.
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*I am looking to the next trade... China-short is a valid short term trade...

FXI' 15min

For now... I'm content to watch.. but there is viable downside to the 47s. To be considered this hour.

As ever.. typical turn time is 2.30pm... so I'll be especially watching the smaller 5/15min cycles.

1pm update - early afternoon chop

US equities are holding moderate gains, with the sp +11pts @ 2092. VIX is naturally cooling, -1% in the upper 14s. Metals are weak, Gold -$9, and Silver -1.1%. Oil is significantly cooling -2.2%.. back under the $60 threshold.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Yesterday saw some notable technical damage.. with two key lows - sp'2077 and 72 being taken out.

Right now.. I find it difficult to see the market not rolling over somewhere in the 2095/2100 zone... first soft downside would be 2050.

The obvious 'best bearish case' would be a test of the rising 200dma.. but that is out of range until at least next Tue/Wed.
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notable weakness, copper miners, FCX/TCK, both lower by around -2%.

strength: BABA +7.1%... holding sig' gains, although the daily candle is a big black-fail one.. and those often don't end so well.

12pm update - holding moderate gains

US equity indexes are holding moderate gains, having swung from an early low of sp'2074 to 2089. A daily/weekly close in the 2100s currently looks unlikely. With the USD +0.5%, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$8, with Silver -1.1%. Oil is in cooling mode, -1.8%


sp'60min

GLD, 60min'2

Summary

*metals remain weak, but if the USD cools tomorrow (for whatever reason) there will be another wave higher.. which I would likely re-short.. but on Monday.
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So, we're moderately higher, but Mr Market looks highly vulnerable. The sp'500 really shouldn't go much above 2088/90... where the 50dma is lurking.
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notable strength: BABA +7.1%, but sig' below the opening high.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time to cook.. or something

11am update - battling upward

US equities are battling hard for minor gains, but overall market mood remains somewhat unsettled, and there remains high probability of a major sell down on the Friday jobs data. With the USD +0.6%, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$10. Oil is similarly on the slide, -2.2%.


sp'60min

GLD'60min2

Summary

*Having exited a GLD-short earlier, I'm looking for a re-entry.. but I might just not get a better level. Oh well.
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So... we're battling upward right now.. but things don't feel so great in market land... not least after the last two days.. as also supported via very weak EU/Asia markets.

On balance.. we're still set to fall into the weekend.
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notable cooling in BABA....

A rather classic opening black-fail candle... and for those watching the open.. the smart ones will have already bailed, not least as the broader market still looks vulnerable.

As I often say... black-fail candles are not to be dismissed lightly! (even when earnings were good)
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time to shop... back soon!


11.32am  sp +8pts @ 2088.... hmm... latter day weakness remains very viable... or a simple gap lower on the Friday open. For now.. market is moving into holding pattern...

Oil remains notably weak, -1.8%...  and that is not helping energy stocks., SDRL -4%

10am update - opening chop

US equities open with some mixed chop. With the USD +0.5% in the DXY 94.50s, the metals are moderately weak, Gold -$5. Oil has seen a strong early reversal, now -1.4%.


sp'60min

Summary

A bit of a messy open, broadly the market 'should' see another net daily decline, but clearly.. there are dip buyers out there.

Right now, the sp'2040/30 zone looks a long way down, but it is viable in the current down wave.

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GLD, 15min

*I exited a GLD short at the open... minor gain... will consider a re-short on any bounce into the afternoon.

What I'm really seeking is a trade when Gold breaks under the Nov' low of $1130. That is viable at any time... not least with price structure as it is.
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notable gains, BABA +7.8% @$86s... starting to cool from the opening high of $89.71.


10.30am Continued minor weak chop... no buyers >sp'2080.

Metals seeing renewed weakness, Gold -$8... with Silver -1.0%

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pts, we're set to open at 2081. Metals are weak, Gold -$6, holding within a large bearish H/S formation. Oil is holding moderate gains of 0.8%.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly7

Summary

*it is notable that the weekly 'rainbow' cycle is now offering a bearish red candle, although the equity bears have been regularly teased this year.
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It is election day here in the UK, naturally, the media are largely silent about it... as they are ordered to be. The result should be clear by 6pm EST today.
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Overnight futures were as low as sp -14pts a little earlier, which would have marginally taken out yesterdays low. Instead, we're seeing an early bounce.. as clown finance TV report that fed official Evans says no rate hikes until 2016.

Equity bears need at least a moderately lower close today to have any realistic hope of hitting the 2040/30 zone in the current down wave from 2125.

*USD is +0.3%, and that will help to put some downward pressure on the market today. Clearly though, the bigger reaction will come tomorrow morning.
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Earnings...

BABA, EPS 48 cents vs 42 exp.  Rev' beat too, stock +10% @ $88.

WFM, EPS inline @ 43 cents, rev' a touch light, market using the latter as an excuse to sell the stock lower by a sig' -13%.

TSLA, loss per share was better than expected. In Wed' AH, the stock traded higher in the low $240s, but this morning is selling lower as increasingly more are talking about how it is over-valued... currently -2.6% @ $224.
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Good wishes for Thursday trading
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8.50am Futures are weakening, sp -6pts, to 2074.

*Gold is -$10.... I will probably drop that (short position).... shortly after the open. 

9.36am.. EXITED GLD-short from 113.90...... not as great as I hoped... but its a gain.

King Dollar continues to slide

The USD continues to slide, net lower for the fourth consecutive week. Primary target zone of the DXY 93/92s is now being hit, with the secondary target of 90/89 seemingly probable by mid June. Regardless of where the USD floors within the near term... the 120s are the grander target, and that is indeed a very long way higher.


USD, weekly

USD, monthly3, with outlook

Summary

It is pleasing to see the first target zone already effectively hit.. and it is still only early May.

A 1-2 week bounce is possible at any time - back to the DXY 95/96s... but in any case... it would now seem the secondary target zone of 90/89 is probable in this retrace from the recent peak of 100.71.
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China still cooling

A second day lower for the Shanghai comp'...

The SSEC looks set for the 4K psy' level within the near term.. it should hold there, before an attempt to break new highs in June/July.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, and consumer credit (3pm).

Market will likely see continued underlying weakness, ahead of the Friday monthly jobs data.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -9pts @ 2080 (intra low 2067). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish to the 2040/30 zone before the weekend. There still remains significant threat of marginal new highs in late May/early June.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*the two leaders are still leading the way lower... although both saw notable moderate net daily gains.
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With the loss of sp'2072, there is effectively empty air to at least 2050, if not as likely... 2040/30 zone, where the 200dma will be lurking this Friday morning.

Near term bearish.. but viable new historic highs (in some.. but not necessarily all indexes) by early June.

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a little more later...