VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add
The big 20 threshold looks out of range... and VIX has probably maxed out today in the low 17s.. along with sp' flooring at 2039.
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more later.. on the indexes
Wednesday, 11 March 2015
VIX claws a little higher
Whilst the US equity market saw a marginal new low of sp'2039, the VIX was generally stuck.. settling +1.1% @ 16.87 (intra high 17.19). Near term outlook is for renewed equity upside into the weekly close, which will probably equate to VIX in the 15.25/14.50 zone.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add
The big 20 threshold looks out of range... and VIX has probably maxed out today in the low 17s.. along with sp' flooring at 2039.
--
more later.. on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add
The big 20 threshold looks out of range... and VIX has probably maxed out today in the low 17s.. along with sp' flooring at 2039.
--
more later.. on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp -3pts @ 2040 (intra low 2039). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers a rally to the sp'2070/80s within the next 2-3 trading days.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour was surprisingly weak, with another fractionally lower low. Overall though, we're still due a rally in the near term.
--
A rather tedious day, but one which does make for an initial turn day.
Overall, the sp'2070/80s look a viable target level by the Friday close, before a retrace of some degree early next Mon/Tuesday.
--
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour was surprisingly weak, with another fractionally lower low. Overall though, we're still due a rally in the near term.
--
A rather tedious day, but one which does make for an initial turn day.
Overall, the sp'2070/80s look a viable target level by the Friday close, before a retrace of some degree early next Mon/Tuesday.
--
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - upside into the close
US equities look set for moderate net daily gains, with a viable daily close in the low sp'2050s. VIX looks set to close a touch red in the 16s. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -1.5%. Oil remains weak, -0.7%.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
So... yes... we probably have a floor of sp'2040.. along with a VIX cycle high of 17.19.
There is viable upside to the 2070/80s by the Friday close, although realise some would be highly dismissive of that scenario.
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Notable strength: TSLA +2.5%
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3.26pm Despite a touch of weakness to sp'2042... the R2K/Trans are not showing any problems... and it still bodes for upside into the weekend.
3.40pm.. I realise some will be getting spooked right now, but really.. the Trans/R2K are NOT confirming the move. The VIX is a little higher...but remains relatively subdued.
notable weakness, AAPL -1.6%... that is not helping the broader market.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
So... yes... we probably have a floor of sp'2040.. along with a VIX cycle high of 17.19.
There is viable upside to the 2070/80s by the Friday close, although realise some would be highly dismissive of that scenario.
-
Notable strength: TSLA +2.5%
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3.26pm Despite a touch of weakness to sp'2042... the R2K/Trans are not showing any problems... and it still bodes for upside into the weekend.
3.40pm.. I realise some will be getting spooked right now, but really.. the Trans/R2K are NOT confirming the move. The VIX is a little higher...but remains relatively subdued.
notable weakness, AAPL -1.6%... that is not helping the broader market.
2pm update - the battle continues
US equities are battling to hold the earlier low of sp'2040. There is notable significant strength in the Transports, +1.0%. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$9, with Silver -2.0%. Oil is similarly weak, -2.2%.
sp'60min
Trans, daily
Summary
*yesterday saw a notable break of rising trend in the Transports, and it remains the only key break the bears have achieved this year.
--
VIX has just broken into the 17s.. which is ironic considering the minor chop in the main market.
sp'60min
Trans, daily
Summary
*yesterday saw a notable break of rising trend in the Transports, and it remains the only key break the bears have achieved this year.
--
VIX has just broken into the 17s.. which is ironic considering the minor chop in the main market.
1pm update - market battling to climb
US equities remain in chop mode, but there is a somewhat obvious attempt in progress to retake the sp'2050s. VIX remains subdued. Metals are weak, Gold -$11.. set to lose the Nov' low of $1130. Oil remains weak, -2.1%
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Not much to add.. on what is arguably a turn day. Yes.. we broke a lower low today of sp'2040, but really.. market looks exhausted on the downside.
A bounce into the 2070/80s looks VERY probable.. and if we see a short-stop cascade.. then those levels are viable into the Friday close.
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Notable strength: INTC +3.0%
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Not much to add.. on what is arguably a turn day. Yes.. we broke a lower low today of sp'2040, but really.. market looks exhausted on the downside.
A bounce into the 2070/80s looks VERY probable.. and if we see a short-stop cascade.. then those levels are viable into the Friday close.
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Notable strength: INTC +3.0%
12pm update - chop chop
Equities are in minor chop mode... ahead of what will probably be a move into the sp'2070/80s. as early as the Friday close. VIX remains similarly stuck.. although did fractionally break above the Tuesday high. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, with Silver having broken a new multi-year low.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*metals remain within a starkly bearish down trend... the strong dollar is not helping.
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So... minor gains... but a daily close in the 2050s remains very much within range.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for tea... back at 1pm
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*metals remain within a starkly bearish down trend... the strong dollar is not helping.
--
So... minor gains... but a daily close in the 2050s remains very much within range.
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VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea... back at 1pm
11am update - renewed weakness
The opening gains fail to hold, and most indexes are breaking new cycle lows, with the sp' @ 2040. VIX remains hovering around the Tuesday high.. a failure to break/close in the 17s would bode well for the bulls. Metals remain very weak, Gold -$8, with Silver -2.0%. Oil remains weak, -2.4%
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*Oil inventories came in much lower than last week at 4 million barrels, but its not enough to inspire the oil traders. Further, the USD strength is a constant downward pressure... as it is for the precious metals.
--
Price action is much stronger than yesterday (not least with stocks like INTC +3.6%), we appear to be seeing just a minor washout wave.
Equity bulls merely need to retake the 2050s... opening up a break of the down trend for tomorrow.
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Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, SDRL -2.6%
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It is typical turn time of course... so.. lets see if the bull maniacs can push this back into the 2050/55 zone by 2pm... I'm guessing they will.
11.15am.. VIX turns red... with sp'2046....
Metals continue to unravel... Gold -$12.... Silver breaks a new multi-year low.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*Oil inventories came in much lower than last week at 4 million barrels, but its not enough to inspire the oil traders. Further, the USD strength is a constant downward pressure... as it is for the precious metals.
--
Price action is much stronger than yesterday (not least with stocks like INTC +3.6%), we appear to be seeing just a minor washout wave.
Equity bulls merely need to retake the 2050s... opening up a break of the down trend for tomorrow.
-
Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, SDRL -2.6%
-
It is typical turn time of course... so.. lets see if the bull maniacs can push this back into the 2050/55 zone by 2pm... I'm guessing they will.
11.15am.. VIX turns red... with sp'2046....
Metals continue to unravel... Gold -$12.... Silver breaks a new multi-year low.
10am update - mixed open
US equities open with some mixed chop, but equity bulls look set to see a bullish MACD cross before the end of today. A break of the down trend looks highly probable by midday Thursday. Metals are weak, Gold -$5... on its way to breaking a new multi-year low (<$1130).
sp'60min
GLD, weekly'3
Summary
*the strong dollar sure isn't helping the metals. The above 'best guess' wave count for Gold looks on track. I'm broadly in agreement with Armstrong (although he doesn't do any wave count nonsense). If I'm right about a sub'3... then we should just keep falling into late spring.
--
So... its not the most exciting of opens..., but still... a turn/floor building day would be pretty natural.
For the wave counters out there.... we do have a rather clear 5 waves lower, and in theory... we should battle upward from here... at least into the Friday close. Indeed, a weekly close in the 2070//80s looks very viable.
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Notable strength: INTC +2.7%... on its way to the $40s.... just a case of how long it takes.... not if.
10.31am.. Oil inventories.. surplus of around 4 million barrels... not great.... but somewhat better.
Oil still -1.6% on the day.
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10.36am.. Fractional new index low sp'2043... Hmmm.... as ever.. VIX remains subdued... still stuck in the mid 16s.
INTC powering upward.... +3.7%....
sp'60min
GLD, weekly'3
Summary
*the strong dollar sure isn't helping the metals. The above 'best guess' wave count for Gold looks on track. I'm broadly in agreement with Armstrong (although he doesn't do any wave count nonsense). If I'm right about a sub'3... then we should just keep falling into late spring.
--
So... its not the most exciting of opens..., but still... a turn/floor building day would be pretty natural.
For the wave counters out there.... we do have a rather clear 5 waves lower, and in theory... we should battle upward from here... at least into the Friday close. Indeed, a weekly close in the 2070//80s looks very viable.
-
Notable strength: INTC +2.7%... on its way to the $40s.... just a case of how long it takes.... not if.
10.31am.. Oil inventories.. surplus of around 4 million barrels... not great.... but somewhat better.
Oil still -1.6% on the day.
-
10.36am.. Fractional new index low sp'2043... Hmmm.... as ever.. VIX remains subdued... still stuck in the mid 16s.
INTC powering upward.... +3.7%....
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are on the rebound, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2049. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, whilst Oil -0.1%. King Dollar continues to soar... whilst the Euro slips to 1.05.
sp'60min
Summary
So... we're set to open a little higher, but the bulls will need a daily close >2065 to break the down trend... that won't be easy.
As ever... eyes on the VIX, it should remain firmly <17, and start melting lower... a close in the 15s would be useful to those looking for renewed equity upside.
We're set to get a bullish MACD cross on the hourly cycle... late today or at the Thursday open. That should offer the sp'2070/80s by the Friday close.
--
Update from Oscar
I don't think the ES will hit the 2020s in the near term... we've likely already floored.
--
Have a good Wednesday
9.40am. R2K, Nasdaq turn red... but so is the VIX.
Overall.. lacklustre open for the bulls... but at the current rate, bulls still set to get a bullish hourly MACD turn BEFORE the end of today.
sp'60min
Summary
So... we're set to open a little higher, but the bulls will need a daily close >2065 to break the down trend... that won't be easy.
As ever... eyes on the VIX, it should remain firmly <17, and start melting lower... a close in the 15s would be useful to those looking for renewed equity upside.
We're set to get a bullish MACD cross on the hourly cycle... late today or at the Thursday open. That should offer the sp'2070/80s by the Friday close.
--
Update from Oscar
I don't think the ES will hit the 2020s in the near term... we've likely already floored.
--
Have a good Wednesday
9.40am. R2K, Nasdaq turn red... but so is the VIX.
Overall.. lacklustre open for the bulls... but at the current rate, bulls still set to get a bullish hourly MACD turn BEFORE the end of today.
Increasing concern in currency land
The Euro/$ settled the day -1.4% @ 1.0697... and this is causing increasing concern within the broader capital markets. €/$ parity - within the near term, would be a real problem for the equity bulls, opening up a test of the 200dma.. now @ sp'2001.
Euro, weekly
USD, monthly'1, 15yr
sp'daily'1
Summary
*its late... and I'm tired... so this will be brief..
--
Euro looks vulnerable to a panic down cycle, if parity is lost against the USD... opening the door to the low 0.80s.
Meanwhile, King $ grows stronger almost every day.. and the giant 100 DXY level approaches... from there... 120.. and eventually (given a year or two)... 160s.
As for equities... with the daily close <2050 (a surprise to me), market is now vulnerable to further downside to the sp'2k threshold. All things considered though... I'm guessing we see at least some degree of upside into the weekly close. A great deal will now depend upon how the market copes with Yellen next Wednesday afternoon.
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Looking ahead
The only things of note scheduled for Wednesday are the EIA oil report.. along with US treasury budget data.
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Goodnight from London
Euro, weekly
USD, monthly'1, 15yr
sp'daily'1
Summary
*its late... and I'm tired... so this will be brief..
--
Euro looks vulnerable to a panic down cycle, if parity is lost against the USD... opening the door to the low 0.80s.
Meanwhile, King $ grows stronger almost every day.. and the giant 100 DXY level approaches... from there... 120.. and eventually (given a year or two)... 160s.
As for equities... with the daily close <2050 (a surprise to me), market is now vulnerable to further downside to the sp'2k threshold. All things considered though... I'm guessing we see at least some degree of upside into the weekly close. A great deal will now depend upon how the market copes with Yellen next Wednesday afternoon.
-
Looking ahead
The only things of note scheduled for Wednesday are the EIA oil report.. along with US treasury budget data.
-
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities closed broadly weak, sp -35pts @ 2044, with a notable close under the 50dma of 2061. The
two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.2% respectively. Near
term outlook is offering a key floor... with renewed upside into next
week's FOMC.
sp'daily5
Dow
Trans
Summary
*Transports is the weakest index, and we have a clear break of the rising trend from last October.
--
I had expected Tuesday weakness to the sp'2065/60 zone... the daily close under the 2050 threshold was something of a surprise. Perhaps most notable though, the VIX is not reflecting any particular concern in the market.
In the immediate term, there is viable further downside to the 2030/20 zone.. but hourly cycles are offering a bullish MACD cross later tomorrow. On balance.. the situation favours the bulls into the weekly close.
-
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Dow
Trans
Summary
*Transports is the weakest index, and we have a clear break of the rising trend from last October.
--
I had expected Tuesday weakness to the sp'2065/60 zone... the daily close under the 2050 threshold was something of a surprise. Perhaps most notable though, the VIX is not reflecting any particular concern in the market.
In the immediate term, there is viable further downside to the 2030/20 zone.. but hourly cycles are offering a bullish MACD cross later tomorrow. On balance.. the situation favours the bulls into the weekly close.
-
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
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