Wednesday 30 October 2013

Volatility a touch higher

With the main indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX naturally closed a little to the upside, settling  +1.8% @ 13.75. Near term, the VIX looks set to remain in the low/mid teens. Certainly, if the main equity market can hold above sp'1700, VIX will remain <20 for the remainder of the year.




*some notable 'kooky spikes' on today's charts - no doubt, an algo-bot went 'crazy' a few times, but the exchanges might erase those spikes in the next day or two.

VIX looks set to remain in the low/mid teens in the near term, even if the sp' can manage some weakness to the low 1730s.

I certainly can't see the VIX breaking above the key 20 threshold any time soon, and probably not until mid/late Jan' of 2014.

more later..on those indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the sp -8pts @ 1763, having earlier peaked at a new high of 1775. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, saw particular weakness, closing -0.6% and -1.5% respectively. Near term weakness to the sp'1730s seems viable, before another wave higher.



Well, that's another FOMC out of the way..just one more left of this year (Wed' Dec'18)..and I sure don't expect any change then either.

Equity bulls have QE fuel of $85bn until at least early 2014..and 'significant QE' across ALL of next year.

Frankly, all those expecting (or rather...hoping) for a major decline before year end..just need to take a serious break.

The usual bits and pieces across the evening...

UPDATE 4.10pm

FB soars 15%, +$ the 56/57s, on much better earnings.

4.58pm... FB cooling down a bit.. +$4 @ $53.50, that is still a significant gain of 8/9%. I'd have to guess it'll be trading in the 54/55s tomorrow morning.

5.42pm.. FB is upsetting a few in the earnings call, the stock has lost all the gains..and even flipped moderately red into the $48s.

Still, the numbers were good, but the earlier high of 56/57 now looks a very long way up..and unattainable tomorrow.

3pm update - closing hour weakness

The main indexes are moderately lower, after the FOMC decided to change nothing (such a surprise!). It would seem reasonable to look for the sp' to slip lower to the 1730s across the next few 2-4 trading days, before renewed powerful upside across Nov/Dec.




*the spikes on the VIX remain odd. It'd seem an algo-bot went crazy, and put out a VIX quote matching the recent high in the 21s.

With the FOMC out of the way, things are again clearer..and simpler.

1775 looks to be the immediate term top...with a minor retracement, down to around 1730. On any basis..sub 1700s do NOT look viable in the near term...nor..the remainder of the year.

Interesting action in the metals...with conflicting short/mid/long term cycles.

3.14pm.. FB earnings at the close...currently -1%

FB, daily

Hard to call this one, but broad trend is clearly to the upside.

3.32pm.. sp'1664, and despite the 'we're off the lows of the day' mantra on clown finance TV, market does look set for a few percent lower.

Regardless of any fall of 1% or so tomorrow, the big monthly index charts will close the month bullish.

*NFLX and TSLA having problems. The latter looks doomed to $110/100.. one to watch!

3.43pm...Equity bears can note the weakness in the two leaders , trans/R2K, both down around 1%.

The headline indexes should follow tomorrow/Friday. Target remains sp'1730s.

back at the close :)

2pm update - it wasn't called QE infinity for nothing

QE of $85bn, along with an effective zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) looks set to continue into next spring. Equities are tricky to call here, there is distinct opportunity for a 'sell the news' event, down to the 1750/30s into early November, yet the broader trend still remains starkly bullish.



Well, lets see what the printing maniacs have to say.

*I'm still not clear on whether the Bernanke is due to do a press conf', doesn't look like it.

First key support is the daily 10Ma, in the low 1750s. after that..the gap zone in the low 1730s.

I simply can't see the market <1700 for the remainder of this year whilst the QE fuel continues to be pumped into the market.

For the gold bugs out there...could be some major moves about to occur...

GLD, daily

Current daily candle is a black-fail, bearish candle. Yet...we've still two hours left. A closing gain of $25/30 would confirm a continued move to the low 140s.

..standing by!

2.03pm... no taper...what a surprise. ..../s

2.09pm.. some true comedy on clown finance TV..with liesman talking about 'unlimited gasoline' for jet plane that we're all flying aboard.

He is right of course...there is NO limit to what the Fed can print. I'm stlll bemused how many bears are still in denial about that.

Indexes holding together..and now offering a bull flag on the hourly chart into the close.

2.14pm.. VIX showing a market that is calm... (those spikes remain...odd).

Looks like equity bears had their chance..and simply no downside power.

2.20pm..twitchy market..and we just actually got a snap to the downside!


Gods help us all!

2.30pm... It would seem we're headed for the low 1730s..within the near term. However you want to count this nonsense, 1775 now looks like a pre-FOMC spike-top..and a minor retracement of 40/45pts...barely 2.5% now underway.

As I've noted a few times lately..the VERY worse thing now..selling on the FOMC news...sucking in all the bears...overly hysterical about the 'big fall'...only for the market to hold the low 1700s..before renewed upside across Nov/Dec.

What is clear...QE continues..and we know what that broadly means for equities.

2.40pm..choppy, with the sp'1761.   Best guess remains..we'll trundle lower..across a few days to the low 1730s.

I realise many will be touting major bear doom tonight, but really, I..just can't see it..whilst the QE fuel continues..which will surely be all the way into spring which point we're looking at sp'2000s.


1pm update - awaiting the Fed

With an hour to go until the FOMC announcement, the indexes are seeing minor chop. It remains incredible to see the sp' at such levels. Metals are holding gains, with Gold +$9. Oil is weak, -1.1% (bullish transport stocks!). VIX is holding gains of 5%.




*note the old leader appears to be offering a rollover, target would be the 6800s, which might equate to sp'1730/10..certainly..not <1700.

Lots of interesting individual stock moves out there today.

TSLA, with the recent break <160, I have to assume that one is still broadly bearish in the near term, and the obvious target zone is 110/100.

AAPL holding gains, but really, with the Fed of the day will likely see some major moves.

12pm update - minor down cycle

The main indexes have slipped moderately lower, with the sp' swinging from 1775 to 1766. Considering the daily and weekly cycles, equity bears need to be mindful of a renewed push higher into the 1780/90s later today..on renewed mainstream hysteria that 'the Fed has the markets back'.





*VIX is creeping higher, and we have some kooky spikes on the 5min chart. Most bearish (equity side) for the close, 15.75/16.25

Best case downside for the bears by the close are the low 1750s, but really, that will arguably be more difficult until after a blow-off spike higher into the 1785/95 zone.

The lower gap zone of the low sp'1730s looks to be the 'best the bears can get' in early November.

VIX update from Mr T.

time for lunch !

11am update - morning churn

The main indexes have seen a micro down cycle...enough to kick a few equity bulls out, and draw in some very pre-emptive equity bears. As ever, a fed day can be tricky, but trend clearly...remains to the upside. Metals holding gains, Oil remains particularly weak, -1.3%



*clown TV seems more concerned with the 'rivetting' coverage of Sebelius on Obamacare, than on the markets.

Interesting strength being seen in AAPL.

I don't expect 540s today though, but you can see, the general trend of the last few months is one of battling back higher.

stay tuned :)

11.27am.. another micro-down cycle, and sp is -0.15%.. truly..collapsing.

Hourly support will be 1755 by end of day.

10am update - a spike to the 1790s?

The indexes open moderately higher, with many breaking new historic highs. Precious metals are showing gains - Gold +$12, ahead of the FOMC, where the mainstream will likely fully come to realise there will be no QE reduction until spring 2014..if 'ever'. Oil is weak, -0.9%



*note the upper bol' on the daily, which has jumped to 1795.

If the market gets overly hysterical about the FOMC later, that will be the target for a brief blow-off hyper-spike ramp.

Retracement to the 50 day MA ?

Equity bulls should keep in mind the rising 50day MA..that should offer good support in the low 1700s across November. I'm guessing it will indeed hold, with renewed melt higher into early/mid December.

Long day ahead...

Stock of the day..(so far)...

GRMN, daily

stay tuned!

10.25am.. micro down cycle. Should see support at 1668..before levelling out around 11am or so.

15min cycle looks bizarre, 5 solid days of relentless algo-bot melt.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are slightly higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open around 1775 (ohh the humanity, when will it stop?). Today is a big day, with the FOMC announcement at 2pm. A hyper-spike is viable..along with a reversal. Metals are higher, gold +$8, whilst Oil is weak, -0.7%




*ADP jobs: 130k, slightly weaker than expected, but hey, that means QE continues, right? We're back to the bad news is good news situation.

Rather than focus on the hourly to start the day..consider the upper bollinger on the daily/weekly charts...

Daily offering 1788
Weekly offering 1773.

However, the daily will likely jump to 1790/95 at the open for statistical reasons. Similarly, the weekly might jump to 1775.

There is real risk of a spike high today in the 1785/95 zone, before a VERY SEVERE reversal to the downside..with a close in the 1750s.

Although I do not expect sub' 1700s for the rest of year, regardless of how strong todays reversal might be..and thats assuming we even get one.

Notable movers: GRMN, +5.7% @ $50.80 (on earnings..I guess). That is a $100 stock..along with STX.

VIdeo update from Mr Permabull

Have a good day everyone...things should get interesting around 2pm

Equity bulls need Dow 15800s

The Dow has been lagging the main market for many months. Those equity bulls seeking continued 'straight up' upside into spring 2014, should be seeking a weekly close in the Dow 15800s. That will be enough to confirm the market is in a new accelerated bullish phase.

Dow' weekly

Dow'monthly'2, rainbow


I'll focus on the Dow for today's closing post. The Dow has been very laggy - relative to the main market for almost half a year.

Today's daily close of 15680 was a new historic high, and sets up a weekly close of 15700/800s. If that is achieved, it opens the door to a further 750/1000pts higher by year end.

Yes, a year close in 16500/750 zone, that would be the target..if the market can 'cope' with whatever the FOMC have to say tomorrow.

In terms of the sp', that would equate to a brief foray into the I noted a month or two ago.

RE: the charts

The weekly Dow chart isn't even positive on the MACD cycle yet. There is significant potential for another few weeks higher, if not into mid December (I'm still guessing end year profit taking).

The big monthly rainbow chart is now back to green..outright bullish, and the past six trading months could merely be a giant bull flag. If would be 17500 by late spring 2014

..and that ladies and gentleman would equate to somewhere in the sp'2000/2200 zone, the stuff of bear nightmares.

Looking ahead

Tomorrow will obviously be all about the FOMC announcement, due at 2pm. I'm not sure if the Bernanke will do a press conf. Regardless, I don't expect any policy changes, merely an even longer press release, filled with more nonsense about '...will do what is necessary to achieve both policy mandates'.

*there is no sig' QE-pomo until at least Friday.

Well, I think that will suffice for today. As ever, if you like the postings..spread the word, especially if you are a fellow webmaster/blogger.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed generally higher, with the sp +9pts @ 1771. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed up 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. The market is clearly over-stretched in the immediate term, although a final hyper-spike into the 1790s is briefly viable tomorrow.




Even the laggy Dow managed a gain of 0.7%, to 15680..a new historic closing high.

I continue to hold that the equity bulls need to see a weekly close in the 15800s to really clarify that the market is set for a free run into next spring..if not late 2015. More on that later though.

Suffice to say about was just another day in market land. The fact the Nasdaq was having more 'tech issues' only added to the feeling that its merely 'situation normal' in market land.

We're way past the 'twilight zone'...I'm not sure what you'd call it.    

Night...I'd guess,  ;)
a little more later...