VIX in cooling mode

Whilst equities saw rather significant gains build across the day, the VIX was naturally in cooling mode, settling -2.4% @ 15.61 (intra low 15.36). Near term outlook is back to bullish for US equities, with risk of VIX continuing to cool to the mid/low 14s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

All things considered, the VIX held up pretty well today. Yet.. part of that reason is no doubt because of the looming FOMC announcement this Wednesday afternoon.

*VIX opex is at the Wed' open.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +27pts @ 2081. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.7% and 0.6% respectively. With a daily close above the 10dma of 2074, near term outlook is bullish. Metals settled a touch weak, Gold -$1. Oil -2.6% in the $43s.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour, bears ground out... with a clear move above the 50% fib retrace (from 2119)... and the daily 10MA of sp'2074
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So, a bullish start to the weak.... but price action/structure looks much like last Thursday. Another failure at these levels for the bulls would open the door to a rather swift decline to the 200dma.. which is currently all the way down @ 2004.

In favour of the bulls...

Daily close above 10MA of 2074
Price structure is bullish F flag.. bodes for Tue/Wed gains into the 2090/2100s.


Bears...

VIX held up 'relatively' well today -3% in the mid 15s.
Oil remains weak
USD was sig' lower by -0.7%..  which would account for at least some of the equity gains.


Overall, unless Yellen says something really stupid (not least about interest rates),spooking the market this Wednesday... bulls are back in control. 

Unless bears can break under sp'2060 by the Tuesday close - with a F flag failure (like last Friday morning)... there is little hope for those already short.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - an important closing hour

US equities continue to claw upward.. with a new intra high of sp'2079 - a full 50% fib' retrace of the wave from the historic high of 2119. Equity bears are on the edge here... with VIX cooling -2.6% in the 15.60s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. Oil remains broadly weak, -2.6%.


sp'daily3 - fib levels

sp'60min

Summary

We have a pretty important closing hour.

Equity bears arguably need a daily close back under the daily 10MA of 2074/73..  considering the current price action... that won't be easy.
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Notable weakness, INTC -0.4%... which is pretty lousy, considering the current market gains.
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3.04pm.. short stop cascade underway.... sp'2080.... next level is the Mar'9 high of 2083.

Interestingly.. VIX remains relatively unmoved in the 15.50s.
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3.15pm.. Equity bears need a daily close <2075 to break the bull flag...  however, across Tuesday morning, any sustained trading <2080 will do it.

VIX attempting to floor.. -2.4% @ 15.62...


3.41pm.. minor chop.. stuck at upper end of resistance @ 2080....

A daily close under the 10dma of 2074 looks highly improbable.. and that does bode in favour of the bulls for rest of the week.

... back at the close

2pm update - the daily close will be key

US equities are holding significant gains, with two hours left of the trading day. How the market closes will be pretty important... a daily close >sp'2075 would bode in favour of the bulls... otherwise... market is poised for another failure. Despite the equity gains, VIX is comfortably holding the mid teens.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*typical turn time is of course 2.30pm... if the bears are going to show up today... that would be the time.
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So... two hours left.... a daily close back under the 10dma (currently 2073) is kinda important.
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Notable weakness: AA -2.5%.... Alcoa looks a broken stock... bigger picture downside to 10/9 looks a given into the summer
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2.26pm... well.... sp'2077.... 4pts.. (0.2%) above the daily 10MA.... bears need to show up in the remainder of today.. or it bodes for a straight up more to new historic highs.

*watching Liesman on clown finance TV talking about patience... but more on that in the closing hour.

1pm update - another bull flag failure looks due

Equities are holding around key resistance of sp'2075. Price structure is a rather clear bullish F flag.. much like Thursday. The issue now is whether the market fails to keep on pushing higher... or slips back into the 2060s. VIX is holding the 15s... offering the 20s.. if renewed weakness to sp'2k.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*metals remain (not surprisingly) weak, with a baby bear flag on the daily chart. A major drop seems due this week... breaking the Nov' low of $1130.
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Little to add.

Market looks set to remains stuck.. if not rollover into the close.
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Notable weakness: NFLX -4.5% on a downgrade

12pm update - equities at resistance

US equities are holding gains across all indexes... but are now at key resistance. A daily close above sp'2076 would bode for a straight up move into April.. otherwise.. another rollover is due. VIX is naturally cooling, -3% in the 15.50s. Oil remains weak, -3.8%.. having broken a new cycle low of $42.85.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

More than anything right now... a daily close above.. or below the 10MA.. that IS the issue.. at least in my view.

Best guess... bulls fail.. with a Monday close under the 10MA (currently @ sp'2073).
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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea :)

11am update - Oil remains a problem

Despite equities breaking into the sp'2070s, there remain a number of rather huge bearish issues in the immediate term, not least of which are weakening Oil prices. WTIC is around 4% lower, in the low $43s. Metals have already turned red, Gold -$2.


sp'60min

USO, weekly'2

Summary

*weekly 'rainbow' candles are now decisively red... we're surely headed for sub $40 WTIC in the immediate term.
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Suffice to say... lower oil prices are causing real problems in energy stocks.

Sooner or later this week... the main market is going to be dragged down too.
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Notable weakness: NFLX -3.4%.. on a down grade.
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11.12am... Price structure on the hourly equity cycle is a clear bullish F flag... the issue now is... whether that will also fail and break lower.. as we saw early Friday morning.

10am update - opening gains

US equities start the week on a positive note, with the sp'500 battling to break into the 2070s. A daily close above the 10MA of 2072 would bode for a straight up run to new historic highs... otherwise.. this is just the expected bounce. Oil remains weak, -2.5% in the $43s.


sp'daily5b

Summary

To be clear.... the daily 10MA in my view marks the boundary.

If we see a daily close above the 10MA... which will be 2070/68 by tomorrow/Wednesday, then a break <2039 will be off the menu.

As it is... I'm guessing we get stuck today... trundle sideways tomorrow... and then reverse on FOMC day.
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Notable weakness: Oil/gas drillers, RIG -1.6%, SDRL -5.3%

.. see the weekend fair value post for broader perspective, on what remains an utterly destroyed sector.

10.14am.. sp'2072... approaching gap zone... we should get stuck soon... and cool for rest of the day.

Oil remains exceptionally weak, -3.2%.... and that sure isn't helping energy stocks. Conversely, airlines are climbing.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 2059. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$3. Oil remains weak, -1.6%... having fractionally broken a new cycle low of $43.57.


sp'60min

sp'daily5b

Summary

So, we're set to open a little higher, a net daily gain looks pretty likely.

Broadly... market looks set for chop .. with 'moderate upside' to the 2070s by the FOMC of Wednesday afternoon. From there... I'm guessing we'll see a rollover into the Wed' close... and then at least down to sp'2k before end month.

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Update from a typically loud Oscar



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Doomer chat - Hunter with Ms. Prins.



As ever... make of that... what you will.
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Good wishes for the week ahead!