Volatility down again

Whilst the main indexes continue to hold together, and even put in marginally higher highs, the VIX is continuing to crumble, closing -0.3% @ 12.55. It remains a market that has no fear of the future.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, it is indeed a fearless market, and we could remain in the 13-11 range for weeks..if not months.
-

First upside target for the equity bears should be VIX 15s, but I just can't see that viable any time soon.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed.. Weakest was the transports, -0.5% or so, with the R2K -0.15%. SP and Nas' effectively flat. Tuesday might see weakness in the morning, but there is strong rising support @ sp'1625. Sub'1600s do not look viable any time soon.


sp'60min

Summary

A quiet day indeed, on one of those rare no-pomo days.

There really isn't anything to add, aside that the bulls got another daily close in the sp'1630s.

--

3pm update - weakness into the close

On balance, some weakness into the close looks likely, after what has been a very muted day. Precious metals and Oil are seeing renewed weakness after the earlier bounce. Miners are especially weak today, with GDX -2.3%


sp'60min

USO'60min

Summary

Quiet day, there really isn't much going on.

*USO in theory could be as low as 33.30/20s early Tuesday. My primary target remains 33.50/40.

I will seek to go long early Tuesday.
--

Stock of the day...BKS

As expected, the black candle on Thursday - along with hysteria over a possible Nook deal with MSFT, are entirely irrelevant. The company simply loses money on every book sold.

2pm update - another micro-wave of weakness

The indexes are back to slightly red. Hourly cycle charts offer weakness into early Tuesday. VIX is +1%, but still in the 12s. Even VIX 14 looks difficult in the near term. Metals and Oil remain moderately weak.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Very dull Monday, and despite some econ-data across each day this week, I really don't expect much of anything.
---

*I'm certainly not shorting anything...but neither am I going long right now.

Perhaps early Tuesday weakness will offer some tempting levels, especially for USO.
--

2.31pm... as I feared, Oil seeing a secondary wave lower, but we're a fair way from breaking the morning low.

Seeking weakness into the close..and early Tuesday.

1pm update - slow motion churn

It remains a very quiet Monday, although we are again breaking new index highs. The metals and Oil remain a little weak, with the USD holding minor gains of 0.2%. Weekly charts continue to warn of very significant upside across the summer.


Trans'weekly3, rainbow

USO'60min

Summary

Yes there are divergences on the weekly charts, but it doesn't seem to matter.
--

*I remain watching Oil, I'm in no hurry to jump aboard. Perhaps it'll start to cycle lower into the close..even extending into early Tuesday...before the pomo money kicks in?

Downside target would be USO 33.50/40s
--

VIX update from Mr T.



Those May19's will implode to 0 on May'22, - VIX opex is next Wed'

back at 2pm

12pm update - indexes turning green

Those bears getting overly excited about the morning weakness are already getting nailed, as the indexes start to turn green. However, best guess is for a secondary wave of weakness in the late afternoon. Metals and Oil remain weak. VIX is back to flat.


sp'60min

USO'15min

Summary

A very quiet Monday so far. 

*Oil is interesting, but its not tempting at these levels. I'm definately looking for a further wave lower later today. The only issue is whether that stretches into Tuesday morning.

11am update - resilient market

Market is holding together very well. Any hope of sub' sp'1620s late today or early Tuesday seems off the table. Indeed, with big QE tomorrow, a move to the 1640s seems likely later this week. Oil is particularly weak, still sliding, -1.3%. VIX is weak, a mere 1% higher.


sp'60min

USO'15min

Summary

Not much to add right now.

*I remain looking to go long Oil (via USO) today. Am in no hurry though. USO 33.40s look viable, which is a touch above the Friday low.


11.36am...Oil remains an interesting one, but not at these levels. Looks like a bear flag on the 15min chart. Best guess, latter day weakness, that might even stretch into early Tuesday, before the next big POMO.
--

10am update - morning weakness

The main indexes are moderately lower, and no doubt some bears are getting a little excited for a turn lower this week. Considering that nothing has changed, I find it implausible for the market to be trading <sp'1600 any time soon. Precious metals and Oil are especially weak.


sp'60min

USO'15min

Summary

Market is shaking out the weak bulls, and (arguably) sucking in the most naive of bears.
--

No QE-pomo today.

*I am looking to go long Oil, 11am is usually a reasonable time. Will look for a floor via the 15min cycle.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open around 1628. Precious metals and Oil are slightly lower, with USD a little higher. Certainly, no significant moves to start the week.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, here we go again....another week. No doubt many bears are still seeking a major turn lower, but I just can't see that until later in the summer.
-

Retail sales data:+0.1%, vs -0.3 expected.. so market bulls can take something from that.


There is no QE-pomo today, but there is a major one tomorrow and Friday.
--

*I will be looking to go long Oil (again) sometime today.