VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
With equities likely to rise (at least) during the first half of January, the VIX is equally likely to remain broadly subdued.
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more later... on the indexes
Wednesday, 30 December 2015
VIX a little higher
With equity indexes closing moderately weak, the VIX was naturally on the rise, settling +7.5% @ 17.29. Near term outlook offers a year end close around sp'2090, and that would likely equate to VIX in the 14s. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until at least the latter half of January.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
With equities likely to rise (at least) during the first half of January, the VIX is equally likely to remain broadly subdued.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
With equities likely to rise (at least) during the first half of January, the VIX is equally likely to remain broadly subdued.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -15pts @ 2063 (intra low 2061). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.1% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers a Thursday/year end close around 2090, with the 2100s viable next week.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a micro wave lower, breaking a new intra low of 2061.. but not quite filling the upper end of the price gap zone. Maybe early tomorrow morning?
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Suffice to add... a naturally quiet day... with just one trading day left of the year.
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more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a micro wave lower, breaking a new intra low of 2061.. but not quite filling the upper end of the price gap zone. Maybe early tomorrow morning?
--
Suffice to add... a naturally quiet day... with just one trading day left of the year.
--
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - clawing into the close
US equities are set to close moderately weak, but with the 5/15/60min cycles all inclined for a touch of upside into the close. A year end close around 2090 remains within range. Metals are weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -0.4%. Oil has been completely unable to rally, -3.2% in the $36s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
The micro cycles are indeed offering a touch of natural upside into the close, but still.. we'll likely close net lower on the day.
*I'm aware of a few who are seeking some kind of New Years eve sell off, but really.. price action remains relatively subdued.
Considering the bigger daily/weekly cycles, the market is more inclined to push upward.
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*keep sending those 2016 predictions in. see: HERE
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3.39pm... and a micro snap lower.. to a new low of sp'2065.
So.. the gap zone looks like it will be filled after all.
Hmm... a daily close in the 2060s will make 2090 difficult tomorrow. The only data of note is Chicago PMI, and that isn't likely to come in much above 50.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
The micro cycles are indeed offering a touch of natural upside into the close, but still.. we'll likely close net lower on the day.
*I'm aware of a few who are seeking some kind of New Years eve sell off, but really.. price action remains relatively subdued.
Considering the bigger daily/weekly cycles, the market is more inclined to push upward.
-
*keep sending those 2016 predictions in. see: HERE
--
3.39pm... and a micro snap lower.. to a new low of sp'2065.
So.. the gap zone looks like it will be filled after all.
Hmm... a daily close in the 2060s will make 2090 difficult tomorrow. The only data of note is Chicago PMI, and that isn't likely to come in much above 50.
2pm update - trying to build a floor
US equity indexes are trying to build a floor from a low of sp'2069. The hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly cycles are all offering 2090 for the yearly close. VIX remains relatively subdued, +4% in the 16s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.5%. Oil is notably weak, -3.1% in the $36s.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly1b
Summary
Seen on the bigger daily/weekly charts, there is clear resistance around 2090. It will take some significant new years buying to break the market into the 2100s, but it does look due.
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notable strength: CBRL +0.4% in the $126s
TSLA +1.5%
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back at 3pm
sp'daily5
sp'weekly1b
Summary
Seen on the bigger daily/weekly charts, there is clear resistance around 2090. It will take some significant new years buying to break the market into the 2100s, but it does look due.
-
notable strength: CBRL +0.4% in the $126s
TSLA +1.5%
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back at 3pm
1pm update - continued weak chop
US equities remain moderately weak, but as is usually the case, there is high threat of a latter day recovery. A Thursday/2015 close at sp'2090 remains within range, along with VIX 14/13s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.5% in the $13s. Oil breaks new intra lows, -3.5%.
sp'60min
Summary
*note the upper bollinger on the hourly cycle will be offering 2090 by today's close and across tomorrow
--
Little to add.
It is merely just a matter of how many hours until we break back into the 2080s.. and onward to next resistance around 2090. The 2100s look due next week.
--
Meanwhile.... on clown finance TV
CBRL, daily
As noted earlier, it looks far more vulnerable to the upside, than breaking the recent low of $123
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back at 2pm
sp'60min
Summary
*note the upper bollinger on the hourly cycle will be offering 2090 by today's close and across tomorrow
--
Little to add.
It is merely just a matter of how many hours until we break back into the 2080s.. and onward to next resistance around 2090. The 2100s look due next week.
--
Meanwhile.... on clown finance TV
 |
| Najerian, J. likes CBRL for 2016 |
CBRL, daily
As noted earlier, it looks far more vulnerable to the upside, than breaking the recent low of $123
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back at 2pm
12pm update - no real downside power
US equities remain a little lower, but clearly, as its another holiday week, there really isn't any volume, and that will generally favour the bulls for another rebound. The sp'500 remains within range for a 2015 closing around 2090.. along with VIX 14s. Oil remains under strong downward pressure, -2.8% in the $36s.
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
re: Oil is clearly keeping some downward pressure on the broader market. For now, Oil looks stuck in the 36/38 zone. At best.. upside to the $40 threshold. Sustained upside >40 looks difficult in Q1.
--
Little to add, on what is a naturally quiet New Years Eve.... eve.
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VIX update from Mr T... getting it done !
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time for tea
sp'60min
USO, daily2
Summary
re: Oil is clearly keeping some downward pressure on the broader market. For now, Oil looks stuck in the 36/38 zone. At best.. upside to the $40 threshold. Sustained upside >40 looks difficult in Q1.
--
Little to add, on what is a naturally quiet New Years Eve.... eve.
--
VIX update from Mr T... getting it done !
--
time for tea
11am update - moderately weak
US equities are moderately weak, with the sp -6pts @ 2071. With the latest EIA report showing a net build of 2.6 million barrels, Oil is imploding, -3.0% in the $36s. The issue of over-supply remains entirely unresolved, and there is currently ZERO sign of industry capitulation.
sp'60min
Summary
Hmm, the gap zone of 2060/56 still looks out of range.
A day of weak chop... and Thursday will likely offer renewed upside. If we can at least close >2065.. my 2090 target remains in range.
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*I've always taken requests to highlight any given stock/commodity...
Poster 'brelsa' asked about Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
CBRL, weekly, 2.5yr
The stock has had a real problem since making a marginal new historic high in July ($156.99). Aug' saw it flash-crash to $117.06... with a lower high of $151 in Sept'.
Since then.. broad weakness to this morning @ $125. There is clearly some significant support in the 126/123 zone though... and unless that breaks, CBRL looks more vulnerable to upside.. than downside.
-
As a company.. income/balance sheet look good (cash/debt ratio look okay), gross/net profit margins are within industry standard... 6% net. That sure isn't much, but then.. thats the highly competitive restaurant trade.
see HERE for a basic overview.
Best guess...renewed upside to 135/140 zone in Q1.
It should be clear though, for sustained >140.. we'll need sp'2200s.. and beyond.
Low fuel prices look set to continue across 2016, and that will no doubt help ALL retail/food outlets.
Broadly.. CBRL looks a fine company, although I can't say anything about the food, as there are no Cracker Barrels in the UK.
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time for lunch, back at 12pm
sp'60min
Summary
Hmm, the gap zone of 2060/56 still looks out of range.
A day of weak chop... and Thursday will likely offer renewed upside. If we can at least close >2065.. my 2090 target remains in range.
--
*I've always taken requests to highlight any given stock/commodity...
Poster 'brelsa' asked about Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
CBRL, weekly, 2.5yr
The stock has had a real problem since making a marginal new historic high in July ($156.99). Aug' saw it flash-crash to $117.06... with a lower high of $151 in Sept'.
Since then.. broad weakness to this morning @ $125. There is clearly some significant support in the 126/123 zone though... and unless that breaks, CBRL looks more vulnerable to upside.. than downside.
-
As a company.. income/balance sheet look good (cash/debt ratio look okay), gross/net profit margins are within industry standard... 6% net. That sure isn't much, but then.. thats the highly competitive restaurant trade.
see HERE for a basic overview.
Best guess...renewed upside to 135/140 zone in Q1.
It should be clear though, for sustained >140.. we'll need sp'2200s.. and beyond.
Low fuel prices look set to continue across 2016, and that will no doubt help ALL retail/food outlets.
Broadly.. CBRL looks a fine company, although I can't say anything about the food, as there are no Cracker Barrels in the UK.
--
time for lunch, back at 12pm
10am update - opening weakness
US equities open moderately lower, with a clear lower gap of sp'2060/56, but considering holiday trading conditions and recent price action, that looks out of range. Metals are weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.7% in the $13s. Oil is -2.6% ahead of the EIA report.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*the year is not ending well for the gold bugs. I can't see Mr Market not taking Gold to the giant $1000 threshold.. and probably headed for the 900/875 zone by summer 2016.
Naturally, the related mining stocks are having issues. GDX -2.3%.
--
So.. we're a little lower, but really.. today is set to be mostly choppy.
A Thursday/2015 close around 2090 remains valid.
--
notable weakness...
AAPL, daily
Price structure is a clear bear flag. Were that to play out... then alarm bells should ring out. From a pure cyclical perspective though, we're still due another attempt to clear the 200dma around $120.
-
I'm cold .. and I think its time to cook.
*back for the oil report at 10.30am
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10.31am 2.6 million barrel oil surplus.. . Oil is -3.4% in the $36s.
Clearly.. that is denting the equity market, with sp -8pts @ 2069.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*the year is not ending well for the gold bugs. I can't see Mr Market not taking Gold to the giant $1000 threshold.. and probably headed for the 900/875 zone by summer 2016.
Naturally, the related mining stocks are having issues. GDX -2.3%.
--
So.. we're a little lower, but really.. today is set to be mostly choppy.
A Thursday/2015 close around 2090 remains valid.
--
notable weakness...
AAPL, daily
Price structure is a clear bear flag. Were that to play out... then alarm bells should ring out. From a pure cyclical perspective though, we're still due another attempt to clear the 200dma around $120.
-
I'm cold .. and I think its time to cook.
*back for the oil report at 10.30am
-
10.31am 2.6 million barrel oil surplus.. . Oil is -3.4% in the $36s.
Clearly.. that is denting the equity market, with sp -8pts @ 2069.
Pre-Market Brief
US equity futures are a little lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 2075. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 98.30. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$3. Oil is back on the slide, -2.6% in the $36s, ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
Summary
So...a little weakness to start the day is due... but things remain broadly on track.
Best guess remains: Thursday/yearly close @ sp'2090. The 2100s look more viable next week.
-
Overnight Asia action
Japan: +0.3% @ 19033
China: +0.3% @ 3572
--
Have a good Wednesday
sp'60min
Summary
So...a little weakness to start the day is due... but things remain broadly on track.
Best guess remains: Thursday/yearly close @ sp'2090. The 2100s look more viable next week.
-
Overnight Asia action
Japan: +0.3% @ 19033
China: +0.3% @ 3572
--
Have a good Wednesday
Other world equity markets are not so pretty
Whilst some might have become rather bullish - as the sp'2100s look due, it remains the case that on a global scale, most world equity markets are still struggling. Unless the majority of markets can re-take the monthly 10MA within the next few months... there is trouble ahead.
Lets take a brief look at a few of the key world markets...
Germany, DAX
Japan, Nikkei
China, Shanghai comp'
Summary
*I will cover the monthly/yearly closing in the world equity markets this coming weekend.
--
Suffice to add, the current situation should concern the longer term bulls. Despite a third consecutive net monthly gain, even the China market remains stuck under the 10MA (3700s).
Those seeking a major market upset in the US in the first half of 2016 should be seeking a reversal/spiky-top candle for the SSEC in Jan/Feb... with no monthly closes >3800.
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see Pending home sales, and the latest EIA oil report.
--
Submit YOUR outlook for 2016
Don't forget to submit your best guess/comments for what might be ahead next year.
See HERE for full details.
--
Goodnight from London
Lets take a brief look at a few of the key world markets...
Germany, DAX
Japan, Nikkei
China, Shanghai comp'
Summary
*I will cover the monthly/yearly closing in the world equity markets this coming weekend.
--
Suffice to add, the current situation should concern the longer term bulls. Despite a third consecutive net monthly gain, even the China market remains stuck under the 10MA (3700s).
Those seeking a major market upset in the US in the first half of 2016 should be seeking a reversal/spiky-top candle for the SSEC in Jan/Feb... with no monthly closes >3800.
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see Pending home sales, and the latest EIA oil report.
--
Submit YOUR outlook for 2016
Don't forget to submit your best guess/comments for what might be ahead next year.
See HERE for full details.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +21pts @ 2078
(intra high 2081). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7%
and 1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is for a year end closing
around sp'2090, with marginal new historic highs for the Dow, sp', and
Nasdaq in Jan/Feb'.
sp'daily5
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
Little to add.
It is notable that the 'headline indexes' - Dow, sp'500, and Nasdaq' all look on track for marginal new historic highs in January 2016.
Whether the market can hold such new highs... that is the core issue.
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
Little to add.
It is notable that the 'headline indexes' - Dow, sp'500, and Nasdaq' all look on track for marginal new historic highs in January 2016.
Whether the market can hold such new highs... that is the core issue.
--
a little more later...
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