Thursday 18 July 2013


Whilst the main indexes again closed moderately higher, the VIX was battling to hold the 13s. However, with poor earnings from GOOG and MSFT, the VIX battled upward in the brief 15mins of AH action, and closed effectively flat @ 13.77




Daily charts are pretty clear, despite the occasional hollow red (reversal candle), the broad trend is for lower volatility.

Equity bears should be seeking a daily close above the declining 10MA - currently in the low 14s.

Lower bollinger on the daily is now 11.76, and if the sp' is trading in the 1740/60s by early August, VIX 11s look viable.

Underlying MACD cycle ticked higher for a sixth consecutive day. For the bears, that is arguably the only early warning sign out there right now.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

All of the main indexes closed with moderate gains, with the Dow, Sp'500, and R2K having broken new historic highs earlier in the day. Underlying pressure is strongly to the upside, and it remains a fearless market with VIX in the lowly 13s.



So...historic new highs for the two big headline indexes (Dow, SP), and the bulls remain in total control.

As have been the case since the 1560 low of June'24, the intra-day down cycles are very small, and the market is being bought on every micro-fall.

Best guess...we max out within the next few weeks..somewhere in the mid 1700s.

What will be important to look for, will be a break of the very obvious channel.

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - closing hour melt

The main indexes are strong, and look set for higher levels in the very near term, with sp'1700s. WTIC Oil remains particularly powerful, now in the $108s, and set for a test of the key $110s. Bears have nothing to look forward to..for at 'some days'.



Looks like a baby bull flag on the hourly charts. No reason why sp'1700s won't be hit tomorrow, even though its opex.

*the more I look at the hourly charts, the more I think we are still in a sub'3. If the 1740/60s are going to be hit...bulls need this sub'3 to at least hit 1720s.

Regardless, the broad upward channel is holding..and only a maniac would be building short-positions right now.

3.48pm.. sp'1687 is holding VERY well..and a new historic close looks likely.

back at the close.

2pm update - holding together

The market looks set to close at least >1685, bears are still powerless, with the VIX -1% in the mid 13s. Underlying pressure remains to the upside, and the sp'1700s look very viable tomorrow..or at least early next week. WTIC Oil is in the 108s..set for $110.



The smaller 5/15min cycles look somewhat floored, and we could just be setting up a baby bull flag.

Whether we melt higher into the close..does it matter?

There seems no doubt sp'1700s will be hit..only issue is..what level does this wave conclude.

With the snap yesterday,, UAL is seeing some significant follow through.

A daily close >$35 would be very bullish for another week or two.

1pm update - micro down wave

The market has seemingly maxed out at sp'1693, at least for a few hours. Bulls have 'comfortable' support in the mid 1670s..and there is little chance of bears breaking <1680 today. Oil..and just about everything out generally still melting upward.



However you want to count the recent 17 days of nonsense, the primary trend is still upward.

Absolutely no point in shorting this market.

Again, the question has to be..what will motivate this market to begin a new multi-week down cycle?

*July'31 will be one hell of an interesting day..perhaps the biggest day of the year so far..more on that later though.

stock of the day (so far)...


BIDU is up around 25% in just TWO weeks.

A test of the Jan' high, around 114 now looks likely tomorrow/early next week

12pm update - battling higher

The main indexes are relentlessly pushing higher. Volume is still 'summer light', and that will again mean the algo-bots will rule the afternoon..a close in the 1700s is viable. WTIC Oil has broken into the 108s, that's bullish for the US economy...yes?



The only issue seems to far we can ramp across the next week or two.

*I don't have a separate chart on it yet, but, might we still be in sub'3 ? If you look at the RSI on the hourly, its more suggestive we're still in a sub'3.

I'm just trying to keep in mind the bigger weekly charts that are offering upside into early August, rather than everything being wrapped up next week.


Underlying cycle is still clearly UP UP UP !  Even if we do max out next week, it won't be until early August that a clear turn is discernible.

VIX update..coming

11am update - new index highs

The underlying pressure to the upside continues, with the Dow, R2K, and SP'500 breaking new historic highs. VIX looks set to close in the 12s, for the first time in 8 weeks. Precious metals and Oil are both holding significant gains, with the USD moderately higher.




Bulls remain in total control, and sp'1700s are just a matter of days..or hours away.

*I have a 'scary thought'...what if the entire move from 1560 to the present, is merely a sub'1 of wave'5 ?

I have seen a few out there who are looking for upper 1700s/1800s before the next drop.

I'm guessing no though, hence the count on the daily chart, assuming sub'4 was just complete yesterday.

For the bears, another week..or so to wait.

10am update - Benny at the Senate

The market is holding moderate gains, ahead of what will probably be the last appearence of the Bernanke before the US senate. Hourly index charts are offering upside into the sp'1690s, and the 1700s look a given in the current up wave.



New high for the Dow and R2K
**special note...

I am seeing a LOT of people who are thinking the current up wave will complete some time next week.

I had been looking for a cycle peak in early August...but perhaps the consensus in chart-land is right.

I will endeavour to keep an open mind on this..but what is clear right now..the up trend...continues.

10.32am..well, there are the doubt about that.

The only issue I have is whether we see 1720s...40s..or 60s.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have swung around, and are now a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open around 1683. Metals are moderately higher, Gold +$6. Today will once be about the Bernanke, this time, sitting in front of the US Senate.



Hourly index charts are still very much offering upside, we could easily be in the 1690s later today, especially if the market likes the early morning econ-data.

For the bulls, sp'1700s remain more a question of 'when'..not if.

For the bears....there is no hurry to get involved yet...I'm sure staying away from the current nonsense.

*notable movers so far... Ebay, -6%

Good wishes for Thursday trading!

An early August turn?

The market continues to battle higher, with the R2K and Transports still leading the way. Sp'1700s look viable in the very near term, the only issue is where does the current multi-week up wave complete? Best guess...the market maxes out in early August.

sp'weekly8 - mid-term outlook

sp'monthly6c - outlook into 2016


Broad outlook is for further short term equity gains...some weakness in late Aug/September, and then renewed (and rather powerful) upside across the festive period and into the 'green shoots' of spring 2014.

Despite the chatter, the QE continues in full, and this market has NEVER seen a significant pull back whilst QE is ongoing.

Best case for the bears right now, sp'1750..and then a swift drop back to 1600/1550 by late September. Yet from there, I'd have to believe the market will just ramp right back..and keep on pushing.

Looking ahead

There is the usual weekly jobless data, but also phil' fed and leading indicators. However, once again, the Bernanke will be the centre of attention, this time sitting in front of the US senate.

*next sig' QE is this Friday.

I am indeed still expecting sp'1700s, and that could be as soon as tomorrow, not least if the market uses any corp' earnings data as an excuse to believe that 'all is well' in the US economy.

For the few remaining bears out there, it effectively remains a case of being patient...really....really patient.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all closed moderately higher, with the sp +0.28% @ 1680. The Transports and R2K continue to lead higher, with daily gains of 0.8% and 0.4% respectively. Underlying pressure remains to the upside, and bulls look in control, at least into early August.





So...another up day for the bulls, and the bears remain utterly powerless. Intra-day declines are never more than 1%, and the market is always able to bounce right back within a day.

Despite the higher close, underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle did tick lower for the second consecutive day. Yet, momentum is still in extremely bullish territory.

With the weekly index charts battling higher...there is no near term downside likely. The earliest 'hope' for the bears is probably in the first half of August.

a little more later...