Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
The Friday close of sp'2259 was a new historic high. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) continues to tick upward, and is at the most bullish level since Dec'2014.
Best guess: a brief retrace of 2-3% before year end, but broadly climbing to the 2300s in Jan'2017. The 2500s are now a realistic target by next May/June.
Equity bears have nothing to tout unless the market is back under the key 10MA, which in early Jan'2017 will be around 2170. Indeed, price action <2100 looks unlikely for many... many months.
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Nasdaq comp'
The tech is currently +2.3% for the month, having seen a new historic high of 5450. The 6000s remain a realistic target by late spring 2017. Things only turn bearish with price action <5k, and that is now 9% lower!
Dow
The mighty Dow continues to lead the way higher, currently +3.3%, having seen a new historic high of 19757. The giant psy' level of 20k is clearly within range before the Christmas holiday. Price momentum is the strongest since Dec'2013. Having broken into the 19000s, the next big Fibonacci price target is 26702.
NYSE comp'
The master index is the last of the main indexes yet to break a new historic high (>11254). With a weekly close of 11191, we're only 63pts away.. a mere 1%. That is clearly within range in the immediate term. Once 11300s, the next natural target will be the 12k threshold.
R2K
The second market leader - R2K, is already another 5% higher for the month, having broken a new historic high of 1392. The 1500s are now a valid target by March/April. A few years ago I mentioned 'R2K @ 2K'. That is clearly still a very long way up, but I wonder when I'll start seeing similar talk from some of the others out there in chart land.
Trans
The 'old leader' was the latest index this week to achieve a new historic high... of 9490, barely 5% away from the giant psy' level of 10k. Price momentum is the strongest since Dec'2014. Things only turn bearish if the tranny trades back under the 10MA.. currently in the 8100s.
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Summary
All of the US equity indexes are powering higher, lead by the Dow. Only the NYSE comp' is yet to break a new historic high.
Time Fibonacci offers two possible turns: Feb'2017, or a seemingly far more probable October.
Price Fibonacci offers the next big numbers of sp'3047 and Dow 26702.
Most indexes now have around 10% of downside buffer before any damage is done to the broader upward trend from the Jan/Feb' lows.
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Looking ahead
It will be the last big trading week of the year.
M - US treasury budget
T - import/export prices
W - PPI, retail sales, indust' prod', bus' invent, EIA report.
The FOMC will issue a press release at 2pm, which will detail a rate hike of 25bps to a target range of 0.50-0.75%. Yellen will hold a press conf' around 2.30pm, and that will last around an hour.
T - weekly jobs, CPI, phil' fed, empire state, housing market index,
F - housing starts, *QUAD-OPEX*
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post will appear Monday @ 7pm EST.
