Tuesday 2 June 2020

Credibility, what credibility?

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +25pts (0.8%) at 3080. Nasdaq comp' +0.6%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled +1.9%.




US equities opened a little choppy, which was again relatively impressive, considering the overnight 'social unrest'. news.

A brief moment of serenity... 

Opening bell: (L>R) Hurley, Behnken, Cassidy

From a low of 3015, the market clawed upward, with the afternoon seeing considerable chop, but breaking a new cycle high in the closing minutes. Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling -4.9% to 26.84.

Credibility, what credibility?

Whilst I don't agree with everything El-Erian says, he is always worth hearing...


"You end up, not only undermining the system itself, but you undermine the credibility of an institution, that is critical to the well being of this, and future generations".

First, the fed has no credibility. It has always been reactive to events... its never been proactive.

Second, El-Erian argues that the fed is CRITICAL to the US economy and market. The fact is that the fed have grossly twisted and distorted US and global capital flows. Its two central policies of low/zero interest rates and money printing, are destroying the very foundation of capitalism.

He is correct in noting that its going to be difficult to produce high economic growth, due to the underlying societal imbalance. Its arguable though, that has been the case for decades. Various pieces of employment data across the next three days will be a reminder of ongoing economic horror.

Warm sun... ahead of a cooling wave.

Full moon is this Friday, June 5th
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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