Closing Brief

US equities continue the hyper-ramp from mid October, with new historic highs for the Dow (17735) and Sp'500 (2056), settling +10pts at 2051. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.


sp'60min

Summary

Suffice to say... another day of classic algo-bot melt.. few buyers..... but even fewer sellers.

There is a 'moderate' chance of retrace beginning tomorrow, but then... that has justifiably been the case for over two weeks.

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*daily wrap at 8pm EST.

3pm update - just another crazy day

US indexes are holding moderate gains, with new historic highs in the Dow and Sp'500. With the USD failing to recover opening declines, the metals have managed to hold gains, Gold +$8.. which has helped the miner ETF of GDX to break/hold the key $20 threshold


sp'daily5

Summary

For those attempting to short the indexes, it is no doubt another extremely frustrating day.

The only real hope for equity bears this week are the FOMC minutes.. due tomorrow at 2pm.

As ever... first key break level would be the daily 10MA.. currently @ 2037... almost 1% lower
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Notable weakness, BABA -2.4%... but then... it has rallied over 40% since mid October.. even a retrace to $100 would not negate that much of the hyper-gains.


3.33pm... micro cycles pushing lower.... 2056 to 54... with VIX making a vain attempt to close flat/fracitonally higher.... seems a stretch though.

Oil remains weak, -1.6%...still seemingly headed for 65/60 zone into early 2015.... but that will be bullish for the broader economy. 

2pm update - the algo bot melt continues

The Dow has followed the sp'500 with a new historic high of 17708, that is 1853pts across 25 trading days.. an average of 74pts (almost 0.5%) per day. When will the madness stop? Perhaps the real question is... are the central banks going to buy the entire world equity market?


Dow, daily

Summary

*VIX is in typical melt mode, -3.3% at 13.50.
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So... day'25 from the intra low of Oct'15..and we're still grinding higher.

Right now, the only hope for the equity bears is for Mr Market to use the FOMC minutes (due Wed' 2pm).. as an excuse to break lower. Considering today though... there is low confidence in any such outcome.
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With metals managing to hold moderate gains, the miners have broken back above the GDX $20 threshold. Long term trend reversal?  Hmm...

Notable strength: airlines, DAL +3.7%, UAL +4.5%.... the lower oil prices (-1.1) are no doubt the primary reason.
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Chatter from Riley...


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12pm update - R2K is not exactly inspiring

Whilst the algo-bots magically melt the sp'500 to a new high of 2050, the two leaders - Trans/R2K are not confirming it. A fourth consecutive daily decline for the R2K looks very viable. Commodity land remains mixed, with Gold +$5, whilst Oil -1.5%


R2K, daily

Summary

So... sp'2050... a mere 4% shy of the key fib target of the 2130s.

Anyone still think sub'1900 is likely before year end?
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As for the R2K, it remains the weakest index for the year of course, but did notably break the high of Sept'1st. Right now, seems almost impossible to envision any sustained trading <1100.

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Notable weakness... BABA

Obvious key support is the giant $100 threshold.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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 time for tea

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back at 2pm.

11am update - miners offering a turn

Whilst US equities continue to see moderate gains... with a new historic high of sp'2049, there is a viable reversal underway in the miners. GDX has got stuck just under the old broken floor of $20.


GDX, daily

JDST, 60min

Summary

*JDST is a fine example of how crazy wild the 3x leveraged instruments can move across just a few weeks. Anyone not using stops since the last peak is -60% or so in just 9 days!
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As for the main market... there are multiple signs (still) of an exhausted market.. despite the sp'500 breaking a new high.

First target remains a daily close under the 10MA of sp'2037. If that occurs, it will confirm what the Trans/R2K have been warning about for the past few days.
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Notable weakness, energy... Nat'gas and Oil both lower by around -1.1%
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time for an early lunch

10am update - mixed open

US markets open mixed, but with a notable new historic high of sp'2048. Metals are higher, Gold +$6.. but cooling as the USD is trying to claw back higher. Energy is weak, Nat' gas -1.3%, whilst Oil -1.1%.


sp'daily5

R2K, daily

Summary

So.. the algo-bots manage to wash out the stops around sp'2045/47... but the other indexes are not breaking new highs.

The two leaders - Trans/R2K, look vulnerable, with the R2K turning negative MACD cycle, for the first time since mid Oct'.
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Overall, its still pointless for equity bears to be getting involved in this... even if you believe a moderate retrace is due before year end.
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Notable strength: GDX +2.3%... $19.90s.... near the old broken floor from Dec'2013
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10.01am.. Housing market index 58.. vs 55exp.

Naturally, this 'confidence' is seen as super bullish for the broader housing market... even though a long term chart would look dire.. with very little recovery since the property bubble blew up in 2007.
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Eyes to the USD... if it turns positive today, that will be an issue... currently  -0.26%...
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10.22am Notable weakness, BABA -2.8%... breaking the up trend from mid October. 


10.40am.. market cooling.... no one wants to buy >sp'2050... urghhh    VIX set to turn positive.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open at sp'2041, a mere 5pts shy of last Thursdays historic high. With the USD on the slide, -0.5%, the metals are sharply higher, Gold +$13, whilst Oil is only fractionally higher, +0.1%


sp'daily5

Summary

*with the metals continuing to climb, the miners are being dragged higher, GDX +2.4% @ $19.85.. which is now fast approaching the old broken 2013 floor of $20. Gold bugs still need to see a few daily closes in the 20s before they can get excited about some kind of end run rally.  I still don't see it.
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So... market set to open flat. Not exactly inspiring...

However..the daily equity/VIX cycles are both swinging back toward the equity bears... so..today should in theory close moderately negative.

Next major issue are the FOMC minutes, but those are not due until Wed' 2pm.

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Update from Mr C.



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Good wishes for Tuesday
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8.45am... Still catching up on things... PPI was +0.2%.. vs market expec' -0.1%.. so.. that is something for the bulls..and one reason why the markets might be jumping.


8.57am.. Despite the weak dollar, energy prices are weak, Nat'gas and Oil both turning lower by -0.7 and -0.3% respectively.

Equity bears could do with Oil lower... that would normally help... although its not made much difference lately!

Daily Wrap

The broader equity market looks increasingly tired, with a viable near term top of sp'2046. A break back under the giant sp'2000 threshold looks likely, but at best.. equity bears will probably manage no lower than 1980/50.. along with VIX 18/20.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A pretty tedious start to the week. Market remains trading within a very tight trading range, although, the two leaders - Trans/R2K, are both rolling over, and highly suggestive that the rest of the market will follow...

R2K, daily

R2K looks headed for the 1150/30 zone. On no outlook does a sustained move back under 1100 appear viable.


Looking ahead

PPI, housing market index. Fed official Kocher' will be speaking.. and Mr Market will be listening.

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Goodnight from London