Tuesday 16 July 2013

Volatility moderately higher

With the main indexes closing lower for the first time in nine trading days, the VIX managed a small gain, closing +4.6% @ 14.42. In the scheme of things though, this is a negligible move, and even VIX 15s won't mean much...if hit later this week.




So, a small gain for the VIX, and it remains at what are the lowly 14s.

With indexes still looking like they will see continued upside into early August, VIX still looks set for the 12s..at least briefly.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked higher for the fourth consecutive day, but won't likely be in positive territory until early next week.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed moderately lower, the first negative daily close in 9 days. With the Bernanke due Wed/Thursday, and opex on Friday, we could just churn sideways for the rest of the week. Underlying pressure remains to the upside...bears remain exceptionally weak.



I can understand if some will call today the start of a new down wave, but really...weekly charts are still powerfully bullish, with broad upside likely into early August.

*I remain content to sit on the sidelines, not least with the printing maniac due for his little 'chat' with the US Govt. tomorrow.

3pm update - ramp into the close

The main indexes have seen a rather clear 5 waves lower..and now we're in sub'3 of 'something' on the upside. Bears getting overly excited about the earlier drop to 1671, should be frankly... terrified..of a very viable sp'1700 by late tomorrow.




The micro-cycles are 'behaving' rather well today.

Upside into the close..supported on ALL cycles.

3.06pm..ironic how a 3pt drop in 5mins..and the bears will be getting overly excited again.

Hourly charts are lousy...from a bearish perspective. Cycle looks done.

3.23pm..despite the mild bearish hysteria out there, the 5min micro-cycle is floored, and the earlier low of 1671 ..holds.

Lets see what the bulls can managed in 37mins !

2pm update - 5 waves...complete

It would appear the little 5 wave down cycle is complete, with the bears managing an sp -10pt decline to 1671 - which is interestingly where the hourly charts offer first support at the lower bollinger. Moderate upside into the close seems very likely




*Despite anticipating a floor, which I think will hold..I'm just not in the mood for getting involved.

Am tired of this nonsense.

With Bernanke speaking tomorrow, I should probably have sedatives on standby.

1pm update - 5 micro waves down?

The micro 5min cycle chart is offering an interesting 5 wave cycle..with the fifth wave to complete imminently. VIX is struggling with gains of just 3-4%. A close <1670 looks very unlikely, will the Bernanke inspire the market to 1700s across Wed/Thursday



Kinda bizarre to keep in mind how a 7/8pt decline on the SP' looks like a mini-crash.

It really has come to the point where declines of 0.5% look dramatic.

*did you notice the new bloomberg lunch time show?  I sure miss Tom Keane....pure econ/market-chat.. now that was a lunch time show worth watching.

..maybe I'm just the last one watching the clown finance TV anyway....the irony.

1.14pm...5 waves about complete...no turn..yet...but its a pretty clear 5 waves

Market should comfortably hold the 1670 level, which is what the hourly index charts are saying is a floor anyway.

1.21pm...a classic spike-floor..just put in.

Bears look...done.

12pm update - market collapse...relatively

The main indexes are collapsing..'relative' to the past three weeks of nonsense. Hourly charts are offering 1670 within an hour or two. A daily close <1670 would be somewhat 'interesting' for tomorrow. Regardless though, primary pressure/trend still remains to the upside.




So...are we seeing the sub' wave'4 , now starting?

Certainly, with the Bernanke tomorrow and Thursday..and opex on Friday...this is prime opportunity for some small scale pull back...if only 1-2%

On any outlook though, we still look due for another few weeks of upside into early August.

I sure ain't in any hurry to be shorting the indexes.

time for lunch!

VIX update from Mr T

July opex for VIX at the Wed' open...so look for August buyers across tomorrow!

11am update - its all noise

The main indexes are all fractionally lower, but really, this appears to be the best the bears can do on a down cycle. The only moderately bearish aspect so far today is Oil, which has swung from +0.6% to -0.4%. Gold is holding gains of $7, no doubt helped by a lower USD.



I don't expect the main indexes to see any sig' weakness today, seems far more likely Wed/Friday.

Oil is often a leader though...and right now..its weak....

stay tuned

11.10am..ohh the humanity..sp' -5pts....the drama!

10am update - micro declines

How many bears are getting overly excited by sp'500 declines of 2-3pts ? With low volume, the algo-bots have prime conditions to melt everything higher into the afternoon. Precious metals and Oil are holding moderate gains, with the USD -0.3%




It is indeed laughable that a micro decline of 0.1%, and there will be bears who are now looking for major downside.

Err..no. The weekly charts are powerfully pushing higher..and we still look set for broad upside into early August.

Yes, the daily SP' chart is looking like a viable double top, but the R2K, Nasdaq, are already above the 1687 equivalent levels.

Nothing has changed.... I'm holding to original outlook.

10.08am...and the indexes flip back to green...

Its simply a case of powerless bears...and algo-bot melt. 

10.35am..Oil is interesting, now moderately red, after earlier gains of 0.5%

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 1680. Primary trend remains strongly to the upside, and there is no reason why the market won't break into the 1690s later in the day. Precious metals and Oil are both moderately higher.

sp'60min'3 - broader count


So, a few points lower at the open, but why would it increase? Exactly

Volume remains exceptionally low, and that is prime conditions for the algo-bots.

*I remain content on the sidelines, and I don't intend to get involved today, not least since trading ahead of the Bernanke (Wed/Thursday) is pretty risky..for both sides.

As things are, I don't think we'll even retrace below the rapidly rising hourly 50MA..currently 1655.

Cruising higher into August

For the bulls, it was day'14 of a rally that has seen the sp' ramp 122pts, from what now looks like a very distant 1560 level. Mid-term best guess is for a multi-week down cycle starting in August, flooring in September..before continued broad upside into spring 2014.

sp'weekly8 - near term count


For the bears, the pressure is really start to buckle many again. It is 3 trading weeks since the June'24 low of 1560, and there is absolutely no sign of this rally ending.

Indeed, best guess is that we are currently in a super strong sub wave'3, and that the sp'1700s are now a given. The only issue is how high might a fifth wave take us into August?

Best guess...1740/60s

Looking ahead

There is CPI, industrial production, and housing data for Tuesday, so the market will have some excuses to rally in the early morning.

*next significant QE-pomo is not until this Friday.

I remain on the sidelines, and am merely trying to be patient. If there is any drop in the main indexes/Oil later this week, I might get involved, otherwise...I'm more than content to sit it out until early August.

The really depressing aspect is that..all things considered, it does look like my 'hyper-bullish outlook' is on track, and that would be looking for sp'2000 by next spring, perhaps even in the 2200/2300s.

As many might agree...'the delusion continues'.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all closed with moderate gains, on what is now day'14 of a 122pt rally in the sp'500. The May'22 high of 1687 looks set to be broken Tuesday, and if the Bernanke does not upset the market on Wed/Thursday, the 1700s look viable later this week.





As expected, this market is no place for the bears. The underlying price momentum remains extremely strong to the upside. Even though today wasn't a major gain, it was still a worthy victory for the bulls

Upside to 1740/60 looks viable by early August, and that will make for a very toppy fifth wave.

a little more later...