VIX cools some more

With equities holding rather significant gains across the day, the VIX was in melt mode, settling -8.1% @ 16.85   (intra low 16.67). Near term outlook is offering a break above resistance of sp'2064, which would likely equate to VIX in the 15/14s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say... VIX looks set to fall into the weekend. The Monday peak of the 22s now looks a long way up... and if the sp'500 does indeed manage a break >sp'2064, the VIX will fall to the low teens.
--

more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed higher for the third day of four this week, sp +20pts @ 2062. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into the monthly jobs data, with a viable weekly close in the sp'2070s... with VIX 15/14s.


sp'60min

Summary

*somewhat surprisingly, equities came close to taking out the 2064 resistance.... bodes in favour of the equity bulls tomorrow morning.
--

So... a decisive daily close above the 50dma of sp'2044, and it bodes for upside into the weekend.

For anyone still holding short from Monday morning... gods help you... what about trading stops?

Have a good evening

--
*the usual bits and pieces across the evening... to wrap up the day.

3pm update - chop into the close

US equities look set to close higher (barring any random comments from the ECB), with a daily close just under next key resistance of sp'2064. Friday looks set for a further push higher, with a viable weekly close in the 2070/75 zone. Metals are back to flat, whilst Oil is cooling from the earlier highs, +3.3%


sp'60min

Summary

So... unless the ECB want to spoil the party... the equity bull manaics look set for an important close above the 50dma of sp'2044.

Market will likely deem tomorrow's jobs data as 'acceptable'.. and jump above 2064 at the open.

VIX remains cooling, -5% in the 17s... a weekly close in the 15/14s remains viable... if sp'2070s.

--
Ahead of earnings, TWTR +1% in the $41s. 


3.39pm... Market making a surprising attempt to take out 2064 today.... ahead of the jobs data. A daily close of 2062/63 would be a real tease.. to bulls and bears alike.

Notable weakness, airlines, UAL -2.6%

2pm update - no ECB this afternoon

US equities look set to hold gains into the close, so long as the ECB keep mute for the remainder of the day... which seems probable. Metals remain a touch weak, Gold -$2. Oil is holding strong gains of 4%.. but day to day volatility remains extreme.


sp'60min

Summary

It would be highly improbable to see the ECB issue more comments in the late afternoon for the second consecutive day. I'm guessing we'll hear nothing from them until late Friday.

Near term trend remains bullish, and it won't take much of a gap higher tomorrow to break over key resistance of sp'2064.

After that... a weekly close in the 2070s is viable... which considering we were 1980 on Monday morning... is pretty crazy.
--

Notable gains, coal miners, BTU +5%...

... but then.. its only in the $7s.. which remains utterly destroyed since the spring 2011 high.

12pm update - holding gains

US equities are holding borderline significant gains, with sp' just 0.3% from breaking above the key resistance of 2064. VIX is in melt mode, -9% in the mid 16s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$2. Oil continues to see crazy day to day swings... currently +6.2%.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Market is looking scary strong.... ahead of the Friday jobs data.

Daily upper bol' will certainly offer further resistance in the low 2070s tomorrow... but.. any break >2064 will be highly significant.

Right now, equity bears should be desperate for more comments from the ECB....

--
VIX update from Mr T.


-
time for tea... back at 2pm

11am update - everything is fine again

Yesterday's closing hour upset on ECB comments is now a faded memory, and Mr Market is seemingly fine with the world again.. battling to break key resistance of sp'2064. VIX - which yesterday closed in a particularly bullish manner, is rapidly cooling, -8.7% @ 16.73.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So.. err.... are the ECB going to open their mouth today?

Frankly, its real tiresome...

Will the Greek finance minister say something 'stupid' today'? Place ya bets.... on when the next 'spooky' news headline will appear.
--

Notable strength: TWTR +3.9% ahead of earnings.

10am update - pushing for key resistance of 2064

US equities open moderately higher, and there looks to be fair chance of an attempt to test key resistance of sp'2064 today. VIX is confirming the 'everything is fine again' market, -7% in the upper 16s. Metals are weak, Gold -$6, whilst Oil is building early gains of a rather significant 3.4%


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*the metals remain particularly interesting... a break under GLD 120 would be pretty important. Price structure is arguably a bull flag though, hmm.
--

So... we're continuing to broadly climb from the Monday morning low of sp'1980. Those resolutely holding short are getting ground into dust.

If Mr Market likes the jobs data tomorrow (and why wouldn't it?).. a weekly close in the 2070s is viable.
-

notable strength: TWTR +3.3%.. ahead of earnings... opening black-fail candle on the 15min cycle though... viable 'cooling' into the early afternoon.


10.12am.. Smaller 5/15min cycles look maxed out at sp'2057.... seeking a down cycle into the early afternoon from here...


10.44am.. so much for 2057 holding...    but we're fast approaching the typical turn time of 11am....

Is it time for the ECB to start talking about Greece again?

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have swung higher from overnight lows, sp +9pts, we're set to open around 2050. Metals are weak, Gold -$5. Oil is rebounding 1.6%, after heavy Wednesday declines.


sp'daily5

Summary

So... we're set to jump back above the 50dma again. If we break 2054 this morning.. the door opens for a key break >2064.... which would then likely lead to new historic highs... after two full months of chop.
--

Notable early strength, TWTR +3.8% in the $42s... earnings due at the close of today.

Oil resumes the slide

With inventories coming in double what the market had expected, WTIC Oil prices snapped lower, settling -6.1% @ $48.45. Despite the recent climb from the $43s to $54.. the weekly/monthly cycles remain broadly bearish. There remains threat of an eventual key low in the 35/30 zone.


WTIC, monthly'2

WTIC, daily

Summary

With a weekly oil inventory increase of 6 million barrels, the opening declines were built upon... and WTIC Oil quickly lost the somewhat important $50 threshold.

It is notable that we're now just $5 away from breaking a new multi-year low.

*those equity bears seeking a down wave to sp'1920/00 in the near term, should be seeking Oil to unravel... at least to the $40 threshold.
--


Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual jobless claims, intl' trade, and productivity/costs.

--
Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -8pts @ 2041 (intra high 2054). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is offering a Thursday down wave to the 2030/20s... before renewed upside on monthly jobs data.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

*Dow was especially helped by Disney today, which had gains of 7.5% in the $101s
--

Little to add. The broader market is clearly still vulnerable to ANY news wire headline about Greece.

However, unless the Monday floor of sp'1980 is taken out, the equity bears can't get overly excited about bigger multi-week... or month declines.
--

Closing update from Riley


--
a little more later....