Thursday 8 September 2016

Eyes on the old leader

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp'500 u/c @ 2186 (intra range 2187/79). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.3% and 0.6% respectively. VIX settled -0.7% @ 11.94. Near term outlook offers a little cooling, but likely no lower than 2170.




So... another day of minor chop. However, the Nasdaq comp' broke another new historic high of 5287.

It was testament to the underlying market sentiment that the VIX couldn't even hold the 12s into the close. The key 20 threshold remains well out of range, arguably at least until mid October.

Fed chatter from the Schiff

The 'old leader' - Transports

Whilst the main market saw further minor chop, there was notable strength in the Transports.

Trans, monthly

Today's close in the 8000s was interesting, but as ever... what will really matter is the monthly close. A Sept'.. or Oct' close >8k would bode for much higher levels. Further, it would also confirm the earlier set of new historic highs in the sp/dow/nasdaq.

I fully recognise a fair number of you are seeking some degree of autumnal crash, however I just don't see it. That view only changes if we are trading under the monthly 10MA.. which is currently in the sp'2070s. For now, it arguably remains a case of no-shorts, and to be selectively long, in 'reasonably valued' stocks.

Goodnight from London