Wednesday 19 June 2019

Bullard leading the charge

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2926. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers Thursday cooling, with soft target of the 2900/2890 zone.




US equities opened in micro chop mode, and naturally stayed that way into the 2pm FOMC announcement.

The outlook from twelve fed officials merits highlighting...

The most notable (but not surprising) aspect of today's FOMC statement, was that Bullard was calling for a June rate cut. Lets be clear, Bullard, aka, the bane of the equity bears, aka... uber-dove, is going to replace Powell, the only issue is whether its before year end, or in 2020.

Equities managed to claw to sp'2931 in the closing hour, settling a little higher, notably... just 28pts (1.0%) shy of the May 1st historic high.

Volatility was itself subdued, with the VIX settling -5.4% at 14.33. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bears, not least with it being a Thursday. Its possible, if not probable that Trump will tweet some frustration that Powell didn't cut rates.

ps... we only have another 42 days to the FOMC of July 31st, when rates can be expected to be cut by 25bps to 2.00/2.25%.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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