Monday 11 February 2013

Volatility a touch lower

With the main market closing broadly flat, the VIX closed just a little lower, -0.6% @ 12.94. This is the lowest daily close in six days. Equity bears need to see VIX 15s to have any hope of filling the giant gap zone of 16-18.




The hourly chart is an absolute mess. The VIX has been stuck in the 12-14s since the smack down from the 23/22s in late December.

There really is only a small moderate upside pressure, but its there on the daily MACD cycle. Bears should look for VIX 15s later this week, but really, that is again probably going to need sp' <1490, which presently looks a very tough task.

As noted earlier, someone was picking up cheap March 18, 19, and 20 VIX calls, but those are  all highly speculative, and I just can't see anything >18 for many months.

more later, on the indexes

Closing Brief

A very quiet Monday, where the indexes appear to merely be consolidating sideways before the next round of slow motion algo-bot melt. Dollar closed a touch higher..with VIX..a touch lower.





The hourly cycles are generally just in a holding pattern.

What is clear, bears need a daily close under the recent 1494 intra-day low, to have any hope of the 1470/60s.

Without question, bears remain powerless....all else being equal..this market will just resume the melt higher..later in the week.

Tiresome eh?

more later..on the VIX.

2pm update - muted Monday

There is very slight weakness in the main market, but really, its a day of largely sideways micro-chop. Dollar and VIX remain mute, only the metals are showing any significant action to the downside.



GLD, daily


In terms of VIX, even the 16s look a long way up. Just to see VIX 16s, we'll probably need sp'1480, if not 1470, and right now, that looks very difficult.

Indeed, by the end of this week, key rising support will be around 1465, and end Feb' will be 1480.

There remains very powerful underlying strength in the US markets -  as I think I highlighted a week ago on the world index weekend update. There is open air of 15-20% for most indexes..which gets us to the sp'1600s..if not 1700s by early summer.

Until the POMO stops..I just can't see any chance of a sustained down trend.

VIX update, from Mr T.

Looks like someone is picking up some cheap 18-20 call blocks. I sure can't see VIX'20 this side of the spring. Maybe in May though.

*its a quiet day, so..updates more sporadic.

back after the close..unless something dramatic happens before then (if only).

12pm update - rollover on the weekly?

The main market seems doubt partly due to the snow in the NE. The big weekly index charts offer a lot of empty air to the downside, but as has been the case for months..the bears have no power. Metals remain the highlight of the morning...significantly lower.

sp'weekly2, rainbow

slv,weekly2, rainbow


Not much to say, market seems lost..its just a holding-pattern day.

There is of course endless POMO $ floating around this market, so every micro-dip is being bought up.

Metals are indeed lower, and my target for SLV remains 28.50..that'd make for a nice exit..and then long into the early the 38/40s.

back a little later.

10am update - another week of POMO

Good morning, and welcome to another POMO fuelled week of the most rigged casino in the world. Mr Market is due to cycle marginally lower, as pressured by the hourly cycle, yet it'll surely just put in yet another higher low in this cycle. Dollar is a touch higher, metals noticeably lower.




Not much going on really, and with 4/5 days being POMO fuelled, there is little reason to expect any significant..and persistant downside.