With US equities seeing some minor chop across the day, the VIX remained in cooling mode, settling -1.9% @ 12.60 (intra low 12.50). Near term outlook is for continued equity upside, which should equate to VIX remaining within the 15/11 zone.
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
The US market remains broadly strong, VIX looks set to remain subdued for at least another month.. perhaps all the way into the FOMC of June 17'th... when a Fed rate rise remains 'just about possible'.
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US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1.6pts @ 2104 (intra high 2111). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish, with new historic highs due for all US indexes.. even the Nasdaq Comp'
sp'60min
Summary
*a touch of weakness in the closing hour, but still.. its micro noise.
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Little to add.
Lots of notable individual stock action - not least NFLX, +18% @ $562, but overall.... a market that is broadly still headed higher.
*I hold long-TWTR overnight.. seeking an exit in the $53s tomorrow.
US equity indexes look set to hold minor gains into the close. VIX is reflecting a market that is increasingly confident as the summer looms, -2% in the 12.50s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. Oil has seen some sig' gains this afternoon, currently +1.1%.
sp'daily5
Summary
Well, once again it was a case of minor morning weakness... only to see a latter day recovery.
Whether you want to blame the algo-bots, numerous fed officials.. or simply 'maniacs buying NFLX.. and other nonsense'... this is no market for the bears.
*I hold TWTR-long into the close.. seeking the $53s tomorrow.
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I think the following sums up the equity bears since 2009.
Dead in the desert
It took me until summer 2013 to finally wave the white flag... yet I know many are still seeking a market crash to bizarrely low levels that make no sense to me.
I hold to what I said almost two years ago.. we'll never trade under sp'1500 EVER again.
Whilst the US equity market continues in micro churn mode, there is a notable collection of maniacs at some movie conference. Disney (DIS) look set to release a truck load of Star Wars movies in the years ahead... with the stock itself one of the hyper Dow leaders... breaking new historic highs.. this very hour.
DIS,monthly
Summary
A truly incredible ramp from the Oct'2011 low of the $26s... to a new historic high.. just now of $108. Indeed, the broader trend has accelerated in recent months.
*DIS earnings due in a few weeks... should be able to claw and hold the 110/115 zone.
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As for the Star Wars live conference (it will last hours)...
Not surprisingly, WTIC oil has turned back positive after moderate weakness across the morning. The $60 threshold is within range before end month. Equities are flirting around break even.. a third consecutive net daily gain looks probable.
USO'60min
Summary
Oil is being bought on every minor pull back.. the $60 threshold remains an easy target before end month.
The real issue is whether it gets stuck around $67... or the mid 70s. Considering the US dollar looks set to confirm a mid term top (more on that later tonight)... $75 looks a 'reasonable' target this summer.
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notable hyper-strength, NFLX, now +16%..
.. as the media highlight talk of $900/1000 upgrades. It would seem many still consider a PE of 250/300 as still a bargain. Hmmm
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US equities remain a little weak, but there remains no downside power. This remains a market broadly strong, with new historic highs for ALL indexes.. including the Nasdaq comp'. Metals moderately weak, Gold -$5. Oil is -0.2%.. but the mid term trend is now powerfully higher.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.. on what is a somewhat dull day.. as another set of IPOs are sold.
Well... whether we close net higher.. or a net lower... what is clear... there simply isn't any significant downside power from the equity bears.
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Meanwhile... a notable IPO... ETSY
The new world economy now also consist of over-priced candles and various household trinkets. If you liked it at $16... will you love it even more at $50?
US equities remain a touch weak, but there is clearly no downside power, and a latter day recovery still looks due. VIX is similarly showing no upside kick... stuck in the low teens. Metals are weakening, Gold -$7. Oil remains a touch negative, but looks set to resume higher.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*CPI data is due tomorrow... and Gold bugs face weakness into the weekend. Price structure remains a large H/S formation, with the giant $1000 threshold still due this summer.
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So... indexes look floored.. and look set to close higher for a third consecutive day. This is no market for the equity bears, and really.. there looks no real hope until mid May.. if not around the time of the June 17'th FOMC.
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notable strength: airlines, DAL +1.6%, UAL +2.4%.... higher oil prices will remain a threat though.
weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG -2.9%, SDRL -3.6%... merely cooling after recent hyper gains.
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time for an early lunch... back at 12pm
US equity indexes open a little weak, but another latter day reversal looks extremely likely. New historic highs in the Dow/SP' look a given. Metals are mixed, Gold +$1. Oil is a touch lower, -0.2%... but seemingly due another net daily gain.
sp'60min
Summary
So... minor weakness to start the day... but it surely won't last.
Market appears in a particularly good mood - not least with 3 IPOs this morning, and most indexes look set for a third consecutive net daily gain.
Tomorrow is opex of course, so... increasing chop appears due.
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Notable strength... NFLX +13% into the $530s...
Much like AMZN, now its a case of 'who cares about earnings... we got more sales!'
By my rough calculation.... AT $530.. the PE is now around 275/300 or so... depending on what outlook for the year you might assume.
What a bizarre market.
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*I remain long TWTR from yesterday afternoon, am seeking the $53/54s within the near term.... but post earnings 57/62.
Yeah.... I'm meddling in momo stocks. Clearly... the end of times.
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2100. However, another latter day recovery would seem highly probable. Metals continue to climb, Gold +$3. Oil is cooling, -1.1%.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly7
Summary
*it is notable that we have a second green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart... there is simply nothing bearish here, and the sp'2130s look due.
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So... we're set to open a little lower, but all things considered, the declines won't likely last long. New historic highs look due, with the R2K/NYSE Comp' already having done it
Earnings are clearly coming in better than most expected, and if that continues, market should easily battle higher into next month.
For me, the only issue is whether we see a short term high by mid May... or mid June. Even then... downside is going to remain very limited unless something scary happens.
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notable strength, NFLX, +12% to $532... as earnings miss.. but hey... if its good enough for AMZN, why doesn't everyone just trade at a loss?
The Nasdaq Comp' saw a net daily gain of 33pts (0.7%) to 5011.. mere 121pts (2.4%) from breaking the March 2000 tech bubble high of 5132. A monthly close in the 5200s would be hyper bullish for the broader market, and be suggestive of a straight run to the 6000s by year end.
Nasdaq comp' monthly'2
Nasdaq comp' daily
Summary
New historic highs were hit today in the R2K and NYSE Comp'. The rest of the indexes - including the Nasdaq Comp', look set to follow in the near term.
Any monthly close in the 5200s would be a powerfully bullish signal, and bode for continued upside.. at least into Sept/Oct.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, housing starts, phil' fed.
*there is a quartet of fed officials on the loose... one of which (Rosengren) is even in my home city of London.
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US equities closed higher for a second consecutive day, sp +10pts @
2106. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.8%
respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, with the sp'2130/40s
viable within the next few weeks. Equity bears have little
realistic hope until at least mid May.
sp'daily5
R2K
NYSE Comp'
Summary
*notable new historic highs for the R2K and the NYSE Comp'
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It was merely another day for the equity bulls, and the rest of the US indexes look set to break new historic highs in the near term.
